Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

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Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Annotated » Tue May 17, 2016 11:34 pm

According to an NBC (Nobody But Clinton) poll, it now stands at Clinton 48% / Trump 45% among registered voters.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-el ... ll-n574901
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Godjira » Tue May 17, 2016 11:38 pm

Tighten? That's worse than Trump was doing against Clinton late last year, you jackass.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Annotated » Tue May 17, 2016 11:40 pm

her margin over Trump narrows from 5 points last week to 3 points this week to 48 percent to 45 percent
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Godjira » Tue May 17, 2016 11:43 pm

from 2.5 points last January, etc. etc. etc.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by 2wilzgood » Wed May 18, 2016 12:09 am

Those numbers are meaningful only if it is in fact Hilarity v Drumpf in November. And then they are still not meaningful because +/- 3%, and the 7% undecided.

If it is Hilarity v Drumpf v Random Not Libertarian Third "Party" Candidate the calculation changes.

Hell, the calculation changes every day until the night of November 8.

Bush was awarded the presidency in 2000 (after the fact of an actual election), and stole it in 2004.

A black man was elected in 2008. Who the fuck knows what is about to happen?

Trump? Hillary? Are you fucking kidding me? Polls this far out are meaningless.

That said, if I could see again Karl Rove having his live on air meltdown I'd happily leave the country while Hilarity does her worst.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Stephen_Dedalus » Wed May 18, 2016 12:14 am

He was mixed race.

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Godjira » Wed May 18, 2016 12:31 am

Yeah, but you have to admit- Hillary is almost certain to win.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by mad hatter » Wed May 18, 2016 12:34 am

Godjira wrote:Yeah, but you have to admit- Hillary is almost certain to win.

Really?

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Annotated » Wed May 18, 2016 1:04 am

mad hatter wrote:
Godjira wrote:Yeah, but you have to admit- Hillary is almost certain to win.

Really?


No. It's way too early.

Nobody can blow a 50 point lead like Hillary. And on top of it, she may be in jail by the time the election comes.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by mad hatter » Wed May 18, 2016 1:07 am

Annotated wrote:
mad hatter wrote:
Godjira wrote:Yeah, but you have to admit- Hillary is almost certain to win.

Really?


No. It's way too early.

Nobody can blow a 50 point lead like Hillary. And on top of it, she may be in jail by the time the election comes.

Thanks was confirming my thoughts.

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Godjira » Wed May 18, 2016 1:17 am

Well, almost certain, but not absolutely certain.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by eric84 » Wed May 18, 2016 1:52 am

Poll fluctuations at this point, especially cherry picked ones, don't mean much at this point. Look at the election predictor sites like the Cook Political Report to give you an idea the uphill battle Trump has going state to state.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by dBrother » Wed May 18, 2016 3:08 pm

Godjira wrote:Well, almost certain, but not absolutely certain.


I'm seeing the hate felt for entrenched political party members in the US, just like trump was the democratically chosen, by the people, republican candidate and the party itself have done everything possible not to have this reality thrust upon them, the democrats have actually got away with shafting their democratically chosen candidate via the super delegate system. And have thrust an unwanted Hillary upon the people with all her baggage, and there's lots of it.
Face it, she isn't the popular choice as candidate for her party, trump is.
Where mud gets thrown at trump and he just says "yeah , what of it", the mud falls off.
There is an equal amount of mud being chucked Hillary's way and some of it's sticking, to me, if I was a working class mortgage holder, her association with Goldman Sachs (did she actually do a speech? If not what have they bought with all that money?) would be a deal breaker alone.

Give me a green card and I'd vote Sanders at the drop of a hat, but its looking like that's not going to be an option come November..
So trump gets my vote by default.

Let's Be honest, he's got more charisma about him than any republican since Nixon..

And charisma, even if it is from A blatant narcissist (aka megalomaniac- which is what he undoubtedly is) is going to trump whatever Hillary is offering.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by VinnyD » Wed May 18, 2016 3:23 pm

Polls in the spring of an election year always predict the winner accurately. If you don't believe me, ask President Ross Perot.

Having said that, six months ago the polls were showing Donald Trump in the lead among Republicans, and almost everybody pooh-poohed them, saying that four years earlier Herman Cain (or somebody) had been in the lead.

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Kilombo » Wed May 18, 2016 3:37 pm

That's one poll. The average of polls shows more advantage for Hillary and I am quite sure that the margin of accuracy of these polls is getting higher for the simple reason that it is a more complicated election to do the polls.
It is currently an advantage for Hillary so, if recent polls are really getting tighter for 2 main reasons.
1) It will be easier for here to move the democrats as many actually might think that the election is already won.
2) It will force people to vote for Hillary who would not have voted at all for the simple reason to vote against Trump
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Right_Turn » Wed May 18, 2016 3:57 pm

Forget the national polls.

Show me the states that = 270 for Trump.

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Invincible_Gamera » Wed May 18, 2016 5:20 pm

Hillary will lose unless she can bring in Independents and left-leaning Democrats. And I don't think she can. I know she won't have me.

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by VinnyD » Wed May 18, 2016 5:31 pm

About 46% of the population identifies as independent. 26% Republican, 29% Democratic. So yes, you're right, unless Hillary Clinton can get votes from independents, she will certainly lose.

If she gets no votes from either independents or left-leaning Democrats, her loss will be by an even greater margin.

On the other hand, she doesn't need to attract as high a percentage of independents as Trump does.

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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Kilombo » Wed May 18, 2016 8:13 pm

I don't think it will be very complicated to get votes from independents for Hillary considering the hate Trump can provoke
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Godjira » Thu May 19, 2016 12:05 am

Hillary will definitely get more than 50% of the female vote. No doubt. Probably 60% or better. Add in the Latino, black, and most other minorities, and there you have it.

The odds are nearly insurmountable for Trump at this point.

That's not to say that it's impossible, but any point of view that does not seriously consider Trump as an underdog at this point in time is just masturbation.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Annotated » Thu May 19, 2016 1:54 am

Kilombo wrote:I don't think it will be very complicated to get votes from independents for Hillary considering the hate Trump can provoke


LOL!

You've got Dumbocrats threatening to kill other Dumbocrats because of Hillary.

Anyone who thinks Hillary has this wrapped up at this point is fool.
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by Lost Soul » Thu May 19, 2016 4:31 am

Trump is more favorable to voters than Crooked Hillary!

Buh Bye, wench.

American voters dislike Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

A record 61 percent have a negative view of the likely Democratic nominee, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. That’s up from 58 percent in March.

Fifty-six percent have an unfavorable view of Trump -- though that’s actually good news for Donald. Because it was 65 percent two months ago (that was a record high).

Thirty-seven percent have a favorable opinion of Clinton, down two points from 39 percent in March, establishing a new low. The likely Republican nominee’s favorable jumped over the same time period: 41 percent view Trump positively, up from 31 percent in March.


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/05/18/fox-news-poll-clintons-negatives-surpass-trumps.html?intcmp=hpbt1
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by dBrother » Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:23 pm

Invincible_Gamera wrote:
Wed May 18, 2016 5:20 pm
Hillary will lose unless she can bring in Independents and left-leaning Democrats. And I don't think she can. I know she won't have me.
Good call..
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Re: Well That Didn't Take Long - Clinton/Trump Polls Tighten

Post by dBrother » Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:26 pm

dBrother wrote:
Wed May 18, 2016 3:08 pm
Godjira wrote:Well, almost certain, but not absolutely certain.
I'm seeing the hate felt for entrenched political party members in the US, just like trump was the democratically chosen, by the people, republican candidate and the party itself have done everything possible not to have this reality thrust upon them, the democrats have actually got away with shafting their democratically chosen candidate via the super delegate system. And have thrust an unwanted Hillary upon the people with all her baggage, and there's lots of it.
Face it, she isn't the popular choice as candidate for her party, trump is.
Where mud gets thrown at trump and he just says "yeah , what of it", the mud falls off.
There is an equal amount of mud being chucked Hillary's way and some of it's sticking, to me, if I was a working class mortgage holder, her association with Goldman Sachs (did she actually do a speech? If not what have they bought with all that money?) would be a deal breaker alone.

Give me a green card and I'd vote Sanders at the drop of a hat, but its looking like that's not going to be an option come November..
So trump gets my vote by default.

Let's Be honest, he's got more charisma about him than any republican since Nixon..

And charisma, even if it is from A blatant narcissist (aka megalomaniac- which is what he undoubtedly is) is going to trump whatever Hillary is offering.
..
.

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