Trumponomics is working

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vanceen
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by vanceen » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:36 pm

Some have said that equities are falling because interest rates are likely to rise in response to low unemployment, i.e. to fend off the inflation due to tight labor markets.

I don't pretend to know for sure if that's right, but it seems more plausible than TRUMP SUCKZ! (or TRUMP RULZ! for that matter). Despite my skepticism about predictive economic models, there are such things as sound, logical economic principles.

Money has been looking for somewhere to go besides equities, and it stands to reason that stock prices will go down fast as interest rates rise. I would guess that the correction will go on for a while.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:48 pm

Down 998 points. Negative for the year.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by shunter » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:53 pm

Down 8% in 6 trading days
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:54 pm

This thread didn't age well.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Logg » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:54 pm

If the new Fed chief decides to raise interest rates will Orange Chavez try to interfere?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:09 pm

Social science ain't hard science. That's not a knock on social science at all. There are many variable that go into it, a lot of noise, and people's perceptions, so determining absolute correlation is difficult. That don't make it junk.

Pretty much everyone here predicted a "correction", but nobody, scientist or not, could tell you when that correction would be.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by shunter » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:13 pm

Logg wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:54 pm
If the new Fed chief decides to raise interest rates will Orange Chavez try to interfere?
The tax cut makes a rise more not less likely and as Trump Moto is: The buck stops here (pointing at someone else) then it’s muellers er al fault for destabilising the market with this Russia Russia Russia stuff when trump has already been vindicated etc etc
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:18 pm

Releasing the memo wasn't great strategery then?
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:44 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:35 pm
1) The average S&P annual return under Obama was 16.5% (235% over his term), compared to Trump's 21% this past year. The uptick you're describing started before the election, and there are Obama years around 21%.
First, the uptick started before the election?

The facts say otherwise.

Image

Image

Secondly, and more importantly, using numbers from earlier in Obama's term when the country was climbing out of a deep recession is a little disingenuous. Or maybe not. Maybe you'd like to trot out growth numbers from after The Great Depression to prove how much Trump sucks. :lol:

If we're trying to work out whether Trump has had a positive impact on the economy, it might be better to look at "his economy" vs the year or two that came before it.

I mean if at 40 years old you were to take a drug that promised to make you run faster, it might be better to compare your 40-year-old self to your 39-year-old self, not your 20-year-old self.

The OP claims that "Trumponomics is working." Cool to choose the single indicator best suited to claim Trump is doing well, but "the economy" is a bit wider claim than "one stock index". DOW returns, unemployment, and wages are even closer to Obama's trend.
Again, you use this word "trend" with no specifics behind it. (Talk about vague.)

As I said, "going up" is a little different from "going through the fucking roof."

So what do you say we back off this slippery little fake news word "trend," unless you'd like to put contextualized specifics behind it. (I'm guessing "trend" must be the buzzword in the libtard media these days. "How do we justify Trump's success??????")

But anyway, you said you want to look at "DOW returns, unemployment, and wages."

OK, let's do that.

The Dow

Image

Now, can you use the word "trend" in a sentence to describe the chart above?^

Unemployment

Unemployment is like weight. The last 5 pounds are the hardest to take off. The closer you get to full employment, the slower the numbers go down, and the harder it is to get those numbers down.

But let's take a look at what's happened with unemployment under The Donald's reign anyway.

From Jan. 2016 to Jan. 2017, unemployment went from 4.9 to 4.8.

That's a 2% decrease.

From Jan. 2017 to Jan. 2018, unemployment went from 4.8 to 4.1.

That's a 14.58% decrease.

In other words, unemployment decreased over SEVEN TIMES more than it did the previous year (even as it gets harder to decrease that number).


Wages

In the words of CNN (that's CNN!!1!!!!1!1! ... Fake News Central).
The U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, and wages grew at the fastest pace in eight years. ...

Wages were up 2.9% compared with a year earlier, the best pace since June 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/02/news/ec ... index.html

And finally ....
I really don't think Trump supporters would face such skepticism from liberals if instead of saying "Trump rulez!" and pointing to a cherry-picked stock result, they said "anticipation of Trump's deregulation and tax cuts generated a short-run increase in stock markets that were already doing quite well".
I really don't think that libtards would face such skepticism if instead of saying, "Trump suks!" and pointing to ... well, absolutely nothing, they looked at the facts and said, "Trump rulez!"

Look, dude, unless you live and breathe fake news (which MANY here do, including you, it seems), then you only had to tangentially pay attention to the economy last year to see how much it improved over the last few years.

Saying, "Trumponomics is working" is as obvious as saying water is wet, unless, again, you read nothing but politically motivated fake news.

This whole dog and pony show you've put on in this thread is only a testament to how desperate libtards are to deny Trump his due.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:47 pm

Cherrypicking Anno would be your trumpiedoodle nickname.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Logg » Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:59 pm

It's amusing to watch this guy work. Annotated is the guy who was certain, certain, that Seth Rich was murdered by Democrats because he knew too much. He watched some documentary that blamed Courtney Love for killing Kurt Cobain and he believed it hook, line, and sinker.

These things may not be related to the economy, but they show the patterns of how a mind works.

The Chavistas did a lot of crowing too, for the first few years.

The tax cut is the first significant piece of Trump policy. It's the first thing that's his. We'll have plenty of time to revisit the wisdom of it over the next few years. It almost feels like we'll have inflation again soon. It'll be interesting to see Trump take on the Fed.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:01 pm

You gotta wonder if he didn't want Yellen again simply because he didn't appoint her.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:06 pm

Does anyone remember way, way, way back when, when Obama was president, conservatives told us that labor force participation rate and the deficit were the most important metrics?

This is the game that moves as you play.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:07 pm

Logg wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:59 pm
Annotated is the guy who was certain, certain, that Seth Rich was murdered by Democrats because he knew too much.
No, that's a "maybe" in my book. Possibly even a "possibly."
He watched some documentary that blamed Courtney Love for killing Kurt Cobain and he believed it hook, line, and sinker.
Oh yeah. That bitch is guilty as hell.

Anyway, Logg, how would you explain the economy basically riding along exactly the same for two years, and then Trump gets elected and suddenly it explodes into a different gear.

I guess like greenlatern, you think it was an econ-bomb planted by Obama three years earlier, and it was set to go off at the exact moment Trump got elected.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:13 pm

vanceen wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:36 pm
Some have said that equities are falling because interest rates are likely to rise in response to low unemployment, i.e. to fend off the inflation due to tight labor markets.

I don't pretend to know for sure if that's right, but it seems more plausible than TRUMP SUCKZ! (or TRUMP RULZ! for that matter). Despite my skepticism about predictive economic models, there are such things as sound, logical economic principles.

Money has been looking for somewhere to go besides equities, and it stands to reason that stock prices will go down fast as interest rates rise. I would guess that the correction will go on for a while.
Oh, hey look. A specific and logically consistent theory of how three important macro-economic variables might work together. Maybe we should see if available evidence makes this theory seem plausible? If this theory is true, we should at the very least see some evidence of a short term linkage between bond and equity prices!

A very quick Google scholar search of "equity bond linkage" reveals a number of papers that claim to observe exactly this negative relationship between national interest rates and equity prices. In fact, a couple of papers have even explored how between-country differences in transparency about upcoming rate shifts helps explain the amount of time equities markets seem to anticipate changes in bond returns. This helps deal with (but doesn't entirely banish) the also logically consistent explanation that bond and equity markets are linked because equity sell-offs trigger bond demands that issuers capitalize on by raising rates.

Maybe we can't tell for absolute certain how exactly the relationship works in every market situation, but maybe also this is a "sound, logical economic principle" in part because we've observed it happen in somewhat similar ways a bunch of different times. We can't precisely predict the two year note yield six months from now, but isn't this obviously a metric fuckton more fun and productive than face-smashing the computer every time Argon OPs that Trump is amazing because the sun came up this morning?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:19 pm

Anyway, Logg, how would you explain the economy basically riding along exactly the same for two years, and then Trump gets elected and suddenly it explodes into a different gear.
See, this is what I'm talking about. How many times does it make sense to respond to Annotated's obvious falsehood that "the economy is in a different gear" before we give up and talk to someone that it is some sense willing to respond to evidence or claim something, anything, that doesn't allow them to hide behind one cherry-picked stat?

If everyone is going to claim that there's no science in social science, the Stew is just going to be a bunch of anonymous Sisypheans pushing annotated up the same hill over and over and over again.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:26 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:19 pm
Anyway, Logg, how would you explain the economy basically riding along exactly the same for two years, and then Trump gets elected and suddenly it explodes into a different gear.
See, this is what I'm talking about. How many times does it make sense to respond to Annotated's obvious falsehood that "the economy is in a different gear" before we give up and talk to someone that it is some sense willing to respond to evidence or claim something, anything, that doesn't allow them to hide behind one cherry-picked stat?
One cherry-picked stat?

LOL!

I picked the three stats that you yourself mentioned (though granted, I didn't compare Trump's era to the post Great Depression era as I should have - THAT would have proved how much Trump suckz!).

You've become laughable now.

Such a long-winded dog and pony show, and this is how it all ends.

Sad!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by polardude1 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:41 pm

DOW down 1000 points today. Any tweets from the Scumbag in Chief?
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:42 pm

The only thing Trump has is tax cuts, the promise of tax cuts, and the promise of deregulation. It’s helped created a stock bubble, that’s about it.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:44 pm

polardude1 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:41 pm
DOW down 1000 points today.
Did you bust your nut when they rang the bell?
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Logg » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:47 pm

Annotated wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:07 pm
Logg wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:59 pm
Annotated is the guy who was certain, certain, that Seth Rich was murdered by Democrats because he knew too much.
No, that's a "maybe" in my book. Possibly even a "possibly."
He watched some documentary that blamed Courtney Love for killing Kurt Cobain and he believed it hook, line, and sinker.
Oh yeah. That bitch is guilty as hell.

Anyway, Logg, how would you explain the economy basically riding along exactly the same for two years, and then Trump gets elected and suddenly it explodes into a different gear.

I guess like greenlatern, you think it was an econ-bomb planted by Obama three years earlier, and it was set to go off at the exact moment Trump got elected.
That's your interpretation of greenlantern's posts. I'm not deep enough into the weeds of this discussion to comment.

It's interesting that you pick the last two years of Obama's terms for some reason. Generally when people look at economic indicators like the stock market they look at long term trends. Cherry-picked data is the weakest kind of argument there is.

What explains the runup connected to Trump's election? Something like irrational exuberance comes to mind. Trump's election signals a period of massive deregulation, a 'pro-business' economy, and supply side economics. The stock market has been going up since OBama inherited the last Republican meltdown, but now there's a surge. Surges don't necessarily signal economic health as much as slow and steady does. A surge means Wall Street financial houses know that happy days are here again, just like 2006. The landscape is littered with wreckage from supply-side deregulation during Republican administrations, and this is how it starts.

Trump is a salesman. Naturally he hypes the stock market as the barometer of success for his administration when it goes up. And the True Believers follow in step. He brags when the Dow goes up and....does what when it goes down?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:56 pm

"Again, you use this word "trend" with no specifics behind it. (Talk about vague.)"

Okay. Running an f-test on the difference on averages between Trump's year in office and the Obama years returns a null finding because the standard errors surrounding Trump's single year are large, as is the variation in annualized returns during the Obama years. Without more years or a greater difference between Obama and Trump's annualized return on the S&P, it is statistically impossible to determine if the difference in returns is due to something other than Trump's election. The "trend" coming from the Obama years is, statistically, a much wider spread than you seem to understand.

Is that precise enough?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:03 pm

Mr. Dog&Pony,

We've covered this. Go back and read what I wrote.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:04 pm

And, oh yeah, LOL!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:09 pm

It’d be funny if the Dow went under 20,000.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:22 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:56 pm
"Again, you use this word "trend" with no specifics behind it. (Talk about vague.)"

Okay. Running an f-test on the difference on averages between Trump's year in office and the Obama years returns a null finding because the standard errors surrounding Trump's single year are large, as is the variation in annualized returns during the Obama years. Without more years or a greater difference between Obama and Trump's annualized return on the S&P, it is statistically impossible to determine if the difference in returns is due to something other than Trump's election. The "trend" coming from the Obama years is, statistically, a much wider spread than you seem to understand.

Is that precise enough?
The market did well under Bush. And then it didn't.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:43 pm

Citizen Baba wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:01 pm
You gotta wonder if he didn't want Yellen again simply because he didn't appoint her.
I think it is just a tiny bit more complicated than that. Yellen had been appointed by Obama. If Trump had reappointed her, he would have been saying that Obama had made a good decision. He will never do that.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:59 pm

He wants to make America great again. But it's tough to figure when that "again" refers to to him, because it couldn't have been great because Trump wasn't president.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Electrolyte » Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:46 am

Awesome! Trump rides the policies of Obama for a year. Then he finally passes his first major legislation and it takes just weeks for the market to nosedive.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:24 am

shunter wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:58 pm
Smoker wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:32 am
thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm
"Whether you think Trumponomics is working or not depends on cognitive bias."
No that is exactly right. If you voted for Trump you think he is doing a good job and good things immediately get credited to him and bad things get blamed on his predecessor.

And if your person didn't win against Trump you fool yourself in the same way the other side does due to your own cognitive bias.
thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm
than his immediate predecessor," then the answer is "no," as demonstrated by the data I presented above.
Wrong you are making the mistake amateurs make regarding a presidents power over the stock market and economy etc.

You are kind of like a bronze age priest pointing at an eclipse and saying MY GOD is responsible for that so bow down to MY GOD the only TRUE GOD.

The fact is your God didn't have a lot to do with making a "good times" economy and/or stock market that is due to free enterprise capitalism and Adam Smith's invisible hand.

However a president and/or government can screw things up so the smart play as a government and/or president is stay out of the economy and let the invisible hand & free enterprise do its thing but take credit for the good things and blame the bad things on your predecessor.

Similar to how that bronze age priest claims natures powerful events are due to MY GOD. If they are good that is because you are listening to your priest and if they are bad it is because you are sinner against your priest and MY GOD.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Complete twaddle; you have a child’s understanding of economics.
Wrong, not a child's understanding but the understanding of a professional proprietary trader that works for the richest guys in the world so I know because I see it in the markets every day that that economics is not a hard science like physics but a wishy washy social science that isn't very effective when it comes to accurate predictions.

The simple truth is trading against economists in love with whatever market prediction their pet "economic school of thought" came up is a pretty lucrative way to make a living.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:31 am

Logg wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:47 pm
Trump is a salesman. Naturally he hypes the stock market as the barometer of success for his administration when it goes up. And the True Believers follow in step. He brags when the Dow goes up and....does what when it goes down?
Trump is just a goof and your statement is technically correct but to make it universally correct you should include that the partisan puppets on the other team do the exact same thing when it is their person that is in power.

Both sides proclaim their God gets credit for the magical eclipse and when bad things happen is it the guy from the other team's fault.

This thread is a pretty decent example of that exact behavior.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:46 am

vanceen wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:14 pm
To attach any significance to that difference in averages, you would need to calculate the standard deviation for the whole body of data and compare that to the differences between the means using a F test or s test. I'm away from my home computer at the moment, but I may do that later.
The problem is even if you analyze the crap out of the SPOOS run during the Obama years verses Trump year it is kind of futile when you can't confirm causation verses correlation.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:01 am

vanceen wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:09 pm
I did not say that Presidents can have no influence on the economy. Of course they can. But I think it's very bold to claim that they can control or take credit for a good outcome, especially in the short term.
Correct but not only you; no one said Presidents can have NO INFLUENCE on the economy. They & governments in general can screw things up.
vanceen wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:09 pm
Economics has a dismal record with regard to prediction.
If you can believe it economists are even worse at trading mainly due to risk control than they are at prediction.

This is because economists (& many academics) get emotionally invested in their particular "school of economics" predictions so they fall in love with their predictions and when they express that love by putting on a market position when it takes a dive they get stubborn and instead of bailing out they turn into Kamikaze pilots.

It is kind of amazing to watch an academic that has entered the business on the basis of some nice academic papers looking at their screen yelling at the market like it is a living being out to get them because it doesn't behave like their pet economic model says it should behave etc.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by polardude1 » Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:30 pm

The problem is even if you analyze the crap out of the SPOOS run during the Obama years verses Trump year it is kind of futile when you can't confirm causation verses correlation.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/yup-sean-han ... 52694.html
Fox's Sean Hannity blames Obama for the LOL of the day

President Barack Obama left office more than a year ago, but that didn’t stop Fox News host Sean Hannity from blaming him for the stock market slide.

On his Fox News radio show on Monday, Hannity said the market drop ― which at its worst saw the Dow industrials plunge by nearly 1,600 points and closing down 1,175 points for the day ― wasn’t the fault of President Donald Trump.

It’s his predecessor that’s to blame.

“Because the Obama economy was so weak all of these years, we had just artificially cheap money,” Hannity said, referring to a Fox News analysis he had seen on the cable network.

He explained that “cheap money” is from borrowing at “ridiculously low rates,” which he added must now end.

“The government has artificially, the Fed has artificially, kept the price of money down and the price of borrowing down, and now that’s going to come to an end.”

Then, he declared that the plunge ― which saw stocks erase all their 2018 gains ― is actually good.

“In many ways, it’s a sign of the strength of the economy more than anything else,” he said in comments posted online by Media Matters.

Listen to the full clip above.
This article originally appeared on HuffPost.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by vanceen » Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:45 pm

vanceen wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:14 pm
VinnyD wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:40 pm
Correction.
I would like to see charts that attributed the first year of a president's term to the previous president (who I think has more influence in that period than the incumbent). I think the Democrats might do even more than 75% better per year than the Republicans.
The annual increase was 133% better under Democrats than Republicans (7% compared to 3%). I misremembered the Republican increase as 4% and didn't bother to check even with the chart right in front of me. It wouldn't surprise me if it were 8% compared to 2.5% if you did my reattribution of the first year to the previous president.
To attach any significance to that difference in averages, you would need to calculate the standard deviation for the whole body of data and compare that to the differences between the means using a F test or s test. I'm away from my home computer at the moment, but I may do that later.
Using a one-tailed t-test, it turns out that there is about 80% probability that the difference between the two means for % change in the markets is not zero. In other words, the claim that there is a positive correlation between Democrats in office and stock market performance is valid.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by sodelicious » Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:44 pm

The Dow has had a bounce back today. It's up 565 points 15 minutes before closing.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:54 pm

Thank you, vanceen.
NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)—One day after the Fox News Channel host Sean Hannity blamed him for the historic plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, former President Barack Obama agreed to stop making stocks tumble.

“Sean Hannity has accused me of making the stock market go down,” Obama told reporters on Tuesday morning. “All I have to say is, ‘Guilty as charged.’ ”

A visibly chastened Obama said that, at first, he thought that he had gotten away with making the stock market crash, but when he saw Hannity blame him on Fox, “I knew I had been busted.”

Obama offered scant explanation for why he had made stocks crash on Monday. “I guess since leaving the White House I haven’t really found enough ways to fill my time, so tanking the stock market seemed like something to do,” he said. “But I know that’s not a good excuse. The fact is, I caused a lot of folks a lot of pain yesterday, and for that I am very, very sorry.”

He said that he would “get to work right away” to return stocks to their previously lofty levels. “I made the stock market go down, and, darn it, I can make it go up again,” he said.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:47 am

vanceen wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:45 pm
Using a one-tailed t-test, it turns out that there is about 80% probability that the difference between the two means for % change in the markets is not zero. In other words, the claim that there is a positive correlation between Democrats in office and stock market performance is valid.
True but still all the work is ahead for any partisan puppet trying to pretend their person being in the White House is the root cause of a stock market rally.

Thinking correlation confirms whatever your emotional bias is for causation is probably the most common mistake made in statistical analysis in our world.

This mistake keeps the talking heads on commentary programs in business and the partisan puppets on both sides brainwashed lemmings to their team & Dear Leader.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:29 am

Exactly Smoker. The markets would be at exactly the same level whether Trump or Hillary won.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by vanceen » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:11 pm

Smoker wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:47 am
vanceen wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:45 pm
Using a one-tailed t-test, it turns out that there is about 80% probability that the difference between the two means for % change in the markets is not zero. In other words, the claim that there is a positive correlation between Democrats in office and stock market performance is valid.
True but still all the work is ahead for any partisan puppet trying to pretend their person being in the White House is the root cause of a stock market rally.

Thinking correlation confirms whatever your emotional bias is for causation is probably the most common mistake made in statistical analysis in our world.

This mistake keeps the talking heads on commentary programs in business and the partisan puppets on both sides brainwashed lemmings to their team & Dear Leader.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
100% agree.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Capitolhill » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:54 pm

I said before the 2008 election, whomever won was going to get a ton of credit for economic revival because they were essentially getting in “low” after the crash.

Correlating financial markets with “red team” vs “blue team” is pretty stupid for the most part.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:01 pm

Capitolhill wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:54 pm
Correlating financial markets with “red team” vs “blue team” is pretty stupid for the most part.
"For the most part" may be true, but it's hard to deny what's happened since Trump was elected.

You don't get a massively different result like this just out of the blue. You have to consider the new variable thrown into the equation:

Image

The reason economists are so shitty at predictions (or even evaluations) is because they have to try to quantify things such as sentiment and mood and emotion, because as much as anything else (at least in a free market), that's what powers the engine.

At one point in my life, I actually worked with some very high level economists who would have to try to turn things like a new warlord into a variable that they could use in their equations. As you might imagine, it never turned out very precise. BUT, at least they recognized that they would have to try to account for such a variable.

Now, all that said, of course the gains made in Trump's first year could eventually come crashing down completely, but that doesn't negate that fact (and it does seem like a fact to me) that Trump's promises, his commitment to business, his mentality, and last but not least, his majorities in the House the Senate are what has given the markets and the economy as a whole a shot in the arm.

I learned from first hand experience a long time ago that it starts at the top. Two different people in the exact same position can affect those under them in ways that result in very different outcomes.

I mean can you imagine the same thing happening under Hillary? ... Alas, we'll never know. Or, well, who knows. 2020 is just around the corner!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:15 pm

Capitolhill wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:54 pm
I said before the 2008 election, whomever won was going to get a ton of credit for economic revival because they were essentially getting in “low” after the crash.

Correlating financial markets with “red team” vs “blue team” is pretty stupid for the most part.
I diagree. That is lazy

Various strategies were employee worldwide that greatly affected their economies post 2008 and therefore had different outcomes, many could be classified as ‘red’ or ‘blue’.

I do think the stock market post-Trump strongly reacted to the promise of corporate tax cuts and deregulation.

Promise is a key word as perception and faith Vis-à-vis optimism vs pessimism are key movers of the stock market where economic policy have a more direct influence on mid to long term economic health. Nothing is certain or surefire and what works once won’t always work nor will it work everywhere but they do have influences

Monetary policy shouldn’t be red or blue but they have become such; just as trade policy has, that is the perversion
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:31 pm

Thinking correlation confirms whatever your emotional bias is for causation is probably the most common mistake made in statistical analysis in our world.
Yeah, the real problem with American voters is that they are over-educated in economics.


In other words, unemployment decreased over SEVEN TIMES more than it did the previous year (even as it gets harder to decrease that number).

the S&P, for example, has more than DOUBLED what it had done the previous THREE YEARS combined.

wages grew at the fastest pace in eight years.
Annotated offers three economic indicators, and three different ways of measuring them. Why, I wonder?

Unemployment is pretty obvious. If we went back more than one year, we start to hit years where Obama looks good:

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Wage growth? Why focus on the record breaking number? Because every year after the end of the recession has been a record. The question is whether Trump’s record is better than Obama’s would have been:

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Why three years for the S&P? To capture Obama’s two worst years, and as little else as possible.


Annotated wonders what I mean by a “trend”. Since he doesn’t like the dog and pony show of stats, what I mean is that the *rate of change* in economic indicators (their derivative) in Trump’s first year are almost entirely in the same direction and magnitude of the *rate of change* in those indicators as Obama left office.

Unemployment figures (above) are the major outlier here. Unemployment was falling under Obama at a steady pace, then stopped the year before the election, and now seems to have accelerated again. If you believe that Presidential politics or policy matter the second they are elected, the change in unemployment trend supports the idea that Trump is heating up the economy.

Other indicators? Not so much. Take a look at job creation volumes. Trump’s job creation numbers fall below Obama’s post-recession average of 2229. Of course, Annotated argued that this is too far back. By his S&P measure of three years historical, Trump falls even further behind the more recent Obama average of 2559.

Image

The trend, or rate of change, is even clearer. The rate of job creation change peaked under Obama, then started to drop off. The trend shows that job creation, while still positive, is slowing. And it’s still slowing under Trump:

Image

What about wage growth? Remember how every year post 2010 was a record since 2010? Well, was Trump’s record as high as Obama’s would have been? Did Trump positively affect the rate of change in wages? No, because the rate of change is wages fell. The claim fails an obvious threshold test.

The rate of change in wage growth peaked under Obama, then started to fall. Wages were still growing, but not as fast. Under Trump, the rate of change has continued to fall:

Image

If we pretend that taking a linear measure of Obama’s latest numbers is a good way to tell whether Trump slowed or accelerated the slowing in job and wage growth (I don’t think this is a great measure, but illustrates my point), we might give Trump a little credit in job creation trends. Job creation under Trump didn’t slow AS FAST AS it was slowing under Obama. Wage trends show the opposite. The rate of change in wage growth has slowed more under Trump than it was under Obama.

The S&P also has a trend. S&P returns stagnated in Obama’s third to last year, grew a little in his second to last year, and were pretty good in his last year. The trend is that the stock market was already heating up. It continued to heat up under Trump (using a linear trend, which is I think is really dumb here, Trump way underperforms Obama’s trend, but there are good reasons to think the rate of change in S&P returns was never sustainable.

Especially is one assumes that Obama’s job in turning the economy around was as hard as Trump’s job of not fucking it up, a fully transparent view of the numbers (and TRENDS) doesn’t paint such an obviously rosy picture for Trump, although I’m perfectly happy to admit that a single year doesn’t tell us much, and if Trump maintains the current economy’s performance for his presidency, his supporters have something to talk about.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:40 pm

The problem with everyone banging on at me about how little economics can prove is that I'm not trying to prove anything.

My point is and always has been that Stew posters waste a fantastic amount of time "debating" arguments that are plainly false. Is Trump responsible for America's economic explosion in 2017? The basic, threshold hurdle to bother responding to all of Argon's 43 posts gloating about the value of the DOW today should be to ask if that even qualifies as crazy boom compared to what we were experiencing under Obama. It doesn't seem to be; unemployment was already falling, job and wage growth slowing, and the stock market heating up before Obama left office. That the stock market (for example) kept heating up rather than stayed equally hot is not great evidence of a Trump effect.

I'm not asking for the economics equivalent of the fucking Higgs boson, here.

And not to geek out too much, but even the great philosophers of hard sciences argue that hard sciences can't prove anything affirmatively, but can only falsify. The fact that social sciences are more limited in their capacity to narrow in on truth isn't a great excuse to keep rehashing easily falsifiable arguments without checking.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:26 am

Mr. Dog & Pony,

I clearly explained why I didn't take into account Obama's whole time in office.

And if you want to answer the question at hand (Is there a Trump bump?), then you have to look at where we were immediately before the election. Of course to be fair, "immediately" needs to cover at least a little bit of time. I think one year at the end of an eight-year term is fair.

I went back further than one year in some cases to show the "magnitude" of Trump's bump.

In other words, when you look at the financial markets, you can see that for the last TWO years they have ebbed and flowed, but overall they have mostly stayed the same. Trump comes along and POP!, they take off.

As I mentioned before, you can even go back THREE years in that case, and the markets under Trump DOUBLED the returns of that time frame. Would you like it better if I only took the last year and made the "magnitude" even greater?

As for jobs, I explained that as well. It is slower and harder to get unemployment down the lower it goes. Obama got it down, and it looked like it leveled off, possibly even going as low as it would go. Good job. Bully for Obama.

But then Trump comes along and POP!, the unemployment rate decreases OVER SEVEN TIMES more than it did the previous year.

thegreenlantern wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:31 pm
Trump’s first year are almost entirely in the same direction and magnitude of the *rate of change* in those indicators as Obama left office.
Same direction? Sometimes. Things were mostly holding steady in a lot of cases, not going up in the last year (or two years!).

Same magnitude? Not even close, as I've shown.

"As Obama left office," the country was more or less in a holding pattern and had been for AT LEAST a year.

Trump came along and POP!

But look, I get it. You're a libtard and Trump has triggered you. Everything that's wrong with the world is his fault, and everything that's right with the world happens in spite of him.

Argon "arguing" that Trumponomics is working is not to say that what Obama did didn't. What it does say, and what I've clearly shown, is that Trump has had a positive effect on the economy. Before Trump, it was essentially stagnant.

You and others like you can't stand that. It triggers the fuck out of you, and so you have to concoct the most elaborate, ridiculous argument ever to try to prove it false. You go back 7 and 8 years when climbing out of a deep recession to try to prove that Trump has had no effect.

Laughable.

No one is arguing that Obama didn't have good numbers. He did. But those numbers also essentially stagnated at the end.

Comparing Trump's first year numbers to the years of a climb out of deep recession says nothing about Trump's first year numbers.

The only thing it says is that The Donald has triggered you, and you can't stand it.


p.s. I voted for HIllary.

p.p.s. True story.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:36 am

Really, you need to look at percentages. For example, the Dow doubled in value in the 80’s, but it was only 1000 points.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:48 am

You can’t call it “Trumponomics” because no Trump policies have even been implemented for any length of time to impact the economy. He may have stimulated the economy by promising deregulation and tax cuts, but those things have only just taken effect.

It’s typical right wing hubris
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by jedgarandclyde » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:13 am

Deregulation in the finance industry in the US ended very badly last time it was tried under George W, the checks and balances that were in place were shown to be there for a reason.

I remember a guy saying one of the ABC's [Australia] current affair shows that what the banks in the US were doing, that in a more regulated British and Australian system would be against the law.

Like people outside of the industry on-selling loans to a bank, without any concerns at all if the loanee could meet their re-payments or if the collateral behind the loan was what it was claimed to be, it was shown after the financial crisis why US banks had so many bad loans on their books.

I only hope Trump learns from others mistakes.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Electrolyte » Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:05 am

I'm having a hard time reconciling the length and detail of the posts on this thread with the decline in unemployment.

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