Sayonara Tayyipistan

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Lost Soul
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Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:21 am

It had to happen once the Turks chose a psychotic Sunni as their leader 15 years ago. Very sad.

But the break I've been predicting for a decade is now on. Thanks Tayyip.

Ostensibly it is about an imprisoned priest, but it is really about much more than that.

In any event, the lira has crashed and the peasants are fearful. Allahu Akbar!, and adios Turkey.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... gs.OJjK0HA
(Bloomberg) -- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of backing down in a standoff with the U.S. that rattled markets. As investors worry about Turkey sliding toward a full-blown financial crisis, the big question now is how far the pain may spread.

“I call out to those in the United States. It is a shame. You are trading a strategic NATO ally for a pastor,” Erdogan said Saturday during a rally in the Black Sea port of Ordu, referring to the U.S. decision to sanction Turkey for its imprisonment of an American priest. “You cannot tame our people with threats.”

While the trigger for the stunning debacle was new U.S. sanctions on Turkey, many investors say the $900 billion economy was already headed toward a cliff. Years of a growth-at-all-costs policy bias have left its companies saddled with hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign debt, runaway inflation and one of the world’s largest current-account deficits.

The knock-on was instant. With the turmoil in Turkey fueling contagion fears, investors shunned riskier assets and sought safety in developed nations’ bonds. Treasuries and bunds rallied. South Africa’s rand, the Argentine peso and global stocks fell. The euro sank as much as 1.2 percent to the weakest in a year against the U.S. dollar amid concern about European exposure to Turkish banks.

Interest rates are a “tool of exploitation,” Erdogan said in a second speech on Saturday in Rize. “We are aware that the issue is not the dollar, euro, gold ... These are the bullets, cannon balls, missiles of the war started against us.”

Investors worry that Erdogan is standing in the way of interest-rate hikes needed to stabilize the currency and some are now saying that only extreme measures could bring Turkey back from the abyss. Previously taboo topics like an international bailout or the imposition of capital controls are now being discussed in Turkish and international financial circles.

There were signs of alarm among Turkish citizens. Visits to three different bank branches in Istanbul on Friday indicated that requests for foreign-currency withdrawals had increased. It’s not unusual for branches not to have enough foreign exchange on hand for large withdrawals, and tellers at the branches said they were awaiting cash to be delivered from headquarters to meet demand.

If they were intended to calm markets, speeches on Friday by President Erdogan and another by his son-in-law, the newly appointed economic czar, had the opposite effect. Erdogan was defiant about resisting what he calls a financial attack and requested that citizens exchange their dollars and euros for liras instead. Berat Albayrak, the minister, gave a presentation largely devoid of figures or specifics.

“Those who assume they can bring us to our knees through economic manipulations don’t know our nation at all,” Erdogan said in Gumushane near the Black Sea, where he was breaking ground for a new roadway. He said Turkey could achieve record economic growth in 2018, “despite all the attacks staged against our country through foreign exchange rates."

In the wake of the U.S. doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum on Friday, Erdogan wrote a New York Times op-ed cataloging his grievances and threatening to walk away from their decades-old alliance. "Failure to reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect will require us to start looking for new friends and allies," he wrote.

Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan’s spokesman, tweeted on Saturday that the U.S. is “facing the risk of completely losing Turkey."

The financial turmoil is showing signs of spilling over into the rest of the economy. Turkey’s private companies have borrowed heavily in foreign currencies and now sit on a pile of debt equivalent to about 40 percent of yearly economic output. Over the past year, several of the nation’s largest and most respected conglomerates have requested restructurings of billions of dollars in foreign debt, and more are sure to follow.

“Seems like a complete crash, so they need to act now,” said Morten Lund, a strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “The lira will keep falling if they don’t hike rates.”

An aggressive rate hike by the central bank, on the order of 1,000 basis points, would be a “good start,” according to Paul Greer, a money manager at Fidelity International in London.

On the U.S. side, Trump tweeted his analysis of the situation after new tariffs on steel and aluminum were announced: "Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!"

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by andybox » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:06 am

“While the trigger for the stunning debacle was new U.S. sanctions on Turkey, many investors say the $900 billion economy was already headed toward a cliff. Years of a growth-at-all-costs policy bias have left its companies saddled with hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign debt, runaway inflation and one of the world’s largest current-account deficits.”

That sounds strangely familiar.
Hands have been clenched in a fist too long

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:40 am

In the good old days the CIA would print up a few billion counterfeit notes of the currency of the country they were overthrowing, and then flood it.

I guess that is no longer needed, thanks to the Greens. Save the trees and all that.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by polardude1 » Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:44 am

2 vile leaders butting heads
DCComic "3000 dead Americans is slightly less than fuck all",

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:14 am

polardude1 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:44 am
2 vile leaders butting heads
Tayyip and Netanyahu?

Yes, we know about your loathing of the Gaza flotilla.

I side with Bibi on that one.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by korgy » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:46 am

polardude1 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:44 am
2 vile leaders butting heads
that
"Iranians apparently disagree with korgy"

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:55 am

korgy wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:46 am
polardude1 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:44 am
2 vile leaders butting heads
that
It's more than that. It's much bigger and older than Trump. It goes back to when Tayyip was first elected, under Fetal Alcohol Bush.

The straw that broke the camel's back was probably Tayyip's (too quick) vow that he wouldn't support sanctions on Iran. The priest is stuck in the middle.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by misanthrope » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:57 pm

andybox wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:06 am
“While the trigger for the stunning debacle was new U.S. sanctions on Turkey, many investors say the $900 billion economy was already headed toward a cliff. Years of a growth-at-all-costs policy bias have left its companies saddled with hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign debt, runaway inflation and one of the world’s largest current-account deficits.”

That sounds strangely familiar.
Sounds like Australia.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by misanthrope » Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:59 pm

polardude1 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:44 am
2 vile leaders butting heads
This is pretty much it. Trump didn't cause the lira crisis, but he stupidly twisted the knife, giving Erdogan the chance to deflect this as war on Turkey, rather than the reckoning of a runaway economy.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by coffeeguy » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:10 am

Another authoritarian right wing freak blows his country up, like your hero in the White House is also going to do, Loosy.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Wellpisser » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:18 am

Lost Soul wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:21 am
It had to happen once the Turks chose a psychotic Sunni as their leader 15 years ago. Very sad.

But the break I've been predicting for a decade is now on. Thanks Tayyip.

Ostensibly it is about an imprisoned priest, but it is really about much more than that.

In any event, the lira has crashed and the peasants are fearful. Allahu Akbar!, and adios Turkey.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics ... gs.OJjK0HA
(Bloomberg) -- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is showing no signs of backing down in a standoff with the U.S. that rattled markets. As investors worry about Turkey sliding toward a full-blown financial crisis, the big question now is how far the pain may spread.

“I call out to those in the United States. It is a shame. You are trading a strategic NATO ally for a pastor,” Erdogan said Saturday during a rally in the Black Sea port of Ordu, referring to the U.S. decision to sanction Turkey for its imprisonment of an American priest. “You cannot tame our people with threats.”

While the trigger for the stunning debacle was new U.S. sanctions on Turkey, many investors say the $900 billion economy was already headed toward a cliff. Years of a growth-at-all-costs policy bias have left its companies saddled with hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign debt, runaway inflation and one of the world’s largest current-account deficits.

The knock-on was instant. With the turmoil in Turkey fueling contagion fears, investors shunned riskier assets and sought safety in developed nations’ bonds. Treasuries and bunds rallied. South Africa’s rand, the Argentine peso and global stocks fell. The euro sank as much as 1.2 percent to the weakest in a year against the U.S. dollar amid concern about European exposure to Turkish banks.

Interest rates are a “tool of exploitation,” Erdogan said in a second speech on Saturday in Rize. “We are aware that the issue is not the dollar, euro, gold ... These are the bullets, cannon balls, missiles of the war started against us.”

Investors worry that Erdogan is standing in the way of interest-rate hikes needed to stabilize the currency and some are now saying that only extreme measures could bring Turkey back from the abyss. Previously taboo topics like an international bailout or the imposition of capital controls are now being discussed in Turkish and international financial circles.

There were signs of alarm among Turkish citizens. Visits to three different bank branches in Istanbul on Friday indicated that requests for foreign-currency withdrawals had increased. It’s not unusual for branches not to have enough foreign exchange on hand for large withdrawals, and tellers at the branches said they were awaiting cash to be delivered from headquarters to meet demand.

If they were intended to calm markets, speeches on Friday by President Erdogan and another by his son-in-law, the newly appointed economic czar, had the opposite effect. Erdogan was defiant about resisting what he calls a financial attack and requested that citizens exchange their dollars and euros for liras instead. Berat Albayrak, the minister, gave a presentation largely devoid of figures or specifics.

“Those who assume they can bring us to our knees through economic manipulations don’t know our nation at all,” Erdogan said in Gumushane near the Black Sea, where he was breaking ground for a new roadway. He said Turkey could achieve record economic growth in 2018, “despite all the attacks staged against our country through foreign exchange rates."

In the wake of the U.S. doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum on Friday, Erdogan wrote a New York Times op-ed cataloging his grievances and threatening to walk away from their decades-old alliance. "Failure to reverse this trend of unilateralism and disrespect will require us to start looking for new friends and allies," he wrote.

Ibrahim Kalin, Erdogan’s spokesman, tweeted on Saturday that the U.S. is “facing the risk of completely losing Turkey."

The financial turmoil is showing signs of spilling over into the rest of the economy. Turkey’s private companies have borrowed heavily in foreign currencies and now sit on a pile of debt equivalent to about 40 percent of yearly economic output. Over the past year, several of the nation’s largest and most respected conglomerates have requested restructurings of billions of dollars in foreign debt, and more are sure to follow.

“Seems like a complete crash, so they need to act now,” said Morten Lund, a strategist at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen. “The lira will keep falling if they don’t hike rates.”

An aggressive rate hike by the central bank, on the order of 1,000 basis points, would be a “good start,” according to Paul Greer, a money manager at Fidelity International in London.

On the U.S. side, Trump tweeted his analysis of the situation after new tariffs on steel and aluminum were announced: "Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!"

I've been saying this since the day they purchased that Russian air defence system-they are no longer our allies, they are our rivals and are looking to recreate a greater Turkey/Ottoman hegemony in their neighbourhood. We need to get Armenia and Georgia into NATO as soon as possible.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:31 am

Kurdistan would freak the fuck out of him.

Anyway, Diyarbakir AFB will probably only last as long as the current lease.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by kirrabi » Mon Aug 13, 2018 2:17 am

How do people not laugh at the presidential palace?
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by LonelyTeaPot » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:08 am

It will be all right. The Americans may have their US Dollar but the Turks have allah on their side. What can possibly go wrong?

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by GayTurk_Izmir » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:23 am

Two mentally 10-year-old bullies bullying each other.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by LonelyTeaPot » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:44 am

Yes, but Trump has got the upper hand in this. I hope you haven't exchanged your dollars and euros into liras yet.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by simon_in_exile » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:01 am

Reply to wellpisser’s Armenia and Georgia into NATO comment - Armenia unlikely as they’re mates with Russia. Georgia, if I were in Tbilisi’s shoes, I would be very keen, but stories here in Russian press suggest it could precipitate another invasion, reading between the lines. It was easier for eg Baltic States to join when Russia was weaker, but now it’s a much more risky proposition.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by GayTurk_Izmir » Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:09 am

LonelyTeaPot wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:44 am
Yes, but Trump has got the upper hand in this. I hope you haven't exchanged your dollars and euros into liras yet.
I have no dollars or Euros ,all my investments are in Turkish liras,the interest rates are rather good at the moment,as the TL goes down vs the foreign currencies Turkish central bank increases the interest rates for the Turkish lira.
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:29 am

It's the social media's fault! And not Tayyip's son in law, who is the finance minister.
“There are economic terrorists on social media,” Erdogan told a gathering of Turkish ambassadors at the presidential palace in Ankara, adding that the judiciary and financial authorities were taking action in response.

“They are truly a network of treason,” he added. “We will not give them the time of day... We will make those spreading speculations pay the necessary price”.

Erdogan, who gained sweeping new powers following his re-election in June, said rumors had been spread that authorities might impose capital controls in response to the slump in the currency, which tumbled as much as 18 percent on Friday alone.

The interior ministry said it had so far identified 346 social media accounts carrying posts about the exchange rate that it said created a negative perception of the economy. It said it would take legal measures against them but did not say what these would be.

Separately, the Istanbul and Ankara prosecutor’s offices launched investigations into individuals suspected of being involved in actions that threaten Turkey’s economic security, broadcaster CNN Turk and state news agency Anadolu reported.

Turkey’s Capital Markets Board (SPK) and financial crime board have also said they would take legal steps against those who spread misinformation about financial institutions and firms, or reports that the government would seize foreign-currency deposits.

Earlier on Monday, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, who is also Erdogan’s son-in-law, said Turkey would start rolling out an economic action plan on Monday.

Albayrak stressed the importance of budget discipline, and ruled out any seizure or conversion of dollar-denominated bank deposits into lira.

Economists say the lira’s fall is due to worries about Erdogan’s influence over the economy, his repeated calls for lower interest rates, and worsening ties with the United States over the detention of a Christian pastor and other disputes.

Erdogan reiterated on Monday his view that the currency’s crash had no economic basis, saying that U.S. sanctions imposed on Turkey over the terrorism trial of the pastor, Andrew Brunson, represented a “stab in the back” by a NATO ally.

The lira stood at 6.89 against the U.S. dollar at 1511 GMT - after Erdogan’s comments - up from a record low of 7.24 to the dollar reached in early Monday trade.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... KBN1KY1R9
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by misanthrope » Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:53 am

Erdogan has gone full retard. I wonder how many will salute this flag. And I hope that Trump can keep his piehole shut and let Erdogan do his "Life is Beautiful" routine instead of giving him a convenient enemy where one doesn't outside of Turkey itself.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by polardude1 » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:57 am

GT
,as the TL goes down vs the foreign currencies Turkish central bank increases the interest rates for the Turkish lira.
Good with that inflationary ride
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by coffeeguy » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:11 pm

Lost Soul wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:29 am
It's the social media's fault! And not Tayyip's son in law, who is the finance minister.
“There are economic terrorists on social media,” Erdogan told a gathering of Turkish ambassadors at the presidential palace in Ankara, adding that the judiciary and financial authorities were taking action in response.

“They are truly a network of treason,” he added. “We will not give them the time of day... We will make those spreading speculations pay the necessary price”.

Erdogan, who gained sweeping new powers following his re-election in June, said rumors had been spread that authorities might impose capital controls in response to the slump in the currency, which tumbled as much as 18 percent on Friday alone.

The interior ministry said it had so far identified 346 social media accounts carrying posts about the exchange rate that it said created a negative perception of the economy. It said it would take legal measures against them but did not say what these would be.

Separately, the Istanbul and Ankara prosecutor’s offices launched investigations into individuals suspected of being involved in actions that threaten Turkey’s economic security, broadcaster CNN Turk and state news agency Anadolu reported.

Turkey’s Capital Markets Board (SPK) and financial crime board have also said they would take legal steps against those who spread misinformation about financial institutions and firms, or reports that the government would seize foreign-currency deposits.

Earlier on Monday, Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, who is also Erdogan’s son-in-law, said Turkey would start rolling out an economic action plan on Monday.

Albayrak stressed the importance of budget discipline, and ruled out any seizure or conversion of dollar-denominated bank deposits into lira.

Economists say the lira’s fall is due to worries about Erdogan’s influence over the economy, his repeated calls for lower interest rates, and worsening ties with the United States over the detention of a Christian pastor and other disputes.

Erdogan reiterated on Monday his view that the currency’s crash had no economic basis, saying that U.S. sanctions imposed on Turkey over the terrorism trial of the pastor, Andrew Brunson, represented a “stab in the back” by a NATO ally.

The lira stood at 6.89 against the U.S. dollar at 1511 GMT - after Erdogan’s comments - up from a record low of 7.24 to the dollar reached in early Monday trade.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turk ... KBN1KY1R9
sounds like another freak, closer to hone loosy stool.

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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:50 am

Here's a nice synopsis of Turkey's demise under Tayyip, from the Guardian.
Hubris begets nemesis, as the ancient Greeks opined. It’s a life lesson Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s arrogant leader, appears unable to absorb as his country teeters over an abyss of his making. Erdoğan argued in June’s elections that an all-powerful executive presidency was the best way to govern – and he was the best man for the job. His wish was granted. Now Turkey is in crisis. The fall from grace – this shattering of the omnipotent strongman-sun king image – has come more quickly than anybody imagined. And since Erdoğan is in sole charge these days, he will be hard put to avoid sole blame.
*
*
While Erdoğan cannot escape political responsibility, he is nevertheless trying hard to do so. He blames a foreign conspiracy for the lira meltdown. “What is the reason for all this storm in a teacup? There is no economic reason ... This is called carrying out an operation against Turkey,” he told supporters in Trabzon. The US, he said, had stabbed Turkey in the back. Here was his usual offering of denial and defiance. Erdoğan habitually relies on a mix of nationalism, faith and fear of foreigners to deflect criticism. “If they have dollars, we have our people, our righteousness and our God,” he said last week.
*
*
In Donald Trump, Erdoğan faces a wilful egotist of similarly unbending disposition. The two have clashed over Turkey’s unjustified jailing of an American pastor on terrorism charges. Its decision to prolong Andrew Brunson’s detention personally irked Trump. Last week’s sudden imposition of sweeping US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports was one response. It intensified pressure on Ankara at a critical moment, no doubt deliberately.

But the US and Turkey have long been at odds over more weighty matters such as Syria, where Erdoğan has seized territory, ostensibly to contain the threat posed by Kurdish militias (whom he regards as terrorists). Latest reports say the Turkish army is encouraging the formation of a new force of non-Kurdish Syrian rebel factions with a view to creating a permanent border buffer zone. Naturally, this is opposed by Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus. The US, informally allied to Kurdish forces, is not keen on the idea, either.

Add to this past threats to attack US special forces in northern Syria and Iraq, his rejection of Trump’s sanctions on Iran and subservience towards Israel, Turkey’s opaque links to Islamist groups, its limiting of airbase facilities available to Nato forces fighting Islamic State and its purchase of advanced Russian-made missiles, and it is not hard to see why bilateral relations are on edge. Talks last week failed to bridge the gaps. When Erdoğan himself went to Washington last year, his thuggish bodyguards assaulted protesters and local police – an incident that understandably caused lasting anger.
*
*
And yet, in a rarely matched piece of geo-strategic incompetence, Erdoğan is now in danger of simultaneously alienating Vladimir Putin. The issue is Idlib, the north-western Syrian province that is the last refuge of anti-Assad forces
*
*
Besieged on all sides and failing internally – who can save Turkey from itself? The question is incorrectly framed. It really should be: who can save Turkey from Erdoğan? The answer: only Turks. But it’s going to take a while and will be a rough ride, and the accompanying domestic and international turmoil will be considerable. Like Icarus, Turkey’s hubristic, highly combustible sun king has a long way to fall.

• Simon Tisdall is a foreign affairs commentator
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... gan-hubris
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Re: Sayonara Tayyipistan

Post by simon_in_exile » Wed Aug 15, 2018 6:02 pm

Turkey and Russia had a spat a couple of years ago, after Turkey shot down a Russian plane that strayed into its territory. Russia responded by kicking out a load of Turkish businessmen, temporarily closing businesses e.g. hotels that are Turkish-owned, stopping Russian charter flights to Turkish tourist spots (just after Russian charters to Egypt had been banned after the Sinai plane downing - so bad timing!)... and also stopping import of fresh produce, which was cunningly times to commence just after Christmas so the traditional tangerines could still be imported..... fun times.
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