Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

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ACommonLoon
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Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:40 am

The main advantage of Hillary being the Dem. candidate over Bernie was Florida, which Hillary went and lost anyway.

Her pick of Kayne for VP helped win VA, sure, Bernie would've lost there.

But Bernie would've won PA, OH, MI, WI, likely AZ, maybe IA, possibly even AK for that matter.

All he would've needed was PA, OH and MI to win the election, even w/o VA. He wouldn't have lost any of the other states Hillary won.

Bernie Sanders should be president elect, dammit! Fuck you, Superdelegates!!!!!

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by northern_goddess » Fri Dec 02, 2016 1:58 am

But would he have, really?

I have to wonder if just as how it played out with Hillary - that many Bernie supporters couldn't bring themselves to vote for her so they stayed home - it would have also played out that way for him.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by DaBaba » Fri Dec 02, 2016 2:09 am

Who knows? Obviously it was a change election. If there were change candidates at the head of both major parties tickets who knows what would have happened? Voters and abstainers on both sides were ready to roll the dice. Maybe Bernie could have won.

But what do I know? I was as surprised as anyone at the outcome. Pleased, but surprised.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by Electrolyte » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:17 am

If the Democrats had run Bernie and lost they'd be a laughingstock.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by korgy » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:17 am

ACommonLoon wrote:Bernie Sanders should be president elect, dammit! Fuck you, Superdelegates!!!!!
Hillary did not win the Democratic primary because she won 3.8 million more votes than Sanders - not because of superdelegates.

why is it that Bernie voters have such a problem with math?
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by korgy » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:18 am

Electrolyte wrote:If the Democrats had run Bernie and lost they'd be a laughingstock.
indeed.

can you imagine what Trump would have done to him?
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by Godjira » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:20 am

Bernie would have focused on the economy, that's fore sure- so, it's a good possibility he could have won.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by korgy » Fri Dec 02, 2016 3:32 am

Godjira wrote:Bernie would have focused on the economy, that's fore sure- so, it's a good possibility he could have won.
yes, there is a possibility he would have won. there was also a possibility Hillary would have won -- about 4 out of 5, in fact.

everyone said Trump would have been out of the GOP race in a few weeks -- that didnt happen.

everyone said once the GOP race narrowed down to a few, Republicans would rally around someone other than Trump and Trump would be out -- that didn't happen.

everyone said Trump saying this or doing that would have eliminated him from the primary. it didnt -- he won the primary.

everyone early on said anyone would beat Trump, and he was a gift to the Dems -- turned out not to be true.

Bernie supporters said he would win the primary against Hillary -- that was bullshit. then they claimed the system was rigged for Hillary. just like Trump did.

after Trump beat Hillary, it seems the system was not rigged after all. but they cant make up their minds.

Bernie supporters will go to their graves knowing in an alternative universe, Bernie would have beaten Trump. the idea of knowing something that never happened seems bizarre to me.

i could say that Hillary would surely have won if Comey-asshole didnt pull his voting week surprise. what difference does it make? Comey DID do that.

i have no interest in people who walk around saying woulda-coulda-shoulda.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by 2wilzgood » Fri Dec 02, 2016 4:15 am

Best meltdown ever.

thanks korks
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:38 am

northern_goddess wrote:But would he have, really?

I have to wonder if just as how it played out with Hillary - that many Bernie supporters couldn't bring themselves to vote for her so they stayed home - it would have also played out that way for him.


Not about a ton of Bernie supporters staying home, it's about Hillary losing gobs of swing votes.

Bernie was actually a godsend to Hillary. He got loads of voters energized and then told them to vote for Hillary even after having all the superdelegates against him, after the DNC chairwoman screwing him over.

The only person who helped Hillary more than Bernie was not her hubby, not the Obamas, not the DNC chairwoman, Megan Kelly or anyone else in the media, not George Clooney or any other dipshit celebrity.

The only one who helped Hillary more than Bernie was Joe Biden.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:39 am

Electrolyte wrote:If the Democrats had run Bernie and lost they'd be a laughingstock.


As if they're not laughingstocks now for having lost to Trump?

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:44 am

korgy wrote:why is it that Bernie voters have such a problem with math?


The thread isn't about subtracting one number from another, it's about recognizing how a candidate having almost 10% of the votes in the bag from the outset can snowball in favor of said candidate, and the disenfranchising of Democratic primary voters.

It's about the Dems failure to understand how dangerous it was running Hillary against anyone left of Ted Cruz.

You want to talk basic math? The Dems should've spent more time calculating how many swing votes they were going to lose just for having Hillary as their candidate.

Sometimes playing shoulda-coulda-woulda can help you prevent repeating mistakes of the past.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by korgy » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:39 am

ACommonLoon wrote: how a candidate...can snowball in favor of said candidate
one can, but he didnt. he lost California, one of the last states in the primary, 56 to 43.

the disenfranchising of Democratic primary voters.
not sure what this means, but Bernie got more than his proportional share of delegates, mainly because of caucuses.

the Dems failure to understand how dangerous it was running Hillary against anyone left of Ted Cruz.
maybe so, but we had a primary, Bernie did not convince enough people besides his ardent supporters that his exaggerated rhetoric was anything but that.

The Dems should've spent more time calculating how many swing votes they were going to lose just for having Hillary as their candidate.
there was a democratic primary, Loon. the primary was not done by committee.

Sometimes playing shoulda-coulda-woulda can help you prevent repeating mistakes of the past.
nothing wrong with reflecting upon all the things that went wrong, but we still dont know that Bernie would have one.

you can change almost any variable and play that game. would Hillary have won of she had campaigned a little in coal country? maybe maybe not. would she have won if Comey didnt steal her last week? maybe maybe not. and so on and so forth.

of course, the biggest variable is what Bernie would have been like against Trump. or if the resources devoted to destroying Hillary for the past year and a half had been devoted to Bernie, who was never expected to be the nominee.

--> i think a more relevant question is this: if we say we should have put Bernie against Trump and Bernie won, what would he have accomplished? maybe we would have had a Jimmy Carter for four years, and the GOP would come back stronger and more focused than they are now. Trump is not really partisan, he is just an ass.

it's all so speculative.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by korgy » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:42 am

oh, another note -- Bernie Sanders was not Barack Obama, who handily defeated Hillary -- Bernie's message was not nearly as positive and inclusive. Obama was a rare politican at the right time-- inspiring, not merely instigating.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by Maxwell » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:51 am

korgy wrote:oh, another note -- Bernie Sanders was not Barack Obama, who handily defeated Hillary -- Bernie's message was not nearly as positive and inclusive. Obama was a rare politican at the right time-- inspiring, not merely instigating.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by 2wilzgood » Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:51 am

korgy wrote:if we say we should have put Bernie against Trump and Bernie won, what would he have accomplished? maybe we would have had a Jimmy Carter for four years, and the GOP would come back stronger and more focused than they are now.


Sanders as a Carter-like President would have led to a Reagan-like President!

So, Hilarity lost, and Trumpf won and rejoice. Because

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by Electrolyte » Fri Dec 09, 2016 2:20 am

JFK would have lost to Larry Flint in this election.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:18 pm

JFK and Larry Flint would've gotten the Supreme Court to declare the election a tie so that they could spend their entire joint administration filming gonzo pornos on the taxpayer's dime.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:43 pm

korgy wrote:you can change almost any variable and play that game. would Hillary have won of she had campaigned a little in coal country? maybe maybe not. would she have won if Comey didnt steal her last week? maybe maybe not. and so on and so forth.

--> i think a more relevant question is this: if we say we should have put Bernie against Trump and Bernie won, what would he have accomplished? maybe we would have had a Jimmy Carter for four years, and the GOP would come back stronger and more focused than they are now. Trump is not really partisan, he is just an ass.


Hillary can't blame Comey, she can only blame herself for that fiasco. But she doesn't.

Bernie at least would have "accomplished" being able to veto legislation from a Republican Congress.

Plenty of right leaning swing-voters agree with you and I regarding teh Donald and would've been happy for an excuse not to vote for him, but Hillary Clinton damn sure wasn't it.

(Will maybe get back to the rest of your response later...)

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by VinnyD » Fri Dec 23, 2016 10:58 pm

Haven't read much of this thread.

Sanders would have lost in a landslide. Kevin Drum.

Could Bernie Sanders have beaten Donald Trump? I think there's almost no chance of that, but since the topic keeps coming up, I feel like I ought to explain why. I know this won't persuade anyone, but the reason is simple: He's just too liberal.

Here's a chart of every Democratic presidential candidate in the postwar era—plus Bernie Sanders. It shows them from least liberal to most liberal. I used NOMINATE to gauge how liberal senators were; this paper to fill in the governors; and a bit of personal judgment to shift a few candidates around. I'm not pretending I got this perfect, but I think it's in the ballpark. Feel free to move folks around if you like.


Image

Very roughly, the scores show how the candidates compare to all of Congress: LBJ was more liberal than two-thirds of Congress, while Bernie Sanders is more liberal than 99 percent of Congress. Winning candidates are in red.

No Democratic candidate with a score below 15 has ever won the presidency. Bernie Sanders, needless to say, is way below 15. There's not a snowball's chance that he could have won the presidency.

Like I said, I don't expect this to persuade anyone. You can always make up a dozen reasons why this time would have been different. But it wouldn't have been. In the end, Trump was treated like an ordinary Republican. Hillary Clinton, after being forced a bit to the left during the primaries, was treated like an ordinary Democrat who was right on the bubble of being too liberal for the country. Both candidates had plenty of personal flaws that they used against each other, but Sanders did too. They were just different than Clinton's. Republicans would have twisted him up like a wet rag and tossed him down the drain.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by korgy » Sun Dec 25, 2016 5:43 am

makes sense to me, but --as Drum says -- "I don't expect this to persuade anyone. You can always make up a dozen reasons why this time would have been different". the Bernsters will always believe, just because.
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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by Chip_Oatley » Sun Dec 25, 2016 3:32 pm

I've only heard "Bernie would have won. Right?" from some non-American friends.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by nycfellow » Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:30 pm

I stopped predicting anything around March. The Trump victory was incredibly difficult to predict - lots of Republican leaders had moved on the planning the next election before this one was over. And of course Hillary indeed won the popular vote - though some of the best analysts had said Trump would have an advantage in the Electoral College in a close election. Bernie v. Trump? Honestly, I have no clue.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:33 am

any chart ranking how liberal Democratic candidates were wouldn't be accounting for the fact that none of said candidates ever ran against a Donald Trump.

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Re: Was There a Thread About How Bernie Would've Won?

Post by ACommonLoon » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:44 am

korgy wrote:
ACommonLoon wrote: how a candidate...can snowball in favor of said candidate
one can, but he didnt. he lost California, one of the last states in the primary, 56 to 43.

the disenfranchising of Democratic primary voters.
not sure what this means, but Bernie got more than his proportional share of delegates, mainly because of caucuses.

the Dems failure to understand how dangerous it was running Hillary against anyone left of Ted Cruz.
maybe so, but we had a primary, Bernie did not convince enough people besides his ardent supporters that his exaggerated rhetoric was anything but that.


The superdelegates are the committee. The snowball effect might've contributed to Hillary's margin of victory in CA, if perhaps not the win/loss. Superdelegates votes count thousands of times as much as a regular voters, which at least semi-disenfranchises if not outright.

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