POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

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47% Comment leaked
8
62%
Hurricane Sandy
1
8%
Paul Ryan Pick
0
No votes
Losing last two debates
0
No votes
His entire campaign
2
15%
Tax returns
0
No votes
Dog on Roof
0
No votes
Murdouck and Akin
1
8%
JellyBelly's fat support of him
1
8%
His mom jeans
0
No votes
Cogito
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Eye Degree
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No votes
Other
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No votes
 
Total votes: 13

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joeyramone
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POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by joeyramone » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:29 pm

What was the one thing that torpedoed him the most? VETOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by polardude1 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:31 pm

I think the final nail was the campaign commerical where the Romny team claimed Chrysler was locating production to China
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judik
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by judik » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:35 pm

It was a combination of things but the one that started it was was the 47% comment
He took almost 2 weeks to address it,and when he did, he didn't apologize.
Hell,many right wing pundits were downright approving
And then of course the Jeep comment
People simply didn't trust him to tell the truth and give a rip about them
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by incognita » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:43 pm

His constant duplicity got him. So many people have access to the internet and with that they have the ability to fact-check for themselves. The 47% comment, lies about Chrysler & AMC, and then doubling down on them, his attack on Obama within hours of the Benghazi attacks, he didn't acknowledge the military, he claimed to 'save' the SLC Olympics (he did, but only with a massive bailout from the feds).

But I think he also tried to be a 'severe conservative' for too long and the Obama campaign got to define him on their terms to the public first. I've seen it happen over & over again, but usually it's the Repubs defining the Dems.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by Redsales » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:46 pm

Romney is a moderate. I think he would have compromised with Democrats and been a pretty good president.

The problem:
The Repub Party has gone ape-shit batty, with the TeaBaggers now running the ship.

Main case in point: Rick Santorum, a man who wants to outlaw contraceptives, was leading the field at one point.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by joeyramone » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:47 pm

I voted for the 47% thing - it was something he couldn't shake - he was literally caught with his hand in the cookie jar, and as Judi noted, he didn't address it very well. It made him look like an uncaring creep, and basically painted him more like Mr Burns than any Obama ad or talking point could have.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by Logg » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:50 pm

Redsales wrote:Romney is a moderate. I think he would have compromised with Democrats and been a pretty good president.

The problem:
The Repub Party has gone ape-shit batty, with the TeaBaggers now running the ship.

Main case in point: Rick Santorum, a man who wants to outlaw contraceptives, was leading the field at one point.


Yup. The problem was Romney had to repudiate his good work in Massachusetts in order to win the Republican nomination.

Maybe he would have worked with a democratic congress if one was elected. But why cross your fingers and hope for the best when there's a perfectly decent moderate already in the White House?...at least that was my opinion.

Romney with a democratic house/senate, no problem. Romney with a Boehner house/McConnell (or whoever) Senate, back to the dark ages.

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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by judik » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:02 pm

Maybe he would have worked with a democratic congress if one was elected.

That was the hope of two moderate conservatives (David Brooks and Frum)who endorsed him
IMO it was magical thinking to believe that the man who had pandered to every fringe group would turn his back on them
And that they would let him
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by incognita » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:07 pm

What Judi said, and his record in MA demonstrates otherwise. 800 vetoes, and 707 of them were overturned. Not exactly encouraging. And I'm also glad that Romney lost because the R's in Congress shouldn't be rewarded for their obstructionism.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by polardude1 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:12 pm

Maybe he would have worked with a democratic congress if one was elected.

The party faithful would have then fliped on him for compromising
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by AnnieOakley » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:34 pm

Yeah, the 47% thang. If you're running for public office, always, always, always assume you're being recorded.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by Logg » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:40 pm

polardude1 wrote:
Maybe he would have worked with a democratic congress if one was elected.

The party faithful would have then fliped on him for compromising


But he wouldn't have to worry about that until four years later. And when was the last time a party turned on an incumbent and nominated someone else after one term?

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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by korgy » Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:30 am

i don't see it as a turning point away from Romney leading...the "turning point" in the other directionwas when Romney's popularity increased after the first debate, but that was only a bump -- that momentum stopped even before Sandy.

the election simply reverted to the norm after all that. i think anyone reviewing Silver's blog from many months ago would see that his stats remained fairly stable in favor of Obama-- without the debates, without Sandy, without 47%, etc etc.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by Vince » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:44 am

According to 538.com, at no point in the campaign was he ever ahead so its not right to talk about one turning point. his highlight was 33% chance of victory following 1st debate followed by a slow reversion to mean.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by i_have_shiny_shoes » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:48 am

There are no 'single points', but being so heavy-handed about immigration in the candidacy debates cost him hugely with the Latino/Hispanic vote.

I'm still amazed that he managed to get away without releasing his tax returns.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by polardude1 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 1:59 pm

Some are pointing the fingers at Christie

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/chri ... fault.html
Conservative commentator Dick Morris, who had predicted a Romney landslide, explained in a column that he underestimated the effect of Christie’s “fawning promotion of Obama’s presidential leadership,” which “made all the difference” in the election.

From the left, Chris Matthews on MSNBC agreed: “It really may have put this election back on track for Obama.”

The blame-game began before Election Day. Early in the week the Huffington Post reported, based on anonymous sources, that Christie turned down Romney’s request to appear at a rally Sunday night in Bucks County.

Christie denied that, saying Romney knew he couldn’t leave New Jersey during a crisis. He surmised that the “noise” was “coming from know-nothing, disgruntled Romney staffers who, you know, don’t like the fact that I said nice things about the president
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by AnnieOakley » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:21 pm

I understand the human hand is also designed to point inward.
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by birdlite » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:33 pm

Vince wrote:According to 538.com, at no point in the campaign was he ever ahead so its not right to talk about one turning point. his highlight was 33% chance of victory following 1st debate followed by a slow reversion to mean.


Yep, listened to Nate Silver last night. There never was a turning point.

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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by joeyramone » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:08 pm

birdlite wrote:
Vince wrote:According to 538.com, at no point in the campaign was he ever ahead so its not right to talk about one turning point. his highlight was 33% chance of victory following 1st debate followed by a slow reversion to mean.


Yep, listened to Nate Silver last night. There never was a turning point.



It doesn't matter that he wasn't ahead at any time, the 47% thing basically stopped any progress dead in its tracks, and made sure he was never going to be embraced by any wider group than he already played to.

Silver is great, but he embodies the worst of the baseball stat freaks who will tell you with a straight face that a guy like Derek Jeter doesn't bring anything worthy to a team due to his intangibles.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by cowtown » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:41 pm

I never thought it was close. It felt like the right wing, plutocratic media was faking a close race to keep the political ad spending pouring into their pockets while maintaining ratings
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by birdlite » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:55 pm

joeyramone wrote:Silver is great, but he embodies the worst of the baseball stat freaks who will tell you with a straight face that a guy like Derek Jeter doesn't bring anything worthy to a team due to his intangibles.


made me laugh in my coffee. You are so right. Silver is fascinating but even he said that even while there was 90% chance Obama would win, there was a 10% chance he wouldn't. And 10% is not zero. And 90% was never static.

But I love the Jeter comment.

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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by joeyramone » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:09 pm

I totally get what Silver's all about, he really should use his methods to handicap NFL games. When Joe scarborough said that in a close election, there's a 50.1% chance of the winner actually winning, I knew that he was talking out of his ass. In the NFL, it's rare that two 3-3 teams facing each other will be a pick 'em, and even with that, one is favored by a greater percentage.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by eric84 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:14 pm

Silver has been very useful in totally demolishing 'gut feel' political punditry of the sort we saw from George Will and the like. He's a threat to them which is why you saw him attacked so harshly.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by joeyramone » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:22 pm

Silver is simply to political pundit swhat billy beane is to traditional old baseball scouts.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by eric84 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:35 pm

It's similar, yes, but I would say Silver will make a greater impact on political analysis than he will in baseball. Success in baseball, even with a statistical model, is still harder to predict than it is in politics.
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by salmonid » Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:40 pm

Nate Silver might be a nerd, but he knows his stats and if the world were fair, he'd put 90% of blowhard pundits out of work.

The biggest turning point for Romney was when Lost Soul predicted him to win a blowout. The theorem "Lost Soul is wrong about virtually everything" kicked in and a Romney loss became fait accompli.

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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by judik » Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:41 pm

Football analogies were used frequently towards the end
One that Nate used was that the Rmoney campaign was like a team that was a field goal behind with 2 minutes to play.
Statistically it is possible but was it probable based on the stats?
No
It think he said in that case that 79% of the time the team that was ahead won
The theorem "Lost Soul is wrong about virtually everything" kicked in and a Romney loss became fait accompli.

In the future we should do the opposite of what he says
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by eric84 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:43 pm

The theorem "Lost Soul is wrong about virtually everything" kicked in and a Romney loss became fait accompli.


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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by judik » Thu Nov 08, 2012 5:45 pm

Andrew Sullivan even renamed one of his awards after Dick
The one where a pundit is so terribly,horribly wrong
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Re: POLE: Biggest turning point for Romney

Post by Logg » Thu Nov 08, 2012 6:22 pm

One stat I saw, not sure if it was an exit poll or not, was that 52.8% of the people blamed Bush for the bad economy of the last four years, while only about 38% blamed Obama.

As long as people still associate Bush with the bad economy, there's almost no way the Democrats should have lost, considering how the Republicans simply doubled down on the supply side rhetoric and in Romney's case issued vague platitudes about turning around the economy without providing any specifics.

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