Trumponomics is working

Main Course
User avatar
Electrolyte
Sole Guardian of Truth and Sanity
Posts: 8902
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 10:09 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Electrolyte » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:19 am

Anyone wonder what is happening in the rest of the world?

Vanguard's US Total Stock Market Fund has gone up significantly less in the last year (21%) than their European (27%), Pacific (28%), or Emerging Market (31%) funds.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... irect=true
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... irect=true
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... irect=true
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... irect=true

What did Trump do to cause us to lose to the rest of the world?

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:33 am

Capitolhill wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:54 pm
I said before the 2008 election, whomever won was going to get a ton of credit for economic revival because they were essentially getting in “low” after the crash. Correlating financial markets with “red team” vs “blue team” is pretty stupid for the most part.
Well done; up there with correlating to an eclipse or who wins the superbowl (100% accurate when first discovered in the late 1970s I think).

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:41 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:40 pm
I'm not asking for the economics equivalent of the fucking Higgs boson, here.
You should be if you are trying to create a real Science verses a wishy washy "Social Science".

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:47 am

vanceen wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:11 pm
Smoker wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:47 am
vanceen wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:45 pm
Using a one-tailed t-test, it turns out that there is about 80% probability that the difference between the two means for % change in the markets is not zero. In other words, the claim that there is a positive correlation between Democrats in office and stock market performance is valid.
True but still all the work is ahead for any partisan puppet trying to pretend their person being in the White House is the root cause of a stock market rally. Thinking correlation confirms whatever your emotional bias is for causation is probably the most common mistake made in statistical analysis in our world. This mistake keeps the talking heads on commentary programs in business and the partisan puppets on both sides brainwashed lemmings to their team & Dear Leader.
100% agree.
Godjira wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:29 am
Exactly Smoker.
Hahaha! So is this the first time this has ever happened in stew history?

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:10 am

Annotated wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:01 pm
At one point in my life, I actually worked with some very high level economists who would have to try to turn things like a new warlord into a variable that they could use in their equations. As you might imagine, it never turned out very precise. BUT, at least they recognized that they would have to try to account for such a variable.
Wow! No wonder economists never make any money in the markets.

You and thegreenlantern both need to give your heads a shake when it comes to economics making predictions in the real world.

Ok Annotated here is a tip from a professional proprietary trader that started way back in 1982 and is still in the business but retiring this year.

You constantly try to eliminate variables in your models & equations rather than adding variables; you know like degrees of freedom and that crap.

Think of sending a space probe out to Jupiter; do you think when calculating trajectories etc they try to cram the gravitational effect of every rock, asteroid, and the effect of the solar wind and whatever other crap variables you can think of into the equations? No you figure out the most important (the main one being Jupiter itself) and go with the minimum possible.

A stock market example is replicating an index where you try to keep tracking error to a minimum. So when you try to replicate the SPOOS you don't buy every stock in the S&P 500 because the skids and commissions would freaking kill you. You instead whittle it down to as few as stocks as possible and you use those (like 20 or whatever instead of 500) and forget about the rest.

You know the other freaking reason the economists can't get any thing right. The moron economists keep over fitting their models trying to minimize error in backtesting so they end up with extremely fragile models that are fantastic at predicting what happened yesterday but with zippo ROSUSTNESS (remember that freaking word; it is vital for any proprietary trading methodology) going forward into the future. However the economists over fitted models do look great in power point presentations showing how well they can "predict" the past.

This is why the Talking Heads on the economics TV shows can always ramble on about their reasons for why (for example) the recent sell off happened but they can never predict it.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Annotated
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 21140
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 8:20 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:43 pm

Smoker wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:10 am
Annotated wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:01 pm
At one point in my life, I actually worked with some very high level economists who would have to try to turn things like a new warlord into a variable that they could use in their equations. As you might imagine, it never turned out very precise. BUT, at least they recognized that they would have to try to account for such a variable.
Wow! No wonder economists never make any money in the markets.
Well, they weren't trying to make money in the markets.

They were trying to do things a little more complicated than that.

And I haven't made one single prediction. I simply looked at what has already happened. It may all crash down tomorrow. But that's not what this thread is about.
The First White Man to Ever be Woke

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:46 pm

Markets are taking another dive today. Viva El Trumpo!
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:41 pm

You should be if you are trying to create a real Science verses a wishy washy "Social Science".
Good thing that's not what I'm trying to do. As I've said at least half a dozen times.
And I haven't made one single prediction.
No, but you are claiming that you know the cause of a particular economic change. If you think establishing causation is somehow less complicated methodologically...
I actually worked with some very high level economists who would have to try to turn things like a new warlord into a variable that they could use in their equations.
Interesting. This sounds more or less what I do now, although I'm a little leery of using equations for too much in conflict contexts. To think that one of my RAs might someday be an Annotated on some future Political Stew somewhere. Warms me heart, really.

sodelicious
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 11063
Joined: Tue Nov 27, 2007 8:39 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by sodelicious » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:03 pm

The Dow took another tumble today.
Everyone is a victim to a social worker.

User avatar
cowtown
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 25750
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 6:53 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 pm

anyone else wondering what ROSUSTNESS is, I mean it is in ALL CAPS and underlined

Must be one of those fancy gambler words
Jim-2012 wrote:I *heart* Hitler



Image

User avatar
shunter
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 17467
Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2005 1:56 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by shunter » Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:51 pm

sodelicious wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:03 pm
The Dow took another tumble today.
Down 4%. Interesting to see how trump reacts. He was tweeting criticism of the market after the last fall. That’s a man who doesn’t believe in markets, or understand them. He’s a Cnut.
1988: "We have a climate in Britain in which business wants to succeed and can succeed." Margaret Thatcher, speech to launch the European Single Market

2018: "Fuck business." Boris Johnson

User avatar
eric84
Moderator
Posts: 55242
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:31 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:05 pm

Trumponomics works less well with each day that passes.
Love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair.

User avatar
northern_goddess
Queen Bee
Posts: 52726
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:48 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by northern_goddess » Thu Feb 08, 2018 10:32 pm

The markets have fallen bigly.
I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it.

http://www.fat-pie.com/salad.htm

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:21 am

cowtown wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 pm
anyone else wondering what ROSUSTNESS is, I mean it is in ALL CAPS and underlined Must be one of those fancy gambler words
Pathetic! What a weak post when the only counter your can think of is to point at a typo.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:23 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:41 pm
You should be if you are trying to create a real Science verses a wishy washy "Social Science".
Good thing that's not what I'm trying to do. As I've said at least half a dozen times.
Yes it is a good thing for you because it is something you & economics can't do ie be actually accurate and useful verses a talking head rambling away about his "theories" on why this or that president is good or bad for the stock market.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:28 am

Annotated wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:43 pm
Well, they weren't trying to make money in the markets. They were trying to do things a little more complicated than that.
This is probably the silliest thing posted so far on this thread and that is really saying something.

It is easy to add another variable to your over optimized and curve fitted economic model perfect for predicting yesterday but it is tough to be right about the future which is what making money in the markets is all about.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:35 am

"Yes it is a good thing for you because it is something you & economics can't do ie be actually accurate and useful verses a talking head rambling away about his "theories" on why this or that president is good or bad for the stock market."

We should all try to be like Smoker and make millions for ourselves and our clients with a "proprietary model" that came down to us from the heavens, which we have never changed to match observation, and that doesn't rely on any insights from economics or business.

Then, once it's time retire, we should all spend hours and hours bickering with people we've never met about answers we don't even believe anyone can know.

Truly the wisdom of ages.

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:52 am

Actually, my favorite part about this "Smoker" charade is that the guy who's all excited about his usefulness claims to be a stock-trading baby boomer.

Like, if you had to choose a person to blame for America's transition from a booming middle class society where college was affordable with a part time job into a debt-driven oligarchy in which the basic qualification for a decent future costs three years wages, it would literally be this Godron Gekko wannabe.

If this is a parody account by old-time Stewbie, seriously: bravo. The attention to detail is stunning.

rider5
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 18623
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:45 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by rider5 » Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:59 am

No one reads the repetitive smoker prolix these days except maybe the brain damaged lost soul. It could all be written by an experimental ai entity and no one would know the difference. No one would care about the difference.

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:20 am

Trumponomics are working!! The second government shut down in as many weeks- when his party controls both houses of congress! Stock market in a free fall because of good earnings and low unemployment! It's The Bizzaro States of America
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:29 am

For Smoker, winning an argument is not about actually winning an argument, it is about never admitting he was wrong or made a mistake. He thinks that's "winning." Sometimes his arguments get so distorted that they don't even resemble actual arguments anymore, like if you took a hanger and tried to improve it's design by twisting it into an appealing shape rather than something that holds a shirt better.
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:38 am

rider5 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:59 am
No one reads the repetitive smoker prolix these days except maybe the brain damaged lost soul. It could all be written by an experimental ai entity and no one would know the difference. No one would care about the difference.
I was starting to wonder if it was a new handle for whoever drove LouKnee. It's a little hard to know which of the "new" handles are "new".

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:04 am

Smoker has been here a long time, but he only started posting frequently over the last few years.
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:10 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:38 am
I was starting to wonder if it was a new handle for whoever drove LouKnee.
rider5 wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:59 am
No one reads the repetitive smoker prolix these days except maybe the brain damaged
Godjira wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:29 am
Sometimes his arguments get so distorted that they don't even resemble actual arguments anymore,
thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:52 am
Actually, my favorite part about this "Smoker" charade is that the guy who's all excited about his usefulness claims to be a stock-trading baby boomer.
Oh Excellent! The classic proof of a debate slam dunk when the plebs are unable to come up with any counterpoints so are reduced to nothing but ad hominem attacks.

Well that was easy.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:15 am

Like the time Smoker said a Moroccan and a French Canadian could be easily confused when they speak Arabic.

He continuing to defend this ridiculous point is “winning.”

And now he claims to have “slam dunked” my argument when all I did was agree with him earlier.
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

User avatar
Annotated
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 21140
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 8:20 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:38 pm

Smoker wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:28 am
Annotated wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:43 pm
Well, they weren't trying to make money in the markets. They were trying to do things a little more complicated than that.
This is probably the silliest thing posted so far on this thread and that is really saying something.

It is easy to add another variable to your over optimized and curve fitted economic model perfect for predicting yesterday but it is tough to be right about the future which is what making money in the markets is all about.
They weren't looking back. They were looking forward. And they were dealing with the economies of whole countries, not just the trade of goods and services.

And it wasn't just theory. And it wasn't just an exercise. And they weren't just betting what they could afford to lose. They quite literally had people's lives in their hands.

As I said, a little more complicated.
The First White Man to Ever be Woke

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:37 am

You should PM me their names. I'd be curious to read this stuff.

User avatar
Citizen Baba
Mayor McCheese
Posts: 23746
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:44 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Sat Feb 10, 2018 5:46 am

Developing world econ is even less accurate because the measurements are a lot less precise and there's lot less data. You'll notice that growth rates from year to year tend to wildly fluctuate, for example. (As elsewhere, the remedy is three-year averages.)

For instance, take Cameroon: https://tradingeconomics.com/cameroon/gdp-growth

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:16 am

Most of the econ work I see in Africa involves random trials to measure effects in micro-level outcomes, not the sort of attempts to maximize the model's r-squared on a macro outcome that seem to be the whipping posts in this thread. What I consume is obviously biased by the fact that macro stuff doesn't affect my work, but in the current issue of AER, the flagship journal in the American discipline, maybe two or the ten articles could be billed as anything like macro prediction.

https://www.aeaweb.org/issues/494

This issue of the Journal of Development Economics has zero articles on macro indicators, and three policy evaluation RCTs.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/j ... s/vol/131/

It's almost like part of the problem is that the most critical voices on the thread don't really know what social scientists do.

User avatar
VinnyD
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 63774
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:35 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:57 am

As I said before, I don't think the economy in the first year a president is in office has as much to do with that president as with his predecessor. Seat of the pants estimate is that between twelve and eighteen months in, the incumbent's influence outweighs his predecessor's. By eighteen months, it is on the incumbent. But "it", i.e. the president's influence on the economy, is a relatively minor, but not negligible, factor in how the economy is doing. And finally, the stock market is not the economy.

Having gotten all those caveats out of the way, a comparison (for those, like the OP, who thiink that the stock market of the last year reflects well on Trump)::

Image

Source.

User avatar
Citizen Baba
Mayor McCheese
Posts: 23746
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:44 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:37 pm

Development economists and the World Bank certainly look at macro factors, while most look at the micro effects of various interventions, be they economic or health or whatsoever. I could bullshit a logic model in a few minutes. Of course, there’s no correlation whatsoever between aid and overall economic growth.

gl — Ever read Easterly?

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:11 pm

"Development economists and the World Bank certainly look at macro factors"

For sure. The meta-argument of the thread, though, is whether economics is better or worse when it makes pretensions toward being scientific. I'm sure it's not an absolute rule, by in my experience professional development economists are the most likely to p-hack and curve fit precisely because they brush off comparisons with science. Using past data to precise the model is what makes it fragile ... and what makes it anti-scientific. The irony of Smoker and Annotated's complaints is that greater attention to the scientific method makes social scientists less likely to make the mistakes they claim undermines econ's credibility. That's not to say peer reviewed social science doesn't have it's problems, but they aren't the problems Smoker thinks they are. Academics do p-hack, but the expectations of the discipline mean those that do try to hide it rather than flaunt it.

I've read a fair amount of Easterly, although less of the aid skepticism that made him famous. He (with Alberto Alesina and Reza Baqir) wrote a foundational article for the argument that ethnic diversity slows economic growth (probably through the under provision of public goods). The debate that ensued from Easterly's work on this topic is, I think, a good example of how social science has changed in the last 20 years. The cross-national, negative correlation between diversity and growth (or public services) breaks down within countries. The modern articles in this debate tend to test how the relationship between diversity and growth changes conditional on (for example) the institutions that govern service provision. Some institutions seem to incentivize ethnic coalitions in government, others to empower single ethnicities to exclude others from services.

It's the kind of move that should make social science skeptics in this thread happy, but they don't seem to acknowledge the shift, or know that it happened.

(The Easterly article I'm talking about: https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/hand ... sequence=2)

User avatar
Citizen Baba
Mayor McCheese
Posts: 23746
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:44 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:28 am

One of Easterly's basic points is that for many developing world problems we've known the technical solutions for decades and decades, yet they keep bringing in "technical experts". And, in the end, the problem isn't that technical solutions aren't known, but that poor people simply have too few rights, and that rights lead toward prosperity and growth, not ever more technical solutions. I've seen that in my own work. Aid agencies will go through contortions not to criticize the host government and to see problems in only technical fashion. Of course, this doesn't rule out empirical studies, and Easterly talks about the noise and the signal in micro studies. Being honest about the difficulty discerning the signal in the noise is a credit to social science, not its undoing.

As far as I know, the current thinking is that ethnic diversity harms growth to a certain level of development, but helps in more developed countries with more specialized diverse economies and ethnic niches. (I think it's Collier, but I'm not sure who studied it.)

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:45 am

I'm completely in the camp that sees aid's effectiveness as tightly capped by the elite's ability to repress the poor. Land title and electoral reform seem particularly important. As much as this justifies cynicism in the industrial-aid complex, the obviousness of the institutional fixes hasn't done anything to affect them. This suggests both that social science expertise is still helpful for understanding patterns in elite abuse of institutions and that such policy-neutral examinations might still lead to policy-relevant discoveries. It's also hard (for me) to tell the extent to which aid agencies are duped, complicit, or have reason to believe that certain aid programs might slowly shift institutional realities in ways that bring about these rights indirectly.

The way that I've seen the diversity deficit conceptualized is consonant with the discussion of aid; where the powerful have opportunities to balkanize politics by ethnicity, they take it. Between-group isolation and distrust makes it easier for political elites to avoid accountability for poor service outcomes, and engage in clientelism that maximizes their own profit from political influence. I suppose I could see the argument in places where the economic and institutional context limited the incentive for ethnic politics, social diversity could lead to more diverse perspectives for competition and specialization, but I haven't seen any of that research.

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:54 am

As an example, a colleague wrote several pieces about how subsidized fertilizer deliveries in Uganda were cut with sand by bureaucrats who sold off the stolen fertilizer. The papers demonstrated a link between certain distribution methods and the higher rates of theft. A few of the programs that supply the fertilizer took notice, changed their distribution set-up to the more successful models and started implementing delivery-point purity tests. Farmers in a number of countries started getting better fertilizer immediately.

How long will it take for bureaucrats to find new ways to steal the aid? Will the better fertilizer have positive health effects on the community? Will any positive effect generate the resources necessary to pressure for lasting institutional change?

These are open questions about which few people are very optimistic, but this is work that strikes as more than nothing.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:18 am

Godjira wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:15 am
Like the time Smoker said a Moroccan and a French Canadian could be easily confused when they speak Arabic.
Yes that was also excellent.

Godjira the moron who doesn't speak either Arabic or French and has never lived in Quebec, France or the Middle East was pretending to be a linguistic expert in these various accents.

What a hoot!

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:29 am

Annotated wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:38 pm
Smoker wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:28 am
Annotated wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:43 pm
Well, they weren't trying to make money in the markets. They were trying to do things a little more complicated than that.
This is probably the silliest thing posted so far on this thread and that is really saying something. It is easy to add another variable to your over optimized and curve fitted economic model perfect for predicting yesterday but it is tough to be right about the future which is what making money in the markets is all about.
They weren't looking back. They were looking forward.
Hilarious! Making accurate predictions (ie looking forward) is the exact thing academics and economists are terrible at verses real world practitioners.
Annotated wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:38 pm
And they were dealing with the economies of whole countries, not just the trade of goods and services.
What do you think traders do when they are trading stock index futures like the SPOOS or CAC-40 or whatever?
Annotated wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:38 pm
not just the trade of goods and services.
What are you talking about? The trade of goods and services is part of every individual countries domestic economies and also the international global economy.

You aren't making any sense.
Annotated wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:38 pm
And it wasn't just theory. And it wasn't just an exercise. And they weren't just betting what they could afford to lose. They quite literally had people's lives in their hands.
Oh Wow! Annotated, you really buried the lead. So if these academics and economists you were working with were so fabulous at predicting the future they must have solved a lot of problem in these third world countries, CORRECT?
Annotated wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:38 pm
As I said, a little more complicated.
No it is a simple truth that economists are usually big failures when they step out of the theoretical and try to use their pet theories to predict markets in the real world.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:57 am, edited 5 times in total.
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:42 am

Citizen Baba wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:28 am
for many developing world problems we've known the technical solutions for decades and decades, yet they keep bringing in "technical experts". And, in the end, the problem isn't that technical solutions aren't known, but that poor people simply have too few rights, and that rights lead toward prosperity and growth, not ever more technical solutions.
This post isn't half bad and in fact pretty good but you should have expanded it a little.

The solution for third world poverty is right in front of our faces and has been for the latter half of the 20th century.

Two basic steps is all it takes:

1. The empowerment of women, give women some control over their reproductive cycle and access to credit etc and the standard of living in village XYZ improves quickly; almost right in front of your freaking face yada yada yada. BTW Christopher Hitchens brought this up in a debate to devastate some morons (it is on youtube) and was as expected pretty eloquent about it so go check it out.

2. Introduce free enterprise capitalism with an effective, well paid police force providing security and a independent judicial system to enforce contracts and private ownership etc and third world XYZ is off and running to prosperity.

For successful technical innovation the best example is the invention of the "SHIPPING CONTAINER" and subsequent globalization of trade has pulled hundreds of millions etc of third world people out of poverty in the last forty years or so VERSES the post WWII UN and/or rich countries foreign aid programs which have been dismal failures in eliminating third world poverty and great successes in lining the pockets of third world government officials, diplomats, dictators etc.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:44 am

Smoker wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:18 am
Godjira wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:15 am
Like the time Smoker said a Moroccan and a French Canadian could be easily confused when they speak Arabic.
Yes that was also excellent.

Godjira the moron who doesn't speak either Arabic or French and has never lived in Quebec, France or the Middle East was pretending to be a linguistic expert in these various accents.

What a hoot!

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Quod erat demonstrandum
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

flojin
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 7611
Joined: Thu Feb 17, 2005 5:38 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by flojin » Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:47 pm

Smoker wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:42 am
The solution for third world poverty is right in front of our faces and has been for the latter half of the 20th century.

Two basic steps is all it takes:

1. The empowerment of women, give women some control over their reproductive cycle and access to credit etc and the standard of living in village XYZ improves quickly; almost right in front of your freaking face yada yada yada. BTW Christopher Hitchens brought this up in a debate to devastate some morons (it is on youtube) and was as expected pretty eloquent about it so go check it out.

2. Introduce free enterprise capitalism with an effective, well paid police force providing security and a independent judicial system to enforce contracts and private ownership etc and third world XYZ is off and running to prosperity.

For successful technical innovation the best example is the invention of the "SHIPPING CONTAINER" and subsequent globalization of trade has pulled hundreds of millions etc of third world people out of poverty in the last forty years or so VERSES the post WWII UN and/or rich countries foreign aid programs which have been dismal failures in eliminating third world poverty and great successes in lining the pockets of third world government officials, diplomats, dictators etc.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
And how would you implement these simple solution, smoker? It sounds as simple as "liberate Iraq and democratize the region," and yet, that wasn't simple at all.
Lost Soul wrote:I have it on good authority that William Brennan, Maobama's CIA head, will be referred by the IG for criminal indictment.

User avatar
eric84
Moderator
Posts: 55242
Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2005 8:31 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:04 pm

Gosh, why didn't anybody think of that??
Love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair.

User avatar
VinnyD
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 63774
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:35 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:09 pm

Smoker, when you use the quote function, e.g. in yur sig lines, there is automatically a blank line under the quote. If you type immediately under the quote, or quote something else immediately under the quote, it will look on your screen as if there will be single-spacing under the quote, but in fact there will be double spacing. You should edit your siglines to remove all that blank space in your posts.

User avatar
cowtown
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 25750
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 6:53 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:39 pm

Smoker wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:21 am
cowtown wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:32 pm
anyone else wondering what ROSUSTNESS is, I mean it is in ALL CAPS and underlined Must be one of those fancy gambler words
Pathetic! What a weak post when the only counter your can think of is to point at a typo.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
So wait, we were even talking to each other, like you thought I was engaging or trying to counter your whatever?

OK champ

Nope, silly me, I actually thought it may be a catch phrase or mean something specific because I figured with all the buildup, hype and the deliberate font-ing
Jim-2012 wrote:I *heart* Hitler



Image

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:19 am

cowtown wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:39 pm
So wait, we were even talking to each other, like you thought I was engaging or trying to counter your whatever?
Hahaha! Excellent! No we weren't and you showed you weren't when you couldn't think of any counterpoint and the best thing you could come up with was to point out a typo!

How pathetic!

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:32 am, edited 2 times in total.
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:24 am

eric84 wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:04 pm
Gosh, why didn't anybody think of that??
Gosh eric84 the Winnipeg Civil Servant it is obvious to anyone that has looked at successful countries and societies verses the basket cases of the 20th century.

Tribalism & Socialism brings back breaking poverty and empowerment of women and especially control over their reproductive cycle & micro credit & free enterprise capitalism brings prosperity.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 13, 2018 5:30 am

flojin wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:47 pm
And how would you implement these simple solution, smoker? It sounds as simple as "liberate Iraq and democratize the region," and yet, that wasn't simple at all.
Gee flojin why don't you study the dozens of examples in the 20th century where medieval tribalism and socialism produced poverty verses free enterprise capitalism and the empowerment of women and democracy etc producing prosperity?

Maybe flojin the moron you should start with reading the history of the Grameen bank in Bangladesh; as finance goes it is quite the page turner.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

User avatar
Godjira
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 67155
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:04 am

Anyone who disagrees with Smoker is Kim Jong Il.

Flojin asked how you were going to implement your grand plan. He wasn't criticizing free-market capitalism.

How are you going to implement that plan?
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

User avatar
Smoker
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 8602
Joined: Thu Jul 04, 2013 9:15 am

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:37 am

Godjira wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:04 am
How are you going to implement that plan?
Gee Godjira why don't you study the dozens of examples in the 20th century where medieval tribalism and socialism produced poverty verses free enterprise capitalism and the empowerment of women, especially control over their reproductive cycle and democracy etc producing prosperity?

Maybe Godjira the moron you should start with reading the history of the Grameen bank in Bangladesh; as finance goes it is quite the page turner.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:49 am

Smoker wrote:The classic proof of a debate slam dunk when the plebs are unable to come up with any counterpoints so are reduced to nothing but ad hominem attacks.
Mmm-hmm.
Smoker wrote:flojin the moron
Lemme guess: he started it?

thegreenlantern
Stew Ingredient
Posts: 1602
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 4:37 pm

Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:53 am

flojin wrote:It sounds as simple as "liberate Iraq and democratize the region," and yet, that wasn't simple at all.
Right? Obviously these simple solutions haven't been implemented already because someone opposes them, and understanding why or how might be valuable, in some way.

Post Reply