The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

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BeatRaven
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The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by BeatRaven » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:11 pm

Classes for Immigration Law have tripled in size, (possibly) due to Trump:

http://time.com/5327641/students-immigr ... ald-trump/

Felix, if they are non-native speakers of Spanish, should they even bother?

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dBrother
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by dBrother » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:46 pm

They'll probably work for near nothing to get a foot in the door..
It's a real prick when your industry is flooded with cheap labour, even more insulting if they're foriegn .
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DCComic
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by DCComic » Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:48 pm

Looks like they anticipate a shortage.
Whether the new intake oversupplies or undersupplies to fill the shortage is unknown.
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strife
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:01 pm

BeatRaven wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:11 pm
Classes for Immigration Law have tripled in size, (possibly) due to Trump:

http://time.com/5327641/students-immigr ... ald-trump/

Felix, if they are non-native speakers of Spanish, should they even bother?
Interesting. I hadn't thought about how Trumpism would affect this, but now that it do it's hardly surprising. There are a lot of True Believers in law school whose dreams have not (yet) been crushed. There's usually only one immigration law class available at law schools, and one clinic. The class is good for getting a framework of the current immigration structure, but the clinic is where students get real practice experience. Most of these students will emerge from law school and if, big if, they pass the bar exam and are admitted, will be too crushed by law-school debt to Save the World.

There are two sides to immigration practice: removal (deportation) defense, and affirmative practice. Idealists all want to do removal defense. It's really hard to make money doing this, since your clients typically don't have a pot to piss in. Their cases are hopeless - the best you can offer them is a bunch of continuances, an impossible request for cancellation of removal, with voluntary departure in the alternative. They hire you, you can offer them two more years in the country, rather than six months. They're going home, either way. You're litigating against ICE counsel who spend their days in immigration court doing nothing but this, on behalf of doomed clients. Happy endings are very rare in immigration court. Lawyering this way, you have a lot of court appearances on your calendar nine months out, making it impossible to plan any extended travel or Tom Joad-style migration in search of fat contract work. You're tethered to immigration court in Bloomington or Baltimore or wherever. I did this for a while, but the court appearances interfered with contract work, and I hate going to court, so quit taking full representation of clients in removal proceedings.

The other side to practice is affirmative. You represent people who aren't in trouble, like people who marry US citizens, businesses looking to sponsor workers for visas, and the sweet spot, rich foreign investors looking to buy green cards. Build up a practice here, you can make good money working from home in your bathrobe, or shirtless from the beach, or anywhere there's WiFi and access to a scanner and printer. The only time you need to be presentable is when you're signing a new client. Guess where I ended up?

Some of these lol students will wind up in public service. Removal defense is a very steep learning curve. I was humiliated by immigration judges, yelled at, almost Destroyed by a thrown book. Most of them will see their dreams squished like grapes. Doing removal defense, you need either Spanish (I did fine with my non-native Spanish), or strong ties to a particular immigrant community. I know a Somali lawyer back in Minneapolis who has that market cornered.

Ninety percent of today's lol students are befucked.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:02 pm

DCComic wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:48 pm
Looks like they anticipate a shortage.
Whether the new intake oversupplies or undersupplies to fill the shortage is unknown.
There is no shortage of lawyers in any practice area in the US. There's a shortage of experienced practitioners in removal defense. Larval lawyers are worse than useless, since they represent nonbillable hours to train them.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by BeatRaven » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:06 pm

Felix answered it all while I was typing the now useless text below:

Nah, college works the same in America as England: If they can hype people to study something of the moment and put asses in chairs, they will.

Think about it: Every additional ass on a chair over say, 20 is pure gravy.

I doubt we'll ever see the allowable immigration levels of the last decade in my lifetime. I'd imagine the asylum process is going to get streamlined eventually.

Is the future of Imm law mainly in HB-visa's? What will all of those new people do?

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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by dBrother » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:11 pm

BeatRaven wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:06 pm


I doubt we'll ever see the allowable immigration levels of the last decade in my lifetime. I'd imagine the asylum process is going to get streamlined eventually.
exponential population growth in a finite world has lead to exponential immigration growth into finite countries..

it cannot go on indefinitely .
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:12 pm

BeatRaven wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:06 pm

Is the future of Imm law mainly in HB-visa's? What will all of those new people do?
H-1Bs are controversial, and policy-wise unsatisfactory. Demand far exceeds the annual quota for H-1Bs. F-1 student visas are entitled to a year of work after they graduate on Optional Professional Training (OPT). They become valuable to whoever employs them that year, then they have at best a 50% or 33% chance, depending on the degree, of being able to sponsor them for an H-1B after that year of OPT. H-1Bs are a great windfall for me every March (we file on April 1 every year), but from any other perspective they are awful.

The future of immigration law practice is staying on top of developments. Every 15 or 20 years, the corpus of immigration statutes is overhauled, and we start over. Immigration reform is the great equalizer for immigration lawyers.

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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by BeatRaven » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:17 pm

Dbro hit it. No imms., no biz.

Across the world, the door is being slammed shut. I think of my effortless 5 visa-free years in England, as I'm sure, many a Turkish boyfriend pretending to be Greek in Suffolk does. Even Thailand is slowly turning the screws to pick off the old Cheap Charlies. EU gives you six months then get the fuck out.

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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:20 pm

As long as there are stark economic disparities between countries, there will be migration. No stopping it. We can acknowledge this inevitability, and craft realistic policy to channel and control migration, but there will be migration no matter what.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by OnTheBall » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:23 pm

You know how Felix and his ilk like to make fun of people whose livelihood can be taken away by freshly arrived migrants who can barely speak the language?

Well, it's happening....jajajajajaja

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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:26 pm

Hardly.

Go juice and pick up something heavy, OneBall.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by OnTheBall » Thu Jul 12, 2018 2:31 pm

You hardly make ends meet now, imagine when people see you for the fraudster you really are!

Jajajajajajajajajaja

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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by dBrother » Thu Jul 12, 2018 3:18 pm

yep, that boat's floating further away by the day..
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by BeatRaven » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:01 pm

But the world moves on.

My last paid job was as a policy analyst in inter-government relations. Trump don't want no policy paper on mass transit. Wonks in general, go fuck yourself.

In the post global world, there's less need for facilitators across the board. In the Trump world, argument-positers are dead. Argument=disloyalty.

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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:24 pm

Well, if the contract work dries up (eventually it will, in 5? 10? years - it's been picking up recently), and we seal the borders and go full Nork, I'll find another niche.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by simon_in_exile » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:44 pm

BTraven - don’t you think this “post-global” world of tighter borders is just another phase, which will play itself out in a decade or so? I do.

Flexi - didn’t you say you were going to the Texas-Mexico border? Maybe I misread.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by steveogolf » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:51 pm

Unmentioned by Felix is big bucks in the representation of the "coyotes"/"coyotajes".
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by strife » Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:56 pm

simon_in_exile wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:44 pm
Flexi - didn’t you say you were going to the Texas-Mexico border? Maybe I misread.
I was, maybe still am. On the bright side, enough Spanish-speaking lawyers responded that they were able to relegate me to backup, in favor of native Spanish speakers. My Spanish is good enough, but it isn't native. On the nuisance side, I don't have a driver's license, and south Texas without driving is problematic. There are ways to be useful from DC.
steveogolf wrote:
Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:51 pm
Unmentioned by Felix is big bucks in the representation of the "coyotes"/"coyotajes".
How so? Coyotes are a Mexican criminal/human trafficking issue, not a US immigration issue. Coyotes rarely cross the border from Mexico.
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Re: The Coming Immigration Lawyer Glut

Post by BeatRaven » Thu Jul 12, 2018 9:06 pm

Simon, I live in a part of the world where the need for foreign labor is acute and getting more so. My plumber is 80 years old.

But everyone here is anti-immigrant at levels that make Trump look like Citizen Baba. Even with some gentle do the math coaxing, they remain unmoved. It was the same in Suffolk UK, where they'd gesture towards a vast open meadow and say, "England's full up, mate".

I don't have the macro numbers to project when waiting 15+ minutes for McDonalds makes them love the brown man, but 10 years seems optimistic. I left England in '09 and they seemed rabid-crazy against the Polish people then; but really, I hadn't seen nothing yet.

I call these days post-global because I think the desire to embrace the other, either on Ko Phangan or in a vibrant (means cheap) ethnic food store is much less a itch that the young want to scratch (obligatory student loan mention here). We were lucky to see a Lonely Planet-fresh world in the 90's and aughts. Now it's time for the tedious reversion to the xenophobic mean.

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