It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Berning Trumpeters vs The Establishment

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Citizen Baba
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:33 pm

Rasmussen's sampling size is 1500 with a 2.5% margin of error. That means that if it was a proportionate sample, about 180 of them would be black, and the margin of error would be enormous.

I do realize saying this is like trying to teach a moose to read.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:38 pm

My guess is Trump gets about 3-4% of the black vote.

I'd wager my house and retirement fund he doesn't get 20%.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:40 pm

Where is the source from Rasmussen? The only source for these stats is some guy's Twitter account.

Plus he claims it's a rolling 3 day average. 19%, 19%, 24%!? Smells worse than Lost Soul's outhouse on Sunday morning.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:52 pm

eric84 wrote:It can be a 5 point margin and still be considered a toss up? Yeah, that's not terribly helpful.
eric, i'm guessing +5 is their cutoff. Hillary is now up 4.9 in PA (RCP avg).

but i disagree with you -- i think it is better that they are conservative when choosing to move states out of "toss-up", considering how widely apart the polls are.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:05 pm

She's up 2% in the IBD poll!!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:05 pm

Strange then that they don't have Utah and Alaska in toss up territory.

There's an NYT story about the one 19 year old black supporter of Trump that is literally skewing LA Times polls to show black support for trump at like 20% despite all other evidence otherwise.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:41 am

eric84 wrote:Strange then that they don't have Utah and Alaska in toss up territory.
Trump is still @ +5.5 avg in Utah, even w/ McMullin -- of course, the polls have been sparse. not sure what the reason is for ALaska, where Trump is only 3 points ahead.

OTOH, they moved Texas and Georgia from leaning Trump to now being in toss-up status, a few days ago.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:12 am

A three-point lead is not a toss-up.

We had a thread about the one young black male who has been skewing the LA Times poll.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:49 am

You are the calm in the lefterdic storm, Vinny.

Keep hope alive!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Thu Oct 27, 2016 12:29 pm

Lost Soul wrote:You are the calm in the lefterdic storm, Vinny.

Keep hope alive!


Have you mailed your check yet, bitch? Please do so.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:32 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... .html?_r=2

Pennsylvania poll today. Trump's share of the black vote? 1%.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by polardude1 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:38 pm

Pennsylvania poll today. Trump's share of the black vote? 1%.

Well if there is a transit strike in Philly on election day, making getting to work a challenge, turn out can be screwed up. The contract expires on Oct 30 and a strike vote has passed.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:51 pm

eric84 wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?_r=2

Pennsylvania poll today. Trump's share of the black vote? 1%.

What percentage of those 90% will bother to go to the polls?
The fervor of traditional Democrats isn't very high this year.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:52 pm

We shall see, won't we? I would think saying the election is rigged would keep Trump voters away too but who knows?
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:42 pm

Jim-2012 wrote:
eric84 wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html?_r=2

Pennsylvania poll today. Trump's share of the black vote? 1%.

What percentage of those 90% will bother to go to the polls?
The fervor of traditional Democrats isn't very high this year.



How did you reach that conclusion, Jimbo. Early voting is up substantially in democratic leaning districts. Talking out your ass as usual.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/early-votin ... -1.3133547

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by polardude1 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 4:44 pm

Jim
What percentage of those 90% will bother to go to the polls?
The fervor of traditional Democrats isn't very high this year.


Jim
We shall see. Fervor works both ways.

The 2 large metro areas usually determine who carries the state
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:32 pm

VinnyD wrote:A three-point lead is not a toss-up.
Vinny, i wish you would follow these threads if you choose to respond.

the conversation initiated when i was talking about RCP moving states OUT of the Clinton category when they fell below 5% for a state, and into the toss-up status. they moved PA into "toss-up" for example. i said i agreed with RCP that it should be conservative in declaring a state win for a candidate when the polls are so widely varied -- since the RCP number is just an average. eric thought that a state close to 5% should not be a toss-up anymore.

so Vinny, are you saying PA at 4.9% for Clinton is NOT a toss-up? or are you only interested in pointing out when you feel people are too enthusiastic/complacent about Hillary? why is Alaska at 3% for Trump NOT a tossup, when Hillary at 4.9 in PA IS a toss-up?

that is what eric was asking.

do you know?
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 6:40 pm

Vinny:

today, PA is back to +5 Hillary in the RCP average. but RCP still lists it as "toss up".

you wrote, regarding Alaska, that "a three-point lead is not a toss-up."

so, do you also think a 5 point lead in PA is not a toss-up for Hillary? that it should be declared leaning for Hillary? are there different standards for Alaska and Pennsylvania?

that was the question asked by eric.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by sodelicious » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:27 pm

Korgy, you're Vinnying Vinny.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:30 pm

no kidding. but i genuinely would like to know what he is trying to say when he says a 3-point lead is not a toss-up. maybe that only applies to Alaska.

by that measure, many of the states with +3 or higher for Hillary are not longer toss-up states. they are Hillary states.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:40 pm

I wasn't talking about RCP, which I don't look at.

I was expressing my opinion that you should only call a state a toss-up if you can't tell which candidate is leading there with some degree of certainty.

If a half a dozen reasonably accurate polls all say that Candidate A is leading by 0.5%, I would say that stqte is leaning towards Candidate A. If three polls give Candidate A leads of 0.5%, 2%, and 3.5%, and the other three give Candidate B leads of 1%, 2%, and 3%, I would call that state a toss-up.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 7:45 pm

I say if you have a lead which is outside the margin of error, then it's not a toss up. Sample size of polls is key here.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:20 pm

got it Vinny.

so instead of
a 3-point lead is not a toss-up
what you really meant was:
I was expressing my opinion that you should only call a state a toss-up if you can't tell which candidate is leading there with some degree of certainty.


thanks. that's very different.

(RCP, btw, is just a list of polls. they have a certain way of averaging them over a period based upon how recent they are, without repeating any pollster. not sure what poll exactly you consider relevant with your term "three point lead".)
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Thu Oct 27, 2016 9:52 pm

VinnyD wrote:I wasn't talking about RCP, which I don't look at.

538 is showing Hillary at a 5.9 lead in PA, which is more than the RCP average.

so Vinny, do you consider PA to be a toss-up state? if so, i guess you really did not mean what you said when you made that comment about the three point lead.
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so WHO is in a panic?

Post by FUUZ » Thu Oct 27, 2016 10:01 pm

It's ''panic time'' for WHO, precisely?
For' 'libtard'' ''dumbocrats''?

It looks more like ''repugnant-kins'' Trump's--bullshiteaters would be in a panic.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:48 pm

Diamond and Silk voted for Donald J. Trump on Tuesday October 25, 2016. They encourage everyone to get out and vote. "We must take back our country";
Silk felt like she was liberated.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Thu Oct 27, 2016 11:58 pm

Voting for Trump would certainly make you feel liberated, much like cutting off your head would cure a headache.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Nines » Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:40 am

Godjira wrote:Voting for Trump would certainly make you feel liberated, much like cutting off your head would cure a headache.

Every time I click on this branch you are the top poster. I find it interesting that somebody that doesn't even live in this country spends so much time and energy posting liberal viewpoints 24/7.

Dude, take a breath of fresh air. Your nonstop insults are getting old.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Fri Oct 28, 2016 4:52 am

That wasn't an insult, it was an observation!

And, it's raining out!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Fri Oct 28, 2016 5:35 am

eric84 wrote:I say if you have a lead which is outside the margin of error, then it's not a toss up. Sample size of polls is key here.

Are you sure that your understanding of "margin of error" is correct?

If A has a two-point lead in a poll with a three-point margin of error, A is more likely to be ahead than B. You know that, right?

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Fri Oct 28, 2016 5:37 am

korgy wrote:
VinnyD wrote:I wasn't talking about RCP, which I don't look at.

538 is showing Hillary at a 5.9 lead in PA, which is more than the RCP average.

so Vinny, do you consider PA to be a toss-up state? if so, i guess you really did not mean what you said when you made that comment about the three point lead.

I said that a three-point lead was not a toss-up. A fortiori. neither is a 5.9 point lead. 538 doesn't show Pennsylvania as a toss-up. I have lost track of your point.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Fri Oct 28, 2016 2:02 pm

VinnyD wrote: I have lost track of your point.
eric and i were having a discussion about the Real Clear Politics poll averages. PA had been moved to "Toss-up" status when the poll average went to 4.9 for Hillary. RCP was showing Alaska as having a 3 point lead for Trump. we asked why.

you responded by saying a three-point lead is not a tossup. later you said you dont look at RCP. which is what we were discussing. get it?

as far as i know, Five-thirty-eight does not categorize races as "toss-ups", but maybe i am wrong, all the states are colored in blue, light blue, pink, or red. it estimates leads and percentages of winning possibilities.

in any case, we were discussing Real Clear Politics. we were not discussing five-thirty-eight.

it would be like two people talking about the inside of a navel orange being orange. then someone else with a blood orange comes on and says "the inside of an orange is red". and then later says, "well i dont eat navel ranges because blood oranges are better."

[btw, the expressions "3-point lead" or "5 point lead" are not some sort of absolute principles in physics. they depend upon who is quantifying them, and how.]
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Moethebartender » Fri Oct 28, 2016 6:50 pm

Nines wrote:
Godjira wrote:Voting for Trump would certainly make you feel liberated, much like cutting off your head would cure a headache.

Every time I click on this branch you are the top poster. I find it interesting that somebody that doesn't even live in this country spends so much time and energy posting liberal viewpoints 24/7.

Dude, take a breath of fresh air. Your nonstop insults are getting old.


He's making it his mission to turn this branch into his personal blog. His viewpoints are his viewpoints. Calling someone who disagrees with you a bitch can't really be classified as a 'liberal' viewpoint.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Fri Oct 28, 2016 10:20 pm

IBD has Hillary up 3%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by RedsailsII » Sat Oct 29, 2016 1:07 am

In the horror movies, Evil is laid to rest with about 10 minutes left until roll-the-credits time.

The audience is starting to lose interest, feeling in the bottom of the popcorn bag for a couple of loose kernels.

But what's that?! Evil's Back!, for one last lurch at the female lead, before someone puts a stake between his pectorals.

THAT's DONNIE! Ten minutes until election time. But he aint dead yet.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by section8 » Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:42 am

Wow, just wow.

A poll of likely voters in Alaska shows Hillary Clinton with a growing lead over Donald Trump particularly with younger voters and women, mirroring trends seen in the lower-48. Craciun Research surveyed 400 voters and found 47-43 leaning for the Democratic nominee with less than two weeks until Election Day.



http://www.craciunresearch.com/clinton-leads-trump-by-4-pts-in-alaska/
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:49 pm

Trump is now up by 5.4% over Shamu, nationally. Thanks, FBI.

You go girl!

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Nov 02, 2016 1:55 pm

In the LA Times Poll.

But, in your favorite Jesus-like poll, Hillary is ahead by 2.

PS. You're an idiot.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:05 pm

Godjira wrote:In the LA Times Poll.

But, in your favorite Jesus-like poll, Hillary is ahead by 2.

Only because they haven't updated it yet to account for the FBI, for fucks sake.

I'm confident Ahilla will have dropped four points, or more, by now. And more's the pity.

I hope you'll take over the gorky watch next Tuesday. He's going to need a care giver.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Nov 02, 2016 2:43 pm

I hope you have plenty of Xanax on hand for next week. And get your $50 ready. Win or loose, Trump still won't get 5% of the black vote.

But, he will lose. You're like the Bizzaro World Nate Silver.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by mad hatter » Wed Nov 02, 2016 3:30 pm

gosh kids isnt it close

mooooo
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by section8 » Wed Nov 02, 2016 9:44 pm

I thought the polls and the FBI were corrupt.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:14 am

The IBD poll turned to Trump today, as predicted.

section8 wrote:I thought the polls and the FBI were corrupt.

The alphabet polls are, for sure. They oversample, undersample, and do whatever it takes to push their meme. The Podesta emails are full of that stuff. That Hillary! 12 point lead last week? It was bullshit. But, as crooked as they are, ABC, NBS, CBS and CNN polls do converge toward sanity as the election approaches, so they can maintain a shred of credibility.


This just in: Florida is going for Trump. It's panic time, Stewbies!

Six days before Election Day in 2012, Democrats in Florida had cast about 39,000 more votes than Republicans. Today, six days before Election Day 2016, Republicans have cast about 17,000 more votes than Democrats.

We can parse the numbers in terms of whether Republicans have banked more voters certain to vote anyway or whether it's fair to compare 2012's longer early vote period to the shorter one four years ago. The bottom line, though, is that Democrats in Florida so far are performing worse than expected and Republicans better.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/early-vote-trend-favoring-gop-in-florida/2301035
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by section8 » Thu Nov 03, 2016 12:25 am

Hillary can lose all the swing states except for Virginia and Pennsylvania (neither of which are polling as swing states - solid H states) and still win.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:03 am

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:28 am

One of these three isn't panicking. Can you guess which one?

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:39 am

Lost Soul wrote:One of these three isn't panicking. Can you guess which one?

Ha ha. His smile reveals the lack of panic.
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It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:41 am

Which one has no future career, like Jim and Loose?
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:49 am

Huma can always go back to editing her family's Mooslum newspaper.

The other two are through.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by section8 » Thu Nov 03, 2016 1:52 am

Fucking weiner. :lol:

H has to lose VA or PA in order to lose. Trump has already bailed on VA, so when is PA going swing in support of a nuclear KSA?
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