Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

eric84 · Post by **eric84** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:12 pm

Ok, stop the contest! I win and RichD gets a year's supply of Rice-a-Roni the San Francisco treat.

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:17 pm

still waiting for Missouri, eric -- hang in there

Sonora · Post by **Sonora** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 7:58 pm

It's going to be a while for Missouri. Robin Carnahan (Missouri secretary of state) said on the radio this morning that they have over 7,000 provisional ballots, which is more than the number of votes separating McCain and Obama. Those won't all end up being valid, but they will go through and make sure that any that are registered are counted. She didn't say anything about how close it has to be to trigger an automatic re-count. It will probably be McCain, but it may be a while before that is official.

What about Nebraska? I know 4 of the 5 EV are McCain's but last I saw, the EV for the Omaha district was too close to be officially called (though, like Missouri, McCain was leading).

eric84 · Post by **eric84** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:01 pm

I'll be using the services of lawyers from the 2000 Florida recount to shut the voting count process down to ensure my victory. Small price to pay for eternal glory.

i_have_shiny_shoes · Post by **i_have_shiny_shoes** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:48 pm

Latest from the Omaha World-Herald is that Obama has picked up one electoral vote. So it goes to 365, in all probability.

Sonora · Post by **Sonora** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:57 pm

I think they are still counting Omaha, but it looks likely to go for Obama.

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 11:05 pm

i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:Latest from the Omaha World-Herald is that Obama has picked up one electoral vote. So it goes to 365, in all probability.

cool! further cracking of that ugly red monolith!

i_have_shiny_shoes · Post by **i_have_shiny_shoes** » Fri Nov 07, 2008 11:48 pm

korgy wrote:
i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:Latest from the Omaha World-Herald is that Obama has picked up one electoral vote. So it goes to 365, in all probability.

cool! further cracking of that ugly red monolith!

Yup. The Omaha World-Herald has called it.

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 6:28 pm

have they called Missouri yet?

Vince · Post by **Vince** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 7:05 pm

So who is the best and worst at predicting. I predicting Pauldeba and Argon to be bad but perhaps not the worst. Maybe argon is 3rd worst?

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Sat Nov 08, 2008 8:07 pm

Vince wrote:So who is the best and worst at predicting. I predicting Pauldeba and Argon to be bad but perhaps not the worst. Maybe argon is 3rd worst?

Vince there are 4 or 5 posters on this board who swore that McCain would easily defeat Obama. i don't see any need to highlight them right now, unless of course they can't seem to stop putting their feet in their mouths (scroll down):

http://www.politicalstew.com/forum/view ... hp?t=65905

Cisco · Post by **Cisco** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 4:59 am

I never got around to making my prediction on this thread, but in all fairness to those who stuck their necks out and did, in the days just prior to the election I would have predicted McCain 291.

Electrolyte · Post by **Electrolyte** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 2:23 pm

McCain 291 just before the election?

Why not go all the way? How about Cisco 300?

Cisco · Post by **Cisco** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 4:58 pm

Electrolyte wrote:McCain 291 just before the election?

Couldn't help it.

I'm just an eternal optimist.

Maybe getting hit by that train on November 4th will shake me out of it.

AnnieOakley · Post by **AnnieOakley** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 5:10 pm

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Sun Nov 09, 2008 5:26 pm

nice shot, Annie.

still waiting for Missouri to be called to ensure eric84's victory here.

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Wed Nov 12, 2008 4:01 pm

does anyone know if any of the major news networks have called Missouri yet for McCain? last i heard, his lead was down to 4000 and change -- but there still may be some outstanding absentee ballots.

anyone know?

Sonora · Post by **Sonora** » Wed Nov 12, 2008 5:26 pm

Here is the latest from Missouri that I've heard: there were some electronic ballots from St Louis County that had not registered. After counting those, McCain's lead in Missouri shrank from 5859 to 4900-something. There are STILL 7000 provisional ballots they have not even begun to deal with. Typically, about half of those end up counting, so it is almost certain for Missouri to go for McCain, albeit with a slightly narrower lead than he now has. I know that fivethirtyeight called Missouri for McCain over the weekend, but it is going to be at least several more days before Robin Carnahan certifies the results. I'm not sure about whether any news organizations have called Missouri or not. It's getting little coverage at this point locally.

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Fri Nov 14, 2008 4:49 pm

mutha is fixing

Sonora · Post by **Sonora** » Wed Nov 19, 2008 3:09 pm

According to the local NPR station, McCain's lead in Missouri is now at approximately 4300, and all Missouri counties have certified their votes except St Louis City, St Louis County, and Jackson County. I'm not sure where Jackson County is, but St Louis City and County are both pretty heavily democratic. However, obviously most of their votes have already been counted, and it doesn't seem possible that the result will change. Missouri's votes should be certified in the next few days if you want to wait for it to be officially official before declaring a winner to your contests.

blueeyes_austin · Post by **blueeyes_austin** » Wed Nov 19, 2008 3:52 pm

Jackson County is Kansas City and also very heavily black and Democratic.

eric84 · Post by **eric84** » Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:03 pm

mutha is fixing

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:06 pm

I win!

Plagiarist.

eric84 · Post by **eric84** » Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:07 pm

You were this close, LS.

Lost Soul · Post by **Lost Soul** » Wed Nov 19, 2008 10:10 pm

Yup.

Just one economic catastrophe away from victory.

korgy · Post by **korgy** » Thu Nov 20, 2008 2:47 am

yep, AP has called it for McCain.

eric, you can PM me with your choice of prize for my contest.

my award for whoever came within 4 points of the electoral total first:

1) you get to tell me how often i am allowed to post in the month of November, beginning after November 5th, starting at zero times

or

2) you get to have me argue your position on a thread of my choosing (could be a curse!)

or

3) you get to post whatever on my sigline during November, provided it is accurate if it is a quote, and provided it is attributed to you or whoever said it. (simliar to BEA's award).

as for options #1 and #3, i'll change it to a period of 3 weeks from today's date.

tph24601 · Post by **tph24601** » Fri Nov 21, 2008 3:20 pm

eric84 wrote:Both men spent considerable resources trying to win Missouri....

Obama achieved his strategic objective even if he ended up losing Missouri

Poppy · Post by **Poppy** » Tue Sep 08, 2009 9:09 pm

Was there an election? Damn I missed it.

Electrolyte · Post by **Electrolyte** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 1:59 pm

It was fun to watch.

Remember that scene in 2001 where the guy goes out to repair the antenna on the spaceship and HAL, the evil computer run amok, cuts his air line and flings him into outer space? That's what happened to the Republicans.

Poppy · Post by **Poppy** » Wed Sep 09, 2009 4:16 pm

Electrolyte wrote:It was fun to watch.

Remember that scene in 2001 where the guy goes out to repair the antenna on the spaceship and HAL, the evil computer run amok, cuts his air line and flings him into outer space? That's what happened to the Republicans.

Obama is an evil computer run amok? You aren't one of these weird Von Daniken types are you?

Electrolyte · Post by **Electrolyte** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 1:31 am

Just thought I'd revive this one and say "hah!"

Can't wait for the rerun next year.

politicalstew.com

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