Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin? Or Paul-Hulka?
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Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Post by blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:22 pm

The Rules:
1) Choose your winner and predicted EVs.
2) Closest guess gets my sig for a whole week and eternal glory as a prognosticator
3) You can edit your choices after your initial post, however the edited date will count in the case of ties.

Edit: Mods, please make as a sticky.
Last edited by blueeyes_austin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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blueeyes_austin
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Post by blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:23 pm

My guess:

Obama, 338 EV
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Post by i_have_shiny_shoes » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:26 pm

Obama, 338 EV


I'll post mine in a little while, but which states are you thinking for it to be that size of victory?

ETA - Obama. CA, OR, WA, NM, CO, MN, IA, IL, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, FL, HI. If my calculations are correct, that's 309. Thanks S8
Last edited by i_have_shiny_shoes on Fri Oct 03, 2008 9:21 am, edited 4 times in total.
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

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Post by blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:30 pm

i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:
Obama, 338 EV


I'll post mine in a little while, but which states are you thinking for it to be that size of victory?


I think Obama will clear out the west (NV/NM/CO), IA, OH, VA, and FL and not lose a single Kerry state.

At this point I should say that I think this is an optimistic outcome for McCain. It could be far worse.
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Post by AntiEverything » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:33 pm

Obama

313EV
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Post by Felix » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:34 pm

Osama 310.
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Post by incognita » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:35 pm

Op stuck.
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Post by AnnieOakley » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:46 pm

Obama 303
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Post by foolsprogress » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:57 pm

Obama 283 EV
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Post by Vince » Thu Oct 02, 2008 7:51 pm

Obama: 336
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Post by section8 » Thu Oct 02, 2008 7:54 pm

I think it'll be close, maybe a bit of a wider spread than Bush-Kerry.

IHSS, it looks like you forgot Hawaii's EVs.

EV=307
Last edited by section8 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Sonora » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:15 pm

Obama by a narrow margin. You want me to edit this post to add an EV number or add a new reply, Blueeyes?

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Post by blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:17 pm

Sonora wrote:Obama by a narrow margin. You want me to edit this post to add an EV number or add a new reply, Blueeyes?


If you want a shot at my sig line and immortal glory, yes.
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Post by AnnieOakley » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:38 pm

Screw the glory--gimmee dat sigline.
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Post by joeyramone » Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:54 pm

Obama 320.
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Post by Godjira » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:27 am

Obama, 300
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Post by DeSelby » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:42 am

I am going to go with a rout: 375 Obama.

Obama wins CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

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Post by avalon_ » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:48 am

Obama: 330 ev

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Post by AussieBob » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:54 am

Osama (the evil back dude whose middle name sounds like osama - 336. Go Osama, er Obama I mean for those easily confused - paul?)
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Post by tph24601 » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:55 am

isn't it a bit early for prediction with still a whole month to go?

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Post by judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 3:40 pm

Being someone who has voted for the losing team most of her life I have to agree with tph
Sorry BEA but your sigline isn't enough of a prize for me to go out on a limb
Show me the money!
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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:03 pm

Obama 348
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Post by Sonora » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:12 pm

blueeyes_austin wrote:
Sonora wrote:Obama by a narrow margin. You want me to edit this post to add an EV number or add a new reply, Blueeyes?


If you want a shot at my sig line and immortal glory, yes.


I meant that as an either/or question.

Okay, Obama with 309.

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Post by blueeyes_austin » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:13 pm

judik wrote:Being someone who has voted for the losing team most of her life I have to agree with tph
Sorry BEA but your sigline isn't enough of a prize for me to go out on a limb
Show me the money!


Bwack, bwack, bwack, CHICKEN!
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Post by judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:15 pm

I never misunderestimate the ability of dems to shoot themselves in the foot!
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Post by judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:43 pm

OK 291

Can you change your sig line to something more interesting?

edited to add Obama in 291
Last edited by judik on Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by AnnieOakley » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:45 pm

I think the winner (me, in this case...) gets to choose BEA's sig for a week.
Think "Your message, his billboard".
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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:46 pm

judik wrote:I never misunderestimate the ability of dems to shoot themselves in the foot!


oh, c'mon, this is just a sillly little game - it's not like saying "Obama is toast. Only a bunch of looney lefties don't know it yet."

so far, everyone on this thread thinks Obama will win -- we're just throwing in our chips for fun!
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by Electrolyte » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:20 pm

blueeyes_austin wrote:My guess:

Obama, 338 EV

Same as Intrade.com

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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:25 pm

judik wrote:OK 291

Can you change your sig line to something more interesting?


judi, if i understand correctly, you get to post whatever you want in his sigline area...

correct?
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:31 pm

Duh
Need.More.coffee
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Post by salmonid » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:34 pm

When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.

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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:01 pm

salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


yeah, but someone else might beat you to it.

QUESTION for BEA: what amount is considered winning "handily" against McCain? 300? 310?
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:02 pm

judik wrote:Duh
Need.More.coffee


i didn't get it at first also. wasn't that clear.
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Post by Sonora » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:23 pm

salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


:lol:

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Post by blueeyes_austin » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:43 pm

korgy wrote:
salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


yeah, but someone else might beat you to it.

QUESTION for BEA: what amount is considered winning "handily" against McCain? 300? 310?


I'd argue that winning handily would be a scenario where flipping a major state doesn't change the outcome. E.g., Obama wins with Ohio or without Ohio.
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Post by judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:54 pm

My 291 is based on not winning Ohio
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Post by pezworld » Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:43 pm

Am I reading this correctly?

So is I post something like McCain, 280, I win no matter what he gets if he wins?

I mean, I'm still not over Bush's re-election, and I'm a raging pessimist.

Put me down for that. I'm sure I'll change it.
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Post by blueeyes_austin » Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:48 pm

pezworld wrote:Am I reading this correctly?

So is I post something like McCain, 280, I win no matter what he gets if he wins?

I mean, I'm still not over Bush's re-election, and I'm a raging pessimist.

Put me down for that. I'm sure I'll change it.


Ah, someone who learned her lesson on The Price is Right!
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Post by pezworld » Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:59 pm

Ya never know. I could just forget to change my vote and nobody else would weigh in... then on election day, Obama's found to have fathered Ann Coulter's secret love child, and this place will go nuts, while I accidentally un-sticky the thread. I'll be depressed as hell, but at least I'll get your sigline! :D
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Post by muthafunky » Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:20 pm

Ah, someone who learned her lesson on The Price is Right!


McCain, 1 EV

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Post by pezworld » Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:26 pm

Nice try, mutha. Not a valid choice though. You pick the winner and how many votes he gets. Has to be above the threshhold.
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Post by Sonora » Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:41 pm

korgy wrote:
salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


yeah, but someone else might beat you to it.


DeSelby already did.

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Post by Cisco » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:09 am

Deadline?

A month to go and this is still way too difficult to call.

Obama surged when the economic crisis took over the news and people wrongly, but naturally, associated it with the current administration. Palin fumbled her initial interviews and put doubts in peoples' minds about the strength of the Republican ticket.

But now we have a bail out package approved and ready to implement. The economy should stabilize and everyone's fears should be calmed. In a week or two, things may look quite different on the economic front.

Palin seems a viable and competent and personable VP candidate again thereby strengthening the McCain/Palin ticket.

And then there's the Bradley Effect. Will there actually be one, or have we moved beyond it?

Too much time and too many variables.

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Post by justinian » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:14 am

Obama, 666.
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Post by Cisco » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:15 am

justinian wrote:Obama, 666.



:lol: :lol: :lol:

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Post by Vince » Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:03 am

Cisco wrote:Palin seems a viable and competent and personable VP candidate again thereby strengthening the McCain/Palin ticket.


Good one! keep them coming.
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Post by korgy » Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:20 pm

Cisco wrote:Too much time and too many variables.


according BEA's rules, you're welcome to change your number at any time, but only the last one counts.

c'mon, let us know what you're REALLY thinking...(despite all the spin)
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Post by AnnieOakley » Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:43 pm

eYe degree. Get in the game, Cisco.
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Post by Cisco » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:20 pm

AnnieOakley wrote:eYe degree. Get in the game, Cisco.


I will, but not quite yet.

Obama definitely has the edge right now, but in politics a month can be an eternity.

Too much potential volatility to waste time doing the math today.

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