ASEAN

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twodogs
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ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:15 pm

Spent the last four weeks in southeast Asia and came to admire Bilahari Kausikan. He seems to have a pretty good handle on the real world for a life long diplomat.

Loved it when he rebuffed critics of ASEAN by comparing it to criticizing a cow for not being a horse.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by coffeeguy » Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:06 pm

What specifically do you admire? I know little of his specific views other than he is candidly outspoken and honest and doesn't trust China.

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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:49 pm

Not sure that he doesn’t trust China but he does realize that dealing with them as a group is the best option for smaller countries. He also saw thru Obama’s weaknesses pretty quickly.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by guruwil » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:13 pm

Yes he is a very likeable and impressive guy. ASEAN was designed to be quietly effective and is exactly that giving a platform for the nations to quietly resolve differences and its main goal is peace high they beli ve if the cornerstone of development and it has been a very successful platform to begin the process of developing the nations. As far as China goes they definitely see the economic opportunity for the regions from China and don’t shy away from that but it is also an effective group diplomacy tool and they have been quietly working with China to try to develop an agreed South China Sea code of conduct for example.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:36 pm

Also realizes the value of TPP.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by rider5 » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:13 am

Is he an authoritarian? That seems to be the type twodogs goes for.

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Re: ASEAN

Post by Citizen Baba » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:18 am

rider5 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:13 am
Is he an authoritarian? That seems to be the type twodogs goes for.
You might want to slowly consider your question in light of the fact that Indonesia is probably the freest country in ASEAN.

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Re: ASEAN

Post by guruwil » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:08 am

Citizen Baba wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:18 am
rider5 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:13 am
Is he an authoritarian? That seems to be the type twodogs goes for.
You might want to slowly consider your question in light of the fact that Indonesia is probably the freest country in ASEAN.
Except he is Singaporean not Indonesian, so that probably means he at least to a degree has some mild authoritarian leanings
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:02 pm

As the US continues it's decline and China continues it's growth smaller nations particularly those in southeast Asia will have to adjust to the new world order. Kausikan is one of the few diplomats who doesn't qualify his response on this to the point it becomes meaningless.
"The 7th Fleet has never left," he says, referring to the US military formation headquartered in Japan and tasked with, among other things, the defence of the Korean Peninsula.

In fact, he reckons there are things the Trump administration has done better than the previous one under Mr Barack Obama.

"I think it was a fundamental mistake for Mr Obama to have drawn a red line over the use of chemical weapons in Syria and then do nothing. It just eroded the credibility of American commitments. And so, Mr Trump has done something to correct it by bombing Syria and doing it while having dinner with Mr Xi Jinping to boot," he says. In April this year, the US President informed the Chinese leader of his country's missile strikes against Syria's military over dinner at his private Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

He also says the Obama administration's policy of "strategic patience" was a big mistake which allowed North Korea eight years to develop its missile and nuclear weapon programmes.

The Trump administration's decision to deploy two carrier strike groups near Korean waters in response to recent North Korean missile tests was, hence, a good move.

"Sooner or later, North Korea will have a nuclear-capable ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) that can reach the US and it will be the right thing for Trump to maintain deterrence by showing resolve through a show of overwhelming force now," says Mr Bilahari, who is well-known internationally for his strategic analyses.

It won't change North Korean behaviour, but it will be a deterrent.

"And that's how nuclear powers have always dealt with each other ever since there were nuclear powers: by deterrence."

Contrary to what many people think, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, he says, is not a "nutjob".

"He's a very clever guy and coldly rational. I think the North Koreans are bad but they've never been mad. How can you call him mad when he's got what he wants and nobody has been able to stop him? He is setting the pace, not others," says Mr Bilahari, who was once Singapore's permanent representative to the United Nations and ambassador to Russia.
I think the sooner the US withdraws militarily from the world stage the better it will be for everyone. There is a small chance North Korea will use the opportunity to strike the US homeland but if we deal with them as effectively as we dealt with Japan's attack on Peal Harbor the world might see another sixty or seventy years of relative peace instead of facing another world war in a few years.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by rider5 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:35 am

And put the defense contractors out of business?

Maybe you really are a Libertarian.

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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:41 pm

Not at all we might even sell more arms and provide mercenaries to the countries unable or unwilling to defend themselves plus I wouldn't be adverse to building a larger fleet or nuclear submarines.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:04 pm

You can be isolationist and have huge military spending. Win, win!!
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Re: ASEAN

Post by Godjira » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:59 pm

And don’t forget, when the currency is devalued, all those weapons will be worth 10 times the dollars!
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Re: ASEAN

Post by rider5 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:44 am

I bet we could negotiate selling a couple of nukes to KSA for the price of erasing the national debt. Brilliant idea I say.

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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:57 pm

Godjira wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:59 pm
And don’t forget, when the currency is devalued, all those weapons will be worth 10 times the dollars!
Good point, then reducing the debt will be easier.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Thu Feb 22, 2018 2:58 pm

rider5 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:44 am
I bet we could negotiate selling a couple of nukes to KSA for the price of erasing the national debt. Brilliant idea I say.

twodogs is both a mercantilist and a nihilist.
No one advocated selling nuclear weapons.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:03 pm

No country with a positive trade balance maintains 800 military bases in 70 countries.

Why does the US?
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:07 pm

Why would the two be connected? A negative trade balance means consumers are getting to buy cheaper stuff. That's good, right?
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Re: ASEAN

Post by Godjira » Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:38 pm

I’m excited about yen/dollar parity. I’ll be able to stay at a hotel in the US for the price of a soda here.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:29 pm

Godjira wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:38 pm
I’m excited about yen/dollar parity. I’ll be able to stay at a hotel in the US for the price of a soda here.
Not sure if the two will ever reach parity but a weak dollar would make US products more competitive on the world market in addition to the increasing tourism.

I wonder if Japan would be willing to turn those vacant US military bases into Syrian, Bangladesh or Korean refugee camps?
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:35 pm

It would also mean US consumers would pay more for imported goods or US goods that are less efficiently made.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by Godjira » Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:31 pm

I think they’re turning Zama into a shopping mall. Maybe I can open a shop there selling cheaply made in America goods. Swords into plowshares!
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:41 pm

eric84 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:35 pm
It would also mean US consumers would pay more for imported goods or US goods that are less efficiently made.
And even more foreign manufacturers setting up shop in the US.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:43 pm

Godjira wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:31 pm
I think they’re turning Zama into a shopping mall. Maybe I can open a shop there selling cheaply made in America goods. Swords into plowshares!
Too far from Tokyo, better to use it for housing refugees.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by Godjira » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:39 am

That's true. We could use the immigrants.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:59 am

twodogs wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:41 pm
eric84 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2018 5:35 pm
It would also mean US consumers would pay more for imported goods or US goods that are less efficiently made.
And even more foreign manufacturers setting up shop in the US.
Providing jobs to Americans. Sad!
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:27 pm

eric84 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:59 am
Providing jobs to Americans. Sad!
Not at all, foreign auto manufacturers are already here and providing jobs.
foreign automakers produce more than 60 different car and truck models in the U.S., sell them in the U.S. and export them to other countries from the U.S.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:27 pm

Godjira wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:39 am
That's true. We could use the immigrants.
Agreed.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:18 pm

twodogs wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:27 pm
eric84 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2018 12:59 am
Providing jobs to Americans. Sad!
Not at all, foreign auto manufacturers are already here and providing jobs.
foreign automakers produce more than 60 different car and truck models in the U.S., sell them in the U.S. and export them to other countries from the U.S.
....and more would be bad? Is that what your're saying?
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Sat Feb 24, 2018 11:43 am

Of course not, the more the merrier. I wish the US had a 15% corporate tax like Canada to attract even more foreign investment. Why are we shipping products half way around the world that can easily be produced here?
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Sat Feb 24, 2018 2:02 pm

Because they can do it cheaper there? This is why we have international trade. Autarky should never be a goal as it leads to inefficiently made, high cost goods.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:35 pm

Autarky isn't the goal, making the US more competitive is. A US built Toyota or Honda already have more US parts than a Chevy or a Ford and is likely to increase when NAFTA is renegotiated.

https://www.cars.com/articles/the-2016- ... 684865874/
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Re: ASEAN

Post by eric84 » Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:22 pm

You can’t change auto content rules without car company buy in. They already have a well developed supply chain in North America. If you try and undo that, it would cost billions in us plants. Car companies have said they’ll pay the duties before they do. I suspect the us will drop that idea.
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Re: ASEAN

Post by twodogs » Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:56 pm

eric84 wrote:
Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:22 pm
Car companies have said they’ll pay the duties before they do.
Link?
several automakers have announced plans to move automotive manufacturing to the U.S. since Trump took office. Most significantly, Toyota and Mazda announced plans to build a $1.6 billion plant in Huntsville, Ala.
Fiat Chrysler this month announced plans to shift production of heavy-duty trucks from Mexico to a plant in Warren, Mich.
Mahindra Automotive North America (MANA) opened a new North American HQ and manufacturing operation, the first such new OEM facility in Southeast Michigan in over 25 years.
BMW Manufacturing announced today that it exported a record 287,700 BMW X models from the Spartanburg plant during 2016. Approximately 86 percent of these Sports Activity Vehicles and Coupes were exported through the Port of Charleston with an export value of $9.53 Billion, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. This confirms that the South Carolina factory is the leading U.S. automotive exporter by value.
The above are short term and while Mexico will do okay it looks pretty grim for Canada.
Canada’s auto industry may be headed down the same road as Australia’s and cease to exist between 2030 and 2040, says auto analyst Dennis DesRosiers.

“We may not lose it all,” DesRosiers said Tuesday. “But on every cyclical downturn, we’ve lost capacity. We won’t close all at once. That’s why I’m putting in a long time frame.”

Once home to six carmakers, Australia is expected to lose its remaining manufacturers – Toyota, Ford and Holden – a General Motors subsidiary – within three years. After the government turned down a request for a $275 million subsidy, Holden announced last year it would shutter its operations by 2017. Soon afterward, Toyota Motor Corp. said it too would shut down its plants by 2017. The automakers cited the high value of the Australian currency as the key reason for their decision.

DesRosiers said Canada could meet a similar fate as long as it continues to lose out on new capacity investments to such jurisdictions as Mexico and the U.S. south.
This could happen even quicker if the US adopted the same 15% corporate tax as Canada.
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