It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Berning Trumpeters vs The Establishment
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section8
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by section8 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:37 pm

IBD has been compromised!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:47 pm

heh

Rasmussen too
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 3:49 pm

Even the much vaunted LA times poll has Hillary ahead. They're all rigged, dark polls!!!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:12 pm

i'm a little concerned about Ohio -- Nate Silver has Ohio leaning for Hillary in both the polls and the polls plus forecast. but RCP actually shows Ohio leaning to Trump now.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:14 pm

of course, Hillary does not have to win Ohio if she wins a few of the other battleground states -- it would be nice though
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 4:15 pm

Very possible that Ohio is no longer a bellweather state.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by section8 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:15 pm

I saw something about trumpy-doodle pulling out of Virginia.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:17 pm

actually, he was campaigning there yesterday -- to the amusement and dismay of everyone trying help him. he has almost no chance of winning that state.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:43 pm

interesting -- the RCP map now has Hillary at 272 WITHOUT Ohio, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina or Nevada. i cant see any states they have tinted blue that Trump could likely win.

the last two states they moved into Hillary-leaning were Michigan and Minnesota. RCP is very conservative -- they wait until a candidate has a clear lead to place in in either red or blue.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by sodelicious » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:17 pm

That's interesting, Secretary Clinton could lose all toss up states and still win.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:24 pm

well, Pennsylvania and Virginia were at one time considered toss-ups in this election
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:12 pm

Trump could win Pennsylvania. And the election.

Today is October 25.

Not November 7.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:26 pm

i dont think any of us knew that Vinny. what would we do without you?
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by cowtown » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:28 pm

I agree with Vinny, this thinking it’s in the bag and the gloating is toxic
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:42 pm

cowtown wrote:I agree with Vinny, this thinking it’s in the bag and the gloating is toxic
no one is thinking anything is in the bag, some of us actually are capable of discussing the ever-changing polls, tendencies and probabilities without believing that anything is certain.

i got tired of writing "of course anything could happen, and we still have____ until the election" (which i have written many times) just appease a few people here or pre-empt their posting the same. i got tired of stating that 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 chance of a Trump win is not absolutely certain because i assume most intelligent people know that.

if something happened that caused the polls to move towards Trump in the next two weeks, it would be a major, major news story -- it would not be simply that people forgot that the election was not 100% certain. no candidate has ever come back this late in the election, which is why it would be a major news story.

but that doesn't mean it couldnt happen!!! no, it certainly doesnt!!!! it could happen!!!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:08 pm

It's time to PANIC!!!!!!!!'

IBD poll has Hillary up by 1!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:39 pm

TRUMP on Track to Win More Black Votes Than Any GOP Candidate Since 1960
Jim Hoft Oct 25th, 2016 5:19 pm

Black Likely Voters for TRUMP @Rasmussen_Poll
Oct 17 - 17%
Oct 18 - 19%
Oct 19 - 18%
Oct 20 - 15%
Oct 21 - 16%
Oct 24 - 15%
Oct 25 - 16%
11:48 AM - 25 Oct 2016
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:45 pm

Trump isn't going to get 5% of the black vote, I am not sure what poll results you are looking at or what they mean, but they don't mean what you think, champ
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by FUUZ » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:45 pm

Jim-2012 wrote:Black Likely Voters for TRUMP @Rasmussen_PollOct 17 - 17%Oct 18 - 19%Oct 19 - 18%Oct 20 - 15%Oct 21 - 16%Oct 24 - 15%Oct 25 - 16%


would seem to show (if figures are correct) how desperate blacks are. Like they are so fed up they will vote for the Devil.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:53 pm

Korgy, if the election were held today, Trump would have almost a one in six chance of winning, per 538.

Almost like rolling a single die.

That is not an impossibility, nor even a wickedly long shot. Horses win at seven to one every day.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:04 am

FUUZ wrote:
Jim-2012 wrote:Black Likely Voters for TRUMP @Rasmussen_PollOct 17 - 17%Oct 18 - 19%Oct 19 - 18%Oct 20 - 15%Oct 21 - 16%Oct 24 - 15%Oct 25 - 16%


would seem to show (if figures are correct) how desperate blacks are. Like they are so fed up they will vote for the Devil.

Where is my $50 googoo?
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:07 am

VinnyD wrote:Korgy, if the election were held today, Trump would have almost a one in six chance of winning, per 538.

Almost like rolling a single die.

That is not an impossibility, nor even a wickedly long shot. Horses win at seven to one every day.


VINNY:

i have never said otherwise.

what is wrong you?

is it a reading comprehension problem?
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by 2wilzgood » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:17 am

If you want to know why the 2016 version of the US Presidential Election branch is the worst branch in the history of the stew, go back and read through this thread.

You won't need to read any of the other threads.

Talk Politics sometimes has a few worthy threads on the trot. This branch? Sucks Ass
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:21 am

FUUZ wrote:
Jim-2012 wrote:Black Likely Voters for TRUMP @Rasmussen_PollOct 17 - 17%Oct 18 - 19%Oct 19 - 18%Oct 20 - 15%Oct 21 - 16%Oct 24 - 15%Oct 25 - 16%


would seem to show (if figures are correct) how desperate blacks are. Like they are so fed up they will vote for the Devil.

As Diamond & Silk say, some of them are getting wise to the fact that the Dems are just using them to continue their power, and the Dems don't really care about their community at all.
I doubt if a lot of them will vote for Trump, but their participation in the election will be far down compared to 2008 & 2012. That might be enough to be a factor in swing states.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:39 am

Lost Soul wrote:
FUUZ wrote:
Jim-2012 wrote:Black Likely Voters for TRUMP @Rasmussen_PollOct 17 - 17%Oct 18 - 19%Oct 19 - 18%Oct 20 - 15%Oct 21 - 16%Oct 24 - 15%Oct 25 - 16%


would seem to show (if figures are correct) how desperate blacks are. Like they are so fed up they will vote for the Devil.

Where is my $50 googoo?


I'm going to mail a check to section8 tonight. You'd better do the same ASAP, buddy- because we all know you're going to lose. Trump will get less than 5% of the black vote.

When do those official exit polls come out? I want a real poll- the "Exit polls conducted by Edison Research of Somerville, New Jersey, for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, and NBC News."

It might be a few weeks after, but just send it out before you spend it all on liquor.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:44 am

Jim-2012 wrote:
FUUZ wrote:
Jim-2012 wrote:Black Likely Voters for TRUMP @Rasmussen_PollOct 17 - 17%Oct 18 - 19%Oct 19 - 18%Oct 20 - 15%Oct 21 - 16%Oct 24 - 15%Oct 25 - 16%


would seem to show (if figures are correct) how desperate blacks are. Like they are so fed up they will vote for the Devil.

As Diamond & Silk say, some of them are getting wise to the fact that the Dems are just using them to continue their power, and the Dems don't really care about their community at all.
I doubt if a lot of them will vote for Trump, but their participation in the election will be far down compared to 2008 & 2012. That might be enough to be a factor in swing states.


Diamond and Silk are actresses selling Trump products, you sucker.

Republicans do not care about black people, and in fact, most wish the black population would disappear
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:48 am

This is going to be an ass-kicking. No way Trump gets 15% of black votes.

The self-delusion on the right on this board is as bad as it was four years ago. One would figure with rational people that reality would teach a lesson.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:59 am

Diamond and Silk are actresses selling Trump products, you sucker.

If you don't like D & S, maybe you like Don King:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbhYbjFxmZo

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:00 am

Trump is the white Don King.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:35 am

Trump had a rally and a white hand was holding up a Blacks for Trump sign. Classic.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by northern_goddess » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:36 am

eric84 wrote:Trump had a rally and a white hand was holding up a Blacks for Trump sign. Classic.


It might have been an Aboriginal (Black) Australian.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Wed Oct 26, 2016 7:58 am

Korgy, you said "if something happened that caused the polls to move towards Trump in the next two weeks, it would be a major, major news story," and I pointed out that even if the election were held today, Trump would have a reasonable chance of winning. He could win on election day without the polls changing at all.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by shunter » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:28 pm

I would guess the probabilities 538 show overestimate trumps chances. His chances are firmly in the tail of the distribution where there's a lack of good data and paramatisi g his model is little better than a punt. I think he's said similar himself.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:48 pm

I don't know what paramatisi g means, nor even paramatising.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:52 pm

Why 538 gives Trump a better chance of winning than do other sources.
Short answer: Because presidential elections don't happen that often, so there isn't a lot of data, and because life in general is uncertain.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Oct 26, 2016 12:57 pm

VinnyD wrote:Why 538 gives Trump a better chance of winning than do other sources.
Short answer: Because presidential elections don't happen that often, so there isn't a lot of data, and because life in general is uncertain.

And then there is the matter of Trump winning a fifth of the black vote.

That will send DNC pulses racing, and will have the effect of tipping NC, FL, and maybe VA and PA off the plantation.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:03 pm

Here is the DNC panic room, in action.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/trump-track-win-black-votes-gop-candidate-since-1960/
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:17 pm

LS is smoking dried moose turds again, just like in 2008 when he predicted McCain would win, and 2012 when he predicted Romney would win.

Trump has zero chance of getting 20% of the black vote. In fact, Trump will do historically bad with the black vote. He won't even get in double digits:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-in-fourth-place-among-black-voters/

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:47 pm

Have no fear, Sigh.

My bad link above says that Maryland will remain safely in the bosom of the Dumbocrats even after a fifth of the blacks there vote Pubic.

But it's enough to flip NC, FL, VA and Ohio. And that's a beautiful thing.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by VinnyD » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:48 pm

Lost Soul wrote:
VinnyD wrote:Why 538 gives Trump a better chance of winning than do other sources.
Short answer: Because presidential elections don't happen that often, so there isn't a lot of data, and because life in general is uncertain.

And then there is the matter of Trump winning a fifth of the black vote.

That will send DNC pulses racing, and will have the effect of tipping NC, FL, and maybe VA and PA off the plantation.

I don't understand, LS. You think 538's formula weights those polls that give Trump a relatively high percentage of black votes more than the other aggregators do?

Which polls, and what makes you think that 538 is giving them more weight?

They have Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania by 6.2 points; Virginia by 8.2.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:54 pm

There was a bad link in my post, Vinny. This is what I'm talking about.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/trump-track-win-black-votes-gop-candidate-since-1960/
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:12 pm

Citizen Baba wrote:LS is smoking dried moose turds again, just like in 2008 when he predicted McCain would win, and 2012 when he predicted Romney would win.

Trump has zero chance of getting 20% of the black vote. In fact, Trump will do historically bad with the black vote. He won't even get in double digits:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-in-fourth-place-among-black-voters/


It's amazing, isn't it? I remember his mantra 4 years ago was that the polls were skewed and that Romney would win. They never learn.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by birdlite » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:26 pm

Jim-2012 wrote:
Diamond and Silk are actresses selling Trump products, you sucker.

If you don't like D & S, maybe you like Don King:


Convicted killer?

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by cuchulainn » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:29 pm

The Alaskan hermit must be a masochist.

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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:09 pm

eric84 wrote:
Citizen Baba wrote:LS is smoking dried moose turds again, just like in 2008 when he predicted McCain would win, and 2012 when he predicted Romney would win.

Trump has zero chance of getting 20% of the black vote. In fact, Trump will do historically bad with the black vote. He won't even get in double digits:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-in-fourth-place-among-black-voters/


It's amazing, isn't it? I remember his mantra 4 years ago was that the polls were skewed and that Romney would win. They never learn.


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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Wed Oct 26, 2016 4:14 pm

VinnyD wrote:Korgy, you said "if something happened that caused the polls to move towards Trump in the next two weeks, it would be a major, major news story," and I pointed out that even if the election were held today, Trump would have a reasonable chance of winning. He could win on election day without the polls changing at all.


one possibility does not preclude the other, nor have i ever suggested otherwise. the example i used of the polls reversing does not preclude the possibility of the polls NOT reversing, and Trump still having a chance of winning on November 7th.

if the polls moved in his favor between now and election day, it would indeed be a major news story -- just as i wrote. if the polls did NOT move, and he won on election day -- **which he could possibly do, as you continually remind us** -- it would be an even MORE major news story.

today, his chances according to 538 are slightly better than yesterday.

however, a 16% chance today has a different context and meaning than a 16% chance on November 7th. a 16% chance today includes all the campaign and news cycle possibilities that can happen between now and then, and upon the possibility of polls tightening. a 16% chance on November 7th would probably be based on the polls being either CLOSER then than they are now, or on the possibility of them being simply wrong, rather than on anything that could happen overnight.
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Jim-2012 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 9:51 pm

Despite most indicators showing Donald Trump well behind his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the key states he needs to win the Nov. 8 presidential election, populist filmmaker Michael Moore has long argued that the Republican nominee has more support than people may think.

At a recent promotional event for his new film “Michael Moore in TrumpLand,” Moore told audience members that he thinks the loudmouthed GOP nominee is going to win, largely because American elites are so cut off from regular people that they don’t realize just how much the middle class has been harmed in recent years.

“I know a lot of people in Michigan that are planning to vote for Trump, and they don’t necessarily agree with him,” the left-leaning documentarian said.

Many middle- to lower-income people are going to support the former reality TV star because at least he uses language directly pertinent to issues that have affected their lives, Moore argued.

“Donald Trump came to the Detroit Economic Club and stood there in front of Ford Motor executives and said, ‘If you close these factories as you’re planning to do in Detroit and build them in Mexico, I’m going to put a 35 percent tariff on those cars when you send them back and nobody’s going to buy them.’ It was an amazing thing to see. No politician, Republican or Democrat, had ever said anything like that to these executives, and it was music to the ears of people in Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the ‘Brexit states.’”

Trump’s sincerity in wanting to stand up for the average Joe doesn’t even matter, Moore argued, because voting for him is a giant message that disaffected Americans will be happy to send to media and political elites who they see as not caring about them.

“Trump’s election is going to be the biggest ‘fuck you’ ever recorded in human history — and it will feel good,” Moore argued.

“Whether Trump means it or not is kind of irrelevant because he’s saying the things to people who are hurting, and that’s why every beaten-down, nameless, forgotten working stiff who used to be part of what was called the middle class loves Trump,” Moore continued. “He is the human Molotov cocktail that they’ve been waiting for, the human hand grenade that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them.”

Moore has repeatedly made clear that he does not support Trump, just that he can see why some people choose to. (He supported Sen. Bernie Sanders during the Democratic primaries and now supports Clinton.)

In an interview with Rolling Stone about “TrumpLand,” the filmmaker said he thought many Trump supporters viewed voting for him as a way of being “legal terrorists.” For that reason, people who oppose Trump need to be more careful in how they do so, Moore argued.

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/26/michael-moore-people-will-vote-for-donald-trump-as-a-giant-fk-you-and-hell-win/
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by korgy » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:10 pm

interesting -- the RCP national average has moved up slightly for Hillarity since this morning (due to newly released polls), but PA has now been moved into "toss-up" status because it is now .1 % below +5 for Hillary.
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eric84
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by eric84 » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:23 pm

It can be a 5 point margin and still be considered a toss up? Yeah, that's not terribly helpful.
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Godjira
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Re: It's Panic Time, Stewbies!

Post by Godjira » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:23 pm

Lost Soul wrote:There was a bad link in my post, Vinny. This is what I'm talking about.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/trump-track-win-black-votes-gop-candidate-since-1960/


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