Let's start with the easiest proof that will prove simply naive and ignorant...
We'll be out of this in 6-12 months tops.
Too bad we have to wait a year for your prediction to be proved silly.
I see absolutely NOTHING out there that suggests there is ANY reason for the economy to turn around in the near future... we haven't even gone deep into the recession yet. We haven't begun to start liquidating all those non performing mortgages - can't keep ignoring the fact that people aren't even paying their mortgages on properties they feel they can't pay off - and, until that debt is settled or written off, there can be no resolution of how bad the losses are going to be.
The very idea that we have already gone thru the worst can ONLY ocme from a spoiled American who takes for granted that growth is just a given... the Japanese never really came out of their 1980s recession... there is NO reason that our real estate based recession will be far deeper and far worse.
Again - think unemployment at 18%
Interest Rates at 10% - IF you can get a loan.
And - when the govt starts printing money because they can't collect enuff tax revenue (even with their tax increases which won't bring in anywhere near what they assuume they will get because rich people can protect their money much quicker than the govt can confiscate it) and there won't be any more borrowing... inflation is gonna come back to 70s double digit because the Govt "has to" keep churning out social security and medicare checks.
We haven't even begun to experience how deep this is gonna cut!