Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin? Or Paul-Hulka?
Ryan
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Post by Ryan » Thu Oct 23, 2008 11:53 pm

obama 296
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Argonheart_Po
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Post by Argonheart_Po » Fri Oct 24, 2008 4:35 am

McCain 274

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korgy
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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 24, 2008 7:12 pm

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
Sonora Obama 309
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333

Oct 21
tph24601 Obama 278
Collateral Knowledge Obama 294
SeanMMM Obama 538

Oct 23
Ryan Obama 296

Oct 24
Argonheart_Po McCain 274

_______

just to reiterate blueeyes's rules for his contest, you can change your bid anytime, but it's the last one that will count.

i'm posting this for my contest -- to see who was closest earliest.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by Fred Garvin » Sat Oct 25, 2008 2:15 am

Paul/Hulka FTW

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judik
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Post by judik » Sat Oct 25, 2008 4:43 pm

Chuck Todd just put VA and Co to lean Obama bringing the total to 286.If NV goes,which is likely he will be at 291
My number BTW

He can lose PA,Ohio and FLA and still win
McCain supporters need some zantac after they read this
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Polardude
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Post by Polardude » Sat Oct 25, 2008 6:10 pm

Obama wil lnot lose PA unless Philly people are kept from the polls
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Electrolyte
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Post by Electrolyte » Sat Oct 25, 2008 9:01 pm

Argonheart_Po wrote:McCain 274

Obama 400.

Let's see who is closest on the morning of Nov. 5.

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Post by Citizen Baba » Tue Oct 28, 2008 1:54 pm

Electrolyte wrote:
Argonheart_Po wrote:McCain 274

Obama 400.

Let's see who is closest on the morning of Nov. 5.


Has your love affair with Po over the sands of Iraq ended, Electro?

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Electrolyte
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Post by Electrolyte » Tue Oct 28, 2008 3:48 pm

You might think about respecting the fact that I have my own opinions and don't simply pick the liberal side on every issue ... unlike some people ...

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Post by coffeeguy » Tue Oct 28, 2008 4:34 pm

Obama 360

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korgy
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Post by korgy » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:08 pm

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
Sonora Obama 309
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333

Oct 21
tph24601 Obama 278
Collateral Knowledge Obama 294
SeanMMM Obama 538

Oct 23
Ryan Obama 296

Oct 24
Argonheart_Po McCain 274

Oct 25
Electrolyte Obama 400

Oct 28
coffeeguy Obama 360

_______

the korgy contest rules: whoever was within 4 points of the winning electoral total earliest is my winner.

blueeyes's winner, as far as i know, is whoever gets the exact total, or whoever is closest to that total, at anytime --(or earliest, in the case of a tie).

i'll announce a prize at some point as well.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Electrolyte
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Post by Electrolyte » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:17 pm

Is 400 even mathematically possible? I feel like such a lightweight on this thread.

I'm still going to beat Argon, though.

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Post by i_have_shiny_shoes » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:29 pm

Is 400 even mathematically possible?


Yes, it is, but not at this election in practice. The closest you'll get is 399 or 401.
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

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Electrolyte
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Post by Electrolyte » Tue Oct 28, 2008 5:33 pm

i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:but not at this election in practice

That's what I meant.

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Sonora
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Post by Sonora » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:07 pm

I did not notice that Shiny Shoes picked the same number I did the day before me (I looked for it, too--I was going to pick 310, but went with 309 because I did see that Felix picked it first....).

So if I change my prediction, the question is now whether I pick a number close to my original prediction (being honest since if I were running this I'd have imposed a deadline of last week) or do I pick a higher number because I now think it's going to be a lot less close than it looked earlier this month. Hmmmmm.....

Okay: Obama 340.

Electrolyte, I considered attempting to predict on a state-by-state basis, but ultimately pulled a number out of my arse. I don't know if the precise number is mathematically possible either.

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Electrolyte
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Post by Electrolyte » Tue Oct 28, 2008 10:29 pm

Sonora wrote: ultimately pulled a number out of my arse

I hope you're not claiming to have thought of that ground breaking innovation before I did.

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korgy
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Post by korgy » Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:20 am

Sonora, i also missed IHSS's number when i originally posted all the bids, because of the way it was written, which was not that clear. (i later edited the first tally).

i think your first bid should therefore be considered a tie with IHSS's bid if that's the number. not sure what BEA thinks -- it wouldn't be fair to have two bids in, of course.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by eric84 » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:43 pm

I'm just glad I can edit my posts now.....
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Post by blueeyes_austin » Wed Oct 29, 2008 2:47 pm

I'm planning on closing the contest on Monday, Noon Central Standard Time next week.

Sonora's new guess is 340.
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Sonora
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Post by Sonora » Wed Oct 29, 2008 3:21 pm

Korgy, nah, IHSS had it before me. You hadn't posted summaries yet either--I just didn't see the guess in there. He edited his post 4 times, but the last of those was still 7 hours before I posted, so even if he didn't have 309 until his final edit, he had it first. I think my new guess is going to be closer, but predicting it 8 days before the election is a lot less telling than predicting it a month before. Things have changed since October 3.

And yes, I notice no one else who guessed the same number as another poster is being this anal about it.

Electrolyte wrote:
Sonora wrote: ultimately pulled a number out of my arse

I hope you're not claiming to have thought of that ground breaking innovation before I did.


Well, strictly speaking, I pulled a number out of my ass 22 days before you did..... :D :twisted:

:wink: <----Sarah Palin impersonation.

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korgy
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Post by korgy » Wed Oct 29, 2008 5:04 pm

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
[strike]Sonora Obama 309 [/strike]
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333

Oct 21
tph24601 Obama 278
Collateral Knowledge Obama 294
SeanMMM Obama 538

Oct 23
Ryan Obama 296

Oct 24
Argonheart_Po McCain 274

Oct 25
Electrolyte Obama 400

Oct 28
coffeeguy Obama 360
Sonora Obama 340

(anyone know if there is a code here for "strike" or "strike-through"?)
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by Wellpisser » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:52 am

Obama 335

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Post by Wellpisser » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:54 am

McCain 666

Joke.

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korgy
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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 31, 2008 4:44 pm

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
[strike]Sonora Obama 309 [/strike]
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333

Oct 21
tph24601 Obama 278
Collateral Knowledge Obama 294
SeanMMM Obama 538

Oct 23
Ryan Obama 296

Oct 24
Argonheart_Po McCain 274

Oct 25
Electrolyte Obama 400

Oct 28
coffeeguy Obama 360
Sonora Obama 340

Oct 31
Wellpisser Obama 335


(anyone know if there is a code here for "strike" or "strike-through"?)

i'm going to go ahead and say i think my early bid at 348 is going to be low. Obama might be headed for a near-landslide.

not going to change it though.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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judik
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Post by judik » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:08 pm

i'm going to go ahead and say i think my early bid at 348 is going to be low. Obama might be headed for a near-landslide.

Now you've gone and done it :roll:
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

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Sonora
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Post by Sonora » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:45 pm

I doubt we'll see a near-landslide, but I do think Obama is going to win by more than the usual narrow margin.

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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:47 pm

judi, just curious -- have you and BEA been watching the fivethirtyeight.com electoral prediction averages they have been posting over the past month? both of you were promoting the merits of this site.
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judik
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Post by judik » Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:49 pm

korgy- I have
still feel uneasy though
Just not used to winning I guess :?
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

Winston Churchill

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korgy
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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 31, 2008 6:01 pm

judik wrote:korgy- I have
still feel uneasy though
Just not used to winning I guess :?


their predictions have ranged something like between 344 and 352 over the past month, if i remember correctly.

if you look at the bids above, oddly enough i am the only one who has been claiming this territory around 348 -- for 4 weeks now. not sure why... and i'm supposed to be one of the least objective, most partisan hacks here regarding this election.

we'll have to see what the outcome is, of course--i already said i wouldn't be surprised if it was higher.

does seem odd that such a partisan hack like myself -- and no one else -- would be most aligned with the scientific forum that seems to be most recommended...even if we're both wrong.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by i_have_shiny_shoes » Fri Oct 31, 2008 6:54 pm

Electrolyte going for 400 is 'interesting'. There's a slim possibility that if Obama has the election all his way - which I sincerely doubt, I still think the margin of victory will be tight in the EC and I'm sticking with 309 - it could be 406 - 132 at close of play on Wednesday.
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 31, 2008 7:36 pm

yeah, i think anywhere between early 300s and early 400s is possible - depending upon which way the wind blows the day before the election.
(maybe the Monday night Saturday Night Live special will change history...!)

regarding my earlier post -- i realize the reason the 538.com statistical average doesn't match the leading possible electoral outcomes is, of course, because of the limited electoral possibilities based on state wins, and the order in which those wins are likely to occur. (today, 538.com's likely electoral totals are 375, 364, 338, 378, and 353). guesses in the 340s to 350 range would be based on the possibility of unconventional sequence of state "wins" for Obama. (my guess was based on an unconventional sequence of states "turning" for Obama).
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Post by Electrolyte » Fri Oct 31, 2008 7:54 pm

i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:Electrolyte going for 400 is 'interesting'. There's a slim possibility that if Obama has the election all his way - which I sincerely doubt, I still think the margin of victory will be tight in the EC and I'm sticking with 309 - it could be 406 - 132 at close of play on Wednesday.

I picked 400 because:

1 - I didn't want to make a pick in the crowd, and
2 - I wanted to be an outlier and still beat Argon.

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Post by Northof49 » Sat Nov 01, 2008 8:45 pm

Obama - 311

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Post by korgy » Sun Nov 02, 2008 8:36 pm

interesting - the fivethirtyeight electoral estimate has dropped significantly for the first time in weeks, if i remember correctly -- statistical average is now 332.9, and likely most scenarios number is 311, followed by 353 then 326.

has anyone else noticed this? am i correct in that it hasn't been this low in weeks?
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Post by Byrdfelt » Sun Nov 02, 2008 8:51 pm

I should throw my hat in the ring.

Obama 349

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judik
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Post by judik » Sun Nov 02, 2008 8:56 pm

Right now the polls are showing 264 for Obama with just the strong states
toss in a leaner or two and its a done deal
Obama doesn't need Fla or ohio
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Post by i_have_shiny_shoes » Sun Nov 02, 2008 9:44 pm

korgy wrote:interesting - the fivethirtyeight electoral estimate has dropped significantly for the first time in weeks, if i remember correctly -- statistical average is now 332.9, and likely most scenarios number is 311, followed by 353 then 326.

has anyone else noticed this? am i correct in that it hasn't been this low in weeks?


It was 320-ish in the second week of October, if I remember rightly.
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

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Post by korgy » Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:05 am

Byrdfelt wrote:I should throw my hat in the ring.

Obama 349


you stole my thunder (!) :wink:

you're the first one to come close to mine.

this is why i initiated the "within-4-points earliest" contest -- now, there is more chance of 349 than 348 , for one example

IHSS wrote:It was 320-ish in the second week of October, if I remember rightly.


thanks, i missed that..
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Post by korgy » Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:10 am

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
[strike]Sonora Obama 309 [/strike]
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333

Oct 21
tph24601 Obama 278
Collateral Knowledge Obama 294
SeanMMM Obama 538

Oct 23
Ryan Obama 296

Oct 24
Argonheart_Po McCain 274

Oct 25
Electrolyte Obama 400

Oct 28
coffeeguy Obama 360
Sonora Obama 340

Oct 31
Wellpisser Obama 335

Nov 1
Northof49 Obama 311

Nov 2
Byrdfelt Obama 349
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Post by Doc » Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:29 am

I spoke to a Republican friend who lives in Florida today. His office has seven Republicans in it, and six of them are voting for Obama. I will be fascinated to see how this election plays out.
As Aldous Huxley pointed out, "The propagandist's purpose is to make one set of people forget that certain other sets of people are human."

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Post by foolsprogress » Mon Nov 03, 2008 5:23 am

Many if not most of our righties are still conspicuously absent here.

Scott, paul, PE... wherefore art thou?
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Post by i_have_shiny_shoes » Mon Nov 03, 2008 12:27 pm

Korgy, in case you were panicking, it's now back up to 96.3% win percentage at 538, EV at 340.2 with likely EV totals at 311, 338, 353, 364 and 291. As Nate explains:

Barack Obama's position has become somewhat stronger since our update this afternoon. We now have him with a 5.8 point lead in the national popular vote, and winning the election 96.3 percent of the time. Earlier today, those figures were 5.4 and 93.7, respectively.

I continue to find a hair's worth of tightening on balance in the state-by-state polls -- even as Obama's position in the national trackers seems to be roughly as strong as it has ever been. This, ironically, is the exact reverse of the position we saw earlier in the week, when the national polls seemed to be tightening even as the state polls weren't.

However, Obama's win percentage has ticked upward again for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he's gotten some relatively good numbers out of Pennsylvania since our last update, with PPP and Zogby giving him leads of 8 and 14 points, respectively, and Rasmussen showing his lead expanding to 6 points after having been at 4 before. (The Zogby poll is probably an outlier, but may serve to balance out outliers like Strategic Vision on the other side).

Secondly, McCain's clock has simply run out. While there is arguable evidence of a small tightening, there is no evidence of a dramatic tightening of the sort he would need to make Tuesday night interesting.

Related to this is the fact that there are now very, very few true undecideds left in this race. After accounting for a third-party vote, which looks as though it will come in at an aggregate of 2 percent or so (after doing some work on this tonight, I concluded that I had been slightly underestimating the third-party vote before), I am showing only about 2.7 percent of the electorate left to allocate between the two major-party candidates. Even if John McCain were to win 70 perecnt of the remaining undecideds (which I don't think is likely), that would only be worth a net of about a point for him. Frankly, McCain's winning scenarios mainly involve the polls having been wrong in the first place -- because of a Bradley Effect or something else. It is unlikely that the polls will "tighten" substantially further -- especially when Obama already has over 50 percent of the vote.

It's very late, obviously, so we won't get into too much more detail, but a couple of quick notes.

--> Don't worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA's polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they've never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

--> A couple of the national polls have now started to predict how undecided voters will behave and allocate them between the two major-party candidates. I use the versions of these surveys before any such allocations are made, as from my point of view it isn't the pollster's job to get into the prediction business (our model has its own ideas about how to handle undecideds).

Image
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Post by korgy » Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:09 pm

thanks IHSS

i promised an award also, so mine is -- that is, my award for whoever came within 4 points of the electoral total first:

1) you get to tell me how often i am allowed to post in the month of November, beginning after November 5th, starting at zero times

or

2) you get to have me argue your position on a thread of my choosing (could be a curse!)

or

3) you get to post whatever on my sigline during November, provided it is accurate if it is a quote, and provided it is attributed to you or whoever said it. (simliar to BEA's award).
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Post by AnnieOakley » Mon Nov 03, 2008 2:30 pm

foolsprogress wrote:Many if not most of our righties are still conspicuously absent here.


The wacked-out ones are currently busy starting threads highlighting the first week of the Obama presidency, where all their guns, two-stroke engines, bibles, money and wimminfolk are confiscated.
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

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Post by Lost Soul » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:04 pm

AnnieOakley wrote:
foolsprogress wrote:Many if not most of our righties are still conspicuously absent here.


The wacked-out ones are currently busy starting threads highlighting the first week of the Obama presidency, where all their guns, two-stroke engines, bibles, money and wimminfolk are confiscated.

Please let me keep my two-strokes.
IMPRISON BUSH!

INDICT HILLARY!

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Post by AnnieOakley » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:15 pm

You're in Alaska? They'll get yours first.
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

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Post by Lost Soul » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:22 pm

The Alaska chainsaw massacre.
IMPRISON BUSH!

INDICT HILLARY!

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Post by blueeyes_austin » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:26 pm

Tick, tock.

COME ON WUSSIES AND MAKE A GUESS!
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Post by AnnieOakley » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:27 pm

You won't have a chainsaw, either. They'll take that, too.
You wanna be a big, tough outdoorsman? Chop and split firewood with axe and maul, and stalk your dinner on foot and kill it with your bare hands.
Go take a ride on your ATV. It's your last one.
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

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Post by Sonora » Mon Nov 03, 2008 3:55 pm

judik wrote:Right now the polls are showing 264 for Obama with just the strong states
toss in a leaner or two and its a done deal
Obama doesn't need Fla or ohio


The St Louis Post-Dispatch (whichever poll it was based on --- I'm not sure) showed 257 EV in states that are strongly for Obama plus 52 in states leaning towards Obama and 70 in too close to call states. They had Ohio as leaning towards Obama.

Mr S and I will go out to celebrate Tuesday night even before all the returns are in. No matter who wins the election (and barring a collossal fuck-up by the Dems in the next 36 hours---which, historically speaking, is not out of the realm of possibility---it looks like it will be Obama), two things are certain: (1) we won't have to hear any more campaign ads for the next 18 to 20 months or so, and (2) we are going to have a better president in January than we have now. And, well, any excuse to go out for a nice dinner will do. :D :D :D (Should I have posted a sappy-newlywed-mush alert before this post?)

[Edited to fix typo.]

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