Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election
- Sonora
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It's going to be a while for Missouri. Robin Carnahan (Missouri secretary of state) said on the radio this morning that they have over 7,000 provisional ballots, which is more than the number of votes separating McCain and Obama. Those won't all end up being valid, but they will go through and make sure that any that are registered are counted. She didn't say anything about how close it has to be to trigger an automatic re-count. It will probably be McCain, but it may be a while before that is official.
What about Nebraska? I know 4 of the 5 EV are McCain's but last I saw, the EV for the Omaha district was too close to be officially called (though, like Missouri, McCain was leading).
What about Nebraska? I know 4 of the 5 EV are McCain's but last I saw, the EV for the Omaha district was too close to be officially called (though, like Missouri, McCain was leading).
- eric84
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- i_have_shiny_shoes
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- korgy
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korgy wrote:i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:Latest from the Omaha World-Herald is that Obama has picked up one electoral vote. So it goes to 365, in all probability.
cool! further cracking of that ugly red monolith!
Yup. The Omaha World-Herald has called it.
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.
- korgy
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Vince wrote:So who is the best and worst at predicting. I predicting Pauldeba and Argon to be bad but perhaps not the worst. Maybe argon is 3rd worst?
Vince there are 4 or 5 posters on this board who swore that McCain would easily defeat Obama. i don't see any need to highlight them right now, unless of course they can't seem to stop putting their feet in their mouths (scroll down):
http://www.politicalstew.com/forum/view ... hp?t=65905
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"
- Electrolyte
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- AnnieOakley
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- Sonora
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Here is the latest from Missouri that I've heard: there were some electronic ballots from St Louis County that had not registered. After counting those, McCain's lead in Missouri shrank from 5859 to 4900-something. There are STILL 7000 provisional ballots they have not even begun to deal with. Typically, about half of those end up counting, so it is almost certain for Missouri to go for McCain, albeit with a slightly narrower lead than he now has. I know that fivethirtyeight called Missouri for McCain over the weekend, but it is going to be at least several more days before Robin Carnahan certifies the results. I'm not sure about whether any news organizations have called Missouri or not. It's getting little coverage at this point locally.
- Sonora
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According to the local NPR station, McCain's lead in Missouri is now at approximately 4300, and all Missouri counties have certified their votes except St Louis City, St Louis County, and Jackson County. I'm not sure where Jackson County is, but St Louis City and County are both pretty heavily democratic. However, obviously most of their votes have already been counted, and it doesn't seem possible that the result will change. Missouri's votes should be certified in the next few days if you want to wait for it to be officially official before declaring a winner to your contests.
- blueeyes_austin
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- korgy
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yep, AP has called it for McCain.
eric, you can PM me with your choice of prize for my contest.
as for options #1 and #3, i'll change it to a period of 3 weeks from today's date.
eric, you can PM me with your choice of prize for my contest.
my award for whoever came within 4 points of the electoral total first:
1) you get to tell me how often i am allowed to post in the month of November, beginning after November 5th, starting at zero times
or
2) you get to have me argue your position on a thread of my choosing (could be a curse!)
or
3) you get to post whatever on my sigline during November, provided it is accurate if it is a quote, and provided it is attributed to you or whoever said it. (simliar to BEA's award).
as for options #1 and #3, i'll change it to a period of 3 weeks from today's date.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"
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Re: Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election
Was there an election? Damn I missed it.
I am Poppy, my names is Mahmi. I am a Palestinian living in Israel. We are part of the true Israeli peace camp. My family stayed in 1948 - we live long and prosper.
- Electrolyte
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Re: Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election
It was fun to watch.
Remember that scene in 2001 where the guy goes out to repair the antenna on the spaceship and HAL, the evil computer run amok, cuts his air line and flings him into outer space? That's what happened to the Republicans.
Remember that scene in 2001 where the guy goes out to repair the antenna on the spaceship and HAL, the evil computer run amok, cuts his air line and flings him into outer space? That's what happened to the Republicans.
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Re: Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election
Electrolyte wrote:It was fun to watch.
Remember that scene in 2001 where the guy goes out to repair the antenna on the spaceship and HAL, the evil computer run amok, cuts his air line and flings him into outer space? That's what happened to the Republicans.
Obama is an evil computer run amok? You aren't one of these weird Von Daniken types are you?
I am Poppy, my names is Mahmi. I am a Palestinian living in Israel. We are part of the true Israeli peace camp. My family stayed in 1948 - we live long and prosper.
- Electrolyte
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Re: Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election
Just thought I'd revive this one and say "hah!"
Can't wait for the rerun next year.
Can't wait for the rerun next year.