Is China Losing the Trade War?

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:46 pm

It might be a good time to “take on China,” but Trump doesn’t know how to do it. He’s too incompetent.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:48 pm

Godjira wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:46 pm
It might be a good time to “take on China,” but Trump doesn’t know how to do it. He’s too incompetent.
How would you recommend we go about it?
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:57 pm

misanthrope wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:44 pm
China can't just decide to "cash in bonds". It could sell them. And they would find willing buyers around the world looking to mitigate risk.
Agreed. US treasuries are one of China's best assets.

"Since the US dollar has a variable exchange rate, however, any sale by any nation holding huge US debt or dollar reserves will trigger the adjustment of trade balance at the international level. The offloaded US reserves by China will either end up with another nation or will return back to the US.

The repercussions for China of such an offloading would be worse. An excess supply of US dollars would lead to a decline in USD rates, making RMB valuations higher. It would increase the cost of Chinese products, making them lose their competitive price advantage. China won’t be willing to do that, as it makes no economic sense.

If China (or any other nation having a trade surplus with the US) stops buying US treasuries or even starts dumping its US forex reserves, its trade surplus would become a trade deficit – something which no export-oriented economy would want, as they would be worse off as a result.

The ongoing worries about China's increased holding of US treasuries or the fear of Beijing dumping them are uncalled for. Even if such a thing were to happen, the dollars and debt securities would not vanish. They would reach other vaults."

Read more: The Reasons Why China Buys U.S. Treasury Bonds | Investopedia https://www.investopedia.com/articles/i ... z5KWPoWh18
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:16 am

twodogs wrote:
Godjira wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:46 pm
It might be a good time to “take on China,” but Trump doesn’t know how to do it. He’s too incompetent.
How would you recommend we go about it?
Beats me. I’m not an experienced politician, and neither is Trump.

You should have voted Hillary.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:29 am

Is the US preparing to slam China back into the dark ages?
By Houses and Holes in Australian Politics, Featured Article, Global Macroat 6:00 am on June 29, 2018 | 63 comments
OK, so the rhetoric of trade war is heating up fast. And it’s not all talk. The US is about to impose tens of billions in tariffs on China. With hundreds of billions more in the pipeline.

China meanwhile is crashing the yuan and preparing the troops, via Bloomie:

President Xi Jinping presided over a meeting of China’s highest decision-making body for the first time to discuss China-US relations, according to Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, in a note to clients.

At a subsequent two-day meeting, Xi reportedly spent over two hours talking about U.S.-China relations and called on all provinces and ministries to be prepared for a full-scale trade war, according to Ghahramani.

Chinese officials have concluded it appears inevitable the U.S. will impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods on July 6, and will respond accordingly with tariffs of their own.

Contrary to reports last week, SGH’s understanding is there have been no talks between the Commerce Departments of the two sides.

In the short term, officials expect the currency will weaken due to trade concerns.

The PBOC also will refrain from increasing holdings of U.S. Treasuries and, in fact, will seek to reduce them “appropriately,” Ghahramani writes.

The question I want to ask today is is this the start of something bigger, much bigger, like a full blown strategic face-off between our two great and powerful friends?

As noted before, I see Trump as a Jacksonian President. His goals are all very domestically focused. He wants out of any and all international relations. That means very much putting US domestic interests first in his international engagement. It does not mean that he is a push over in that desire to withdraw.

Today the US economy is booming. The Federal Reserve is hiking rates and has another year of doing so before it really bites growth and profits. But that timeline could be extended if Trump were unleash still more stimulus, say his $1tr infrastructure plan.

This is leaving China with a major cyclical headache. As reader Myne noted yesterday:

* If they dump treasuries, the USD falls and US goods become cheaper on a global basis. So even if they’re not buying, someone else will and it’s possible there’ll be a boom in the US while China prices itself out of the contest.

* If they drop the RMB as they have been doing, they run into the problem that a lot of their contracts globally are denominated in USD. Defaults cascade through their import sector. Impossible to make cheap things without inputs.

* If they try to match Trump on tariffs, they have to put them 5x higher for the same pressure. People keep saying they’re being surgical about it, but the reality is, they just don’t import all that much and they’ve nearly tariffed everything as it is.

* If they go to war, they’re about 10-15 years off being equals with the US. The US is still militarily very strong.

* If they increase trade with other nations, they’re going to compress margins (sell cheaper) by default since finding 300million customers basically dictates the EU which is already importing shitloads from them (and who Trump’s team is trying to twist their arms into aligning with the US most likely on cultural grounds) or poor countries. Can’t sell expensive shit to poor countries. They just don’t have it.

A nice summary. China is in a very vulnerable position as the US attacks both halves of its external account in trade tariffs and capital outflow.

So, is this deliberate by the US? Is it a part of a broader plan to trigger a much wider great power confrontation? It does not appear so to me. At least, not yet.

The goals of Donald Trump still appear domestic in nature. He is a businessman as well as Jacksonian. He wants an endless US boom not a global confrontation. He does appear sensitive to the stock market. And the experience of the North Korean diplomacy shows that he is willing to deal.

That said, there are China hawks around President Trump that would like nothing more than to “contain” China. National Security adviser John Bolton is an uber-hawk and US supremacist. Peter Navarro is very hawkish on the rise of China and its impacts upon US economic prospects. There are deep pools of distrust of China in the Republican Party more widely.

This is why I think China is making a major blunder in pushing Trump hard. As a Jacksonian POTUS he is more interested in less engagement but it is a grave to mistake to interpret that as easily manipulated into withdrawal.

If cornered, Jacksonians come out swinging with everything they’ve got. And that could include Australia, via Bloomberg:

In recent weeks, prominent academics have begun to question if China’s slowing, trade-dependent economy can withstand a sustained attack from Trump, which is already started to weigh on stock prices…Yu Zhi, an economic professor from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, questioned the wisdom of a more assertive foreign policy in a recent article published in Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao newspaper.

“Has China completed the task of ‘getting rich’? Has China completed the primary stage of socialism as Deng Xiaoping described? Can you begin to compete directly with the United States and other Western countries?” Yu wrote. “China should rethink its general strategic direction.”

…”If mismanaged and the China-US trade war is fully upgraded, it could expand into a financial war, an economic war, a resource war, and a geopolitical war,” Ren Zeping, chief economist at Founder Securities, wrote in one popular commentary published earlier this month.

“The US will use its hegemonic system established since World War II from trade, finance, currency, military and et cetera, to stop the rise of China,” said Ren, a high-profile economist who made headlines last year for earning a hefty paycheck.

It is not impossible to imagine Donald Trump turning his trade tariffs into virtual trade sanctions. That would be the end of China trade for the alliance network. He is already doing it to Iran.

If it really tried, the US could trigger a debt crisis in China and bash its development back a decade, or shove it permanently down the path of Japanese-style stagnation as its poor demographics assert themselves. It is easier than it sounds. All that needs to happen is Chinese capital outflow be stoked to a point where expectations make it self-fulfilling with a falling yuan. This may sound like a boon given improving export competitiveness but it isn’t. In extremis it would blow up Chinese rebalancing overnight via debt crisis. Too much capital outflow and a crashing yuan will drive up interest rates across the economy, as well as pop the realty bubble at the heart of China’s debt mountain.

Yes, China has some forex reserves and it owns its banks so it can control the descent to some extent. It can also close its capital account but that is also only limiting the damage. There are more incremental moves on that front today, at Bloomie:

China is slowing approvals for offshore bonds and considering whether to ban short-dated issuance in dollars, according to people familiar with the matter, moves that would reduce financing options for the debt-laden developers that sit at the center of the nation’s economy.

The National Development & Reform Commission is weighing a ban on the sale of dollar bonds with tenors of less than one year, said the people, who asked not to be named because they’re not authorized to speak publicly. The regulator is already restricting offshore issuance quotas for Chinese companies, people said.

Today China is letting capital outflow “weaponise” the yuan to punish Trump for tariffs. This is a stunningly risky gambit. It is offering the US the opportunity to smash it back into a temporary dark age if it so chooses and provoking it to do so at the same time. The US could counter-weaponise the yuan by pushing it much lower than China plans on.

I don’t think that this is the White House agenda but I do think that if China won’t deal on its trade cheating then it could accidentally bring it on.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:49 am

Interesting slant. I don't think it is as dire for China as the article says but it will slow their growth a bit and increase opportunity for some South American countries, the ASEAN nations and possibly even Canada if their dollar drops low enough.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:46 am

If you wanted to take on China, do it on ip and do it as a part of coalition of western countries. Trumpiedoodle of course did the opposite.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:31 am

eric84 wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:46 am
If you wanted to take on China, do it on ip and do it as a part of coalition of western countries. Trumpiedoodle of course did the opposite.
President Trump wants fairer trade agreements with many countries, not just China. Coalitions take too long to set up and are easily broken when billions of dollars in trade are at stake.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:37 am

All this is going to end up doing is making consumer prices higher for Americans, and probably cause wage deflation at the same time.

Trump doesn't have the wit to pull any of this off.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:38 am

twodogs wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:31 am
eric84 wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:46 am
If you wanted to take on China, do it on ip and do it as a part of coalition of western countries. Trumpiedoodle of course did the opposite.
President Trump wants fairer trade agreements with many countries, not just China. Coalitions take too long to set up and are easily broken when billions of dollars in trade are at stake.
Trumpiedoodle’s method is guaranteed to fail, mostly because he doesn’t know what he really wants from China. Hes incoherent.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:43 am

Godjira wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:37 am
All this is going to end up doing is making consumer prices higher for Americans, and probably cause wage deflation at the same time.

Trump doesn't have the wit to pull any of this off.
I'm tired of defending Trump when I think he's a narcissistic cunt, but I don't think that the harpies in here know anything about him. So what if we pay higher prices? If we keep outsourcing everything, we will end up looking like the countries we outsource to. Or would you prefer the US to look like India?

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:44 am

eric84 wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:38 am
twodogs wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:31 am
eric84 wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 1:46 am
If you wanted to take on China, do it on ip and do it as a part of coalition of western countries. Trumpiedoodle of course did the opposite.
President Trump wants fairer trade agreements with many countries, not just China. Coalitions take too long to set up and are easily broken when billions of dollars in trade are at stake.
Trumpiedoodle’s method is guaranteed to fail, mostly because he doesn’t know what he really wants from China. Hes incoherent.
How do you know any of that? Answer: You don't know shit.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:59 am

misanthrope wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:43 am
Godjira wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:37 am
All this is going to end up doing is making consumer prices higher for Americans, and probably cause wage deflation at the same time.

Trump doesn't have the wit to pull any of this off.
I'm tired of defending Trump when I think he's a narcissistic cunt, but I don't think that the harpies in here know anything about him. So what if we pay higher prices? If we keep outsourcing everything, we will end up looking like the countries we outsource to. Or would you prefer the US to look like India?
I don't care if Trump is a narcissistic cunt, I care that he is incompetent.

No one wants to work in those low paying labor intensive factory jobs. Eventually they're mostly going to be replaced by automation anyway. And then what? By the way, your example makes no sense: outsourcing jobs to countries like India will make a country more like India? So, why isn't India like the countries that it receives outsourcing from?

The solution is to increase US exports as the domestic US market is insufficient for sustainable growth. TPP would have been an efficient means to increase trade and tackle trade barriers. Another solution is to improve the quality and sophistication of US made products, not revert to labor intensive jobs no one wants.

Dave Chappell said something like "We don't want those jobs from China,that's why we sent them there to begin with". Something like that. Immigrants might want to do them, though.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sat Jul 07, 2018 6:08 am

It's more than low-paying factory jobs that are gone. Real jobs are gone sacrificed at the altar of the S&P and have been since fucking Nixon. It's amazing that you call yourself a democrat while you are happy to see your middle class eradicated for a few pennies on the dollar for your leather bathtub. Do you really not think that we can't manufacture cars in the US? Or alt. energy? Or all of the things that the IP lies here but make it cheaper for the Chinese to steal? The Chinese have been taking the piss for decades. It's time to stop. And you don't really give a shit about it. You and VinnyD care about your stock portfolios. You aren't democrats. You don't give a shit about people, unless muricans are bombing them.

TPP would have ring-fenced likeminded IP nations around China, but it was less than perfect and had way too much corporate influence - kind of like what I say about globalization failing in this iteration. It was a giveaway to big pharma.

Have you read the Micron story? Pure theft. And the TPP doesn't stop shit. It just evergreens drugs. Big Pharma wrote the TPP. And Big Pharma has done a lot in recent years in many therapeutic areas. But it's got too much influence.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:10 pm

Are you talking to me in that first paragraph? Because I never said any of it.

First, I have never called myself a Democrat. The companies I have invested are only those that manufacture in America. Of course the US can make cars or solar panels, in fact, I said exactly that. But, protecting the US market from competition via protectionism is terrible It leads to inefficiency, and the workers don't benefit from these tariffs and inefficiencies anyway, the owners do. Believe me, as soon as the price is right, they'll all move manufacturing offshore. Exports are the future for America, and America should think about access to Chinese markets.

The TPP provides the framework to attack trade problems. If someone wanted to take on the big pharmaceutical companies, then they have a framework to work within. Do you prefer some politician like Trump boasting of his non-existent deal making skills? Not me.

If you have a problem with China stealing intellectual property rights, than again, create a framework for dealing with it.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:33 am

Godjira wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:10 pm
Are you talking to me in that first paragraph? Because I never said any of it.

First, I have never called myself a Democrat. The companies I have invested are only those that manufacture in America. Of course the US can make cars or solar panels, in fact, I said exactly that. But, protecting the US market from competition via protectionism is terrible It leads to inefficiency, and the workers don't benefit from these tariffs and inefficiencies anyway, the owners do. Believe me, as soon as the price is right, they'll all move manufacturing offshore. Exports are the future for America, and America should think about access to Chinese markets.

The TPP provides the framework to attack trade problems. If someone wanted to take on the big pharmaceutical companies, then they have a framework to work within. Do you prefer some politician like Trump boasting of his non-existent deal making skills? Not me.

If you have a problem with China stealing intellectual property rights, than again, create a framework for dealing with it.
The framework for dealing with it was the TPP (possibly, but there are some weak hands) or protectionism. There are no other ways.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:35 am

misanthrope wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 4:44 am
eric84 wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:38 am
twodogs wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:31 am


President Trump wants fairer trade agreements with many countries, not just China. Coalitions take too long to set up and are easily broken when billions of dollars in trade are at stake.
Trumpiedoodle’s method is guaranteed to fail, mostly because he doesn’t know what he really wants from China. Hes incoherent.
How do you know any of that? Answer: You don't know shit.
I guess you’re not following this story that closely. Not surprising.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:56 am

I'm following it very very closely. You seem to not understand it, as per usual. You make it all up instead.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:54 am

misanthrope wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:56 am
I'm following it very very closely. You seem to not understand it, as per usual. You make it all up instead.
You think trump has a clear plan? Please, share it with us in your own words. Others have struggled to do so.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:05 pm

Change is good. Competition is good. Life is good.

BTW the US has some great deals on soybeans, cheese and pork if anyone is interested.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:15 pm

eric84 wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:54 am
misanthrope wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:56 am
I'm following it very very closely. You seem to not understand it, as per usual. You make it all up instead.
You think trump has a clear plan? Please, share it with us in your own words. Others have struggled to do so.
Trump's plan is to reduce the trade deficit with China with massive tariffs.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:33 am

misanthrope wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:15 pm
eric84 wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 5:54 am
misanthrope wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:56 am
I'm following it very very closely. You seem to not understand it, as per usual. You make it all up instead.
You think trump has a clear plan? Please, share it with us in your own words. Others have struggled to do so.
Trump's plan is to reduce the trade deficit with China with massive tariffs.
But what he does want China to do? Generally, you impose tariffs to make the other side do something. What is that something?
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:43 am

Punitive, perhaps for decades of ripping off IP? Repatriate some manufacturing? Fuck a strategic rival? Because the only way to deal with them is to hit them in the pocketbook?

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:51 pm

misanthrope wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:43 am
Punitive, perhaps for decades of ripping off IP? Repatriate some manufacturing? Fuck a strategic rival? Because the only way to deal with them is to hit them in the pocketbook?
So, you have just as much insight as anyone what Trumpiedoodle is trying to achieve. Which was my point.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:38 pm

President Trump is protecting US industry from unfair foreign competition. No different than Canada's 270% tariff on dairy just not as severe.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by DCComic » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:43 pm

Unfair foreign competition?

Would you like a thing?
Noooooo. Too cheap. Take it away.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:46 pm

twodogs wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:38 pm
President Trump is protecting US industry from unfair foreign competition. No different than Canada's 270% tariff on dairy just not as severe.
The question remains: what Trump want China to do so that tariffs could be lifted? Misery has at least admitted I was right that it's difficult to tell what Trumpiedoodle wants.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:55 pm

Why would President Trump want them lifted?

The US economy is booming and there are millions of unfilled jobs for the US citizens affected by the Chinese tariffs.

The US doesn't need China and China doesn't need the US. It is no different than grocery shopping, if you don't like one store for whatever reason you go to another one. No big deal.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:36 pm

twodogs wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:55 pm
Why would President Trump want them lifted?

The US economy is booming and there are millions of unfilled jobs for the US citizens affected by the Chinese tariffs.

The US doesn't need China and China doesn't need the US. It is no different than grocery shopping, if you don't like one store for whatever reason you go to another one. No big deal.
Ha, right, yes international trade is exactly like grocery shopping.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:19 pm

It is more complex but yes shopping is shopping. I don't know of a single item China produces that can't be manufactured in the US or purchased from another country and the same applies to China. We simply don't need each other.

This also opens the door for other countries to increase their trade like is happening between Brazil and China or South Korea and the US.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:28 pm

twodogs wrote:Why would President Trump want them lifted?

The US economy is booming and there are millions of unfilled jobs for the US citizens affected by the Chinese tariffs.

The US doesn't need China and China doesn't need the US. It is no different than grocery shopping, if you don't like one store for whatever reason you go to another one. No big deal.
That’s right.

There are too many jobs now. Tariffs will reduce the number of American jobs to just the perfect numbers.

No only that, they’ll be high paying $1 an hour jobs too.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:03 am

Tariffs don't reduce jobs if a country imports more than it exports like the US. They are designed to increase domestic production not reduce it.

That is why Canada protects it's dairy industry and Japan protects it's rice industry.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:43 am

Protecting the rice industry here decreases domestic production because they Japanese industry never modernized.

But, I hope you get one of those sweet gigs assembling tiny circuit boards 18 hours a day. By the time you retire in a few months, there'll be a robot there to take your place anyway!
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by misanthrope » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:26 am

eric84 wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:51 pm
misanthrope wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:43 am
Punitive, perhaps for decades of ripping off IP? Repatriate some manufacturing? Fuck a strategic rival? Because the only way to deal with them is to hit them in the pocketbook?
So, you have just as much insight as anyone what Trumpiedoodle is trying to achieve. Which was my point.
Im saying that you have none, yet you continue to post about it.

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by eric84 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:38 am

Actually, that wasn’t what you said. You said I made it up and upon further inspection you appear to agree with what I said.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Tue Jul 10, 2018 4:47 pm

It is pointless to blame China for past actions and stupid not to learn from them.
More irrational spitefulness coming from twodogs...

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:50 am

Asian stock markets fell Wednesday after the Trump administration announced it plans to slap tariffs on a further $200 billion of Chinese imports.

In China, the Shanghai SHCOMP, -1.87% and Shenzhen 399106, -2.18% composites recovered slightly after falling more than 2% in early trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -1.49% also stemmed early losses, with Tencent 0700, -1.96% and AIA 1299, -0.66% posting declines.

How low can they go?
More irrational spitefulness coming from twodogs...

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Flobster! » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:08 am

BMW, a major American car exporter, is to move some production to China rather than lose $1 billion due to Trump tariffs,
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:19 am

Wait until the prices spike at Walmart. They’ll run that Orange bastard out of Washington on a rail.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:18 am

Godjira wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:19 am
Wait until the prices spike at Walmart. They’ll run that Orange bastard out of Washington on a rail.
Not when it revives every downtown of every small town in Varmintstan, they won't.

Walmart is a sell until the Chicoms (the conservative ones, not the Chicago Commies) come to their senses.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:29 am

Anyone want to buy a $60 hammer?
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:35 am

Made by an American being paid a living wage, not a Walmart wage?
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Flobster! » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:39 am

That argument is actually the reason why straight tariff comparisons don't work. Australian agriculture (minimum wage about $25/hr) has to compete against US agriculture (employs illegals who don't even make the pathetic minimum wage).

If China goes ahead with its mooted 50% tariff on US almonds, our almond growers will be on a level playing field.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:41 am

Lost Soul wrote:Made by an American being paid a living wage, not a Walmart wage?
No. Made in China.

Do you want to make hammers all day?

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Lost Soul » Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:47 am

I've been paying more to avoid buying Chinese crap for 20 years.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Godjira » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:02 am

But have you been making crap for other people to buy instead of buying stuff from China?
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by twodogs » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:55 am

Flobster! wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:39 am
That argument is actually the reason why straight tariff comparisons don't work. Australian agriculture (minimum wage about $25/hr) has to compete against US agriculture (employs illegals who don't even make the pathetic minimum wage).

If China goes ahead with its mooted 50% tariff on US almonds, our almond growers will be on a level playing field.
A lot of smaller countries will benefit from increased trade with with China and the US. Not sure if the tariffs are high enough to totally offset Australian inefficiencies but they they will help.
More irrational spitefulness coming from twodogs...

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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by Flobster! » Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:56 am

Paying living wages aren't "inefficiencies".
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by flojin » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:56 pm

The libertarian wants protectionism and believes it will create higher wages.
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Re: Is China Losing the Trade War?

Post by birdlite » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:30 pm

twodogs wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:50 am
Asian stock markets fell Wednesday after the Trump administration announced it plans to slap tariffs on a further $200 billion of Chinese imports.

In China, the Shanghai SHCOMP, -1.87% and Shenzhen 399106, -2.18% composites recovered slightly after falling more than 2% in early trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -1.49% also stemmed early losses, with Tencent 0700, -1.96% and AIA 1299, -0.66% posting declines.

How low can they go?
We'll see
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-f ... 2018-07-11
U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with major indexes set for their first decline of the past five sessions after the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, the latest example of escalating tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, which investors fear could explode into a full-on trade war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.63% fell 156 points, or 0.6%, to 24,762. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.55% was down 13 points, or 0.5%, to 2,781. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.54% shed 0.4% to 7,726, a decline of 0.4%.
twodogs translation
U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, with major indexes set for their first decline of the past five sessions after the Trump administration announced new tariffs on Chinese goods, the latest example of escalating tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners, which investors fear could explode into a full-on trade war.

What are markets doing?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.63% fell 156 points, or 0.6%, to 24,762. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.55% was down 13 points, or 0.5%, to 2,781. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.54% shed 0.4% to 7,726, a decline of 0.4%.

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