Trumponomics is working

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:32 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm
"Whether you think Trumponomics is working or not depends on cognitive bias."
No that is exactly right. If you voted for Trump you think he is doing a good job and good things immediately get credited to him and bad things get blamed on his predecessor.

And if your person didn't win against Trump you fool yourself in the same way the other side does due to your own cognitive bias.
thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm
than his immediate predecessor," then the answer is "no," as demonstrated by the data I presented above.
Wrong you are making the mistake amateurs make regarding a presidents power over the stock market and economy etc.

You are kind of like a bronze age priest pointing at an eclipse and saying MY GOD is responsible for that so bow down to MY GOD the only TRUE GOD.

The fact is your God didn't have a lot to do with making a "good times" economy and/or stock market that is due to free enterprise capitalism and Adam Smith's invisible hand.

However a president and/or government can screw things up so the smart play as a government and/or president is stay out of the economy and let the invisible hand & free enterprise do its thing but take credit for the good things and blame the bad things on your predecessor.

Similar to how that bronze age priest claims natures powerful events are due to MY GOD. If they are good that is because you are listening to your priest and if they are bad it is because you are sinner against your priest and MY GOD.

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Last edited by Smoker on Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:35 am

incognita wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:11 pm
Fuck those varmints, they will never leave the party. They are the buggy makers of the 21st century and they will never change. It's a waste of time to pursue those votes.
Yes and this is a huge problem when incognita & the rest of the liberal elite partisan puppets hate working class varmints in their trailer parks and holding their minimum wage jobs more than they do a billionaire real estate shyster & reality TV show host in the white house.

If you want to deny Trump the clown boy a second term you have to decide you hate Trump as president more than you hate the working class varmints.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by incognita » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:05 pm

Oh, so we have to start being PC now?

But Trump won because so many voters stayed home. This election had the lowest voter turn out in history. Those are the people who the dems should be reaching out to, the Bernie Bros, the moderates and the progressives. The varmints in the trailer parks vote against their own interests time after time and them whine that life's not fair. But at least their guy made it OK to be racist again.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by strife » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:01 pm

Fuck the varmintry. Demographically, pandering to them is a losing proposition. Varmints are losers at life (although Scumbag rather than Loser Clique). Trump is a spastic hiccup from the US body politic that will be remembered with embarrassment.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by sodelicious » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:48 pm

The Dow sure is taking a tumble today.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by northern_goddess » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:31 pm

I bet the Toddler in Chief won’t be tweeting today to take credit for that.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:46 pm

666 point drop. It's the work of Satan, clearly.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:46 pm

northern_goddess wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:31 pm
I bet the Toddler in Chief won’t be tweeting today to take credit for that.
he doesn't have to, it's letting us know down 666 today
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:02 pm

"No that is exactly right. If you voted for Trump you think he is doing a good job and good things immediately get credited to him and bad things get blamed on his predecessor.

And if your person didn't win against Trump you fool yourself in the same way the other side does due to your own cognitive bias."
The upshot of your argument, that no one is remotely interested in or capable of evaluating Trump's policy other than through the lens of partisanship, is ridiculous. It is common and not all that hard to put together 1) an argument about what Presidents can and should do to manage the economy and 2) look for evidence about the effectiveness of economic policies across several presidencies.

Image
"Wrong you are making the mistake amateurs make regarding a presidents power over the stock market and economy etc."
Any claim regarding the President's power over the economy is testable. If a person claims "Trumponomics is working," they should be able to explain what economic variables presidential policy can affect and provide evidence that Trump's policies have made them better. My data was not provided to prove that any God has any particular power, but to test some plausible hypotheses that would be true if "Trumponomics is working". Barring a more specific theory, one might think that if "Trumponomics is working" we would see a shift in some macro-economic indicator. If Argon meant that Trumponomics was having a positive effect on something other than the stock market, employment, or wage numbers, he is welcome to come back an explain in more detail what he means.

Even your own seeming claim, that the President has no control over economic outcomes, is testable. You should be able to present evidence that federal policy changes under the President's power are not correlated with later economic indicators once the effect of non-Presidential inputs are controlled for.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Electrolyte » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:18 pm

What exactly is "Trumponomics"? Until the tax cut is was to propose laws that get shot down. Oh, there was also the repeal of environmental regulations. (Yes, I can make you richer by firing your cleaning person.) But is that really what is supposedly behind the good growth in the US, not to mention the rest of the world?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:31 pm

If you voted for Trump you think he is doing a good job and good things immediately get credited to him and bad things get blamed on his predecessor. And if your person didn't win against Trump you fool yourself in the same way the other side does due to your own cognitive bias.
In fact, even this is a theory we can test. If all Trump voters think he's doing a good job because they have cognitive biases, everyone that voted for Trump should think he's doing a good job. They should reframe his actions as good things all the time. But that's obviously not the case:

Image

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Additionally, if Trump voters blindly credit Trump for all the good and blame Obama for all the bad, they should never bother articulating when his policies deviate from what they want. They should revise what they want to meet Trump's actual policy. But they don't, Trump voters can articulate the policy they do want from him:

Image

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You could, obviously, do the same exercise with Obama voters he disappointed as President, or with any past President. This means there must be some set of facts useful to confront the biases of at least some people.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by korgy » Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:12 pm

greenlantern's back!!!

welcome back, gl -- although. as you can see, this board is pretty much in the dumps these days
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by section8 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:31 am

Have you guys seen what obama has done to the stock market?!?!!!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by vanceen » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:05 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:02 pm
"No that is exactly right. If you voted for Trump you think he is doing a good job and good things immediately get credited to him and bad things get blamed on his predecessor.

And if your person didn't win against Trump you fool yourself in the same way the other side does due to your own cognitive bias."
The upshot of your argument, that no one is remotely interested in or capable of evaluating Trump's policy other than through the lens of partisanship, is ridiculous. It is common and not all that hard to put together 1) an argument about what Presidents can and should do to manage the economy and 2) look for evidence about the effectiveness of economic policies across several presidencies.

Image
"Wrong you are making the mistake amateurs make regarding a presidents power over the stock market and economy etc."
Any claim regarding the President's power over the economy is testable. If a person claims "Trumponomics is working," they should be able to explain what economic variables presidential policy can affect and provide evidence that Trump's policies have made them better. My data was not provided to prove that any God has any particular power, but to test some plausible hypotheses that would be true if "Trumponomics is working". Barring a more specific theory, one might think that if "Trumponomics is working" we would see a shift in some macro-economic indicator. If Argon meant that Trumponomics was having a positive effect on something other than the stock market, employment, or wage numbers, he is welcome to come back an explain in more detail what he means.

Even your own seeming claim, that the President has no control over economic outcomes, is testable. You should be able to present evidence that federal policy changes under the President's power are not correlated with later economic indicators once the effect of non-Presidential inputs are controlled for.
The marvelous and beautiful scientific method (nice diagram, btw) requires a certain amount of control over the variables of a system in order to draw conclusions from experiment or observations. To draw solid conclusions about any President's success in improving the economy would require being able to separate the things that the President can influence (government fiscal policy to some extent, government monetary policy to a lesser extent) from things the President doesn't influence much (if at all), e.g. demographic trends, shortages and surpluses of commodities, the competitiveness of other countries, technological breakthroughs, etc. I think Smoker's point is that compared to these kinds of variables, tax rates and Fed rates are pretty small in their influence.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:31 pm

incognita wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:05 pm
This election had the lowest voter turn out in history.
That's a lie.
Voter turnout in 2016 was the second-highest in the past half-century
http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch ... opped-2012
Why do you lie?
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:55 pm

It is a fairly consistent fact over many administrations that the stock market does well under Democrats and the bond market does well under Republicans. I don't know what conclusions can fairly be drawn from that, but the data alone are interesting.

This may be less true recently than it was when Republicans actually cared about deficits.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:02 pm

Can't find anything on the bond market without searching for more than a minute. Here are stocks:

Image

I would like to see charts that attributed the first year of a president's term to the previous president (who I think has more influence in that period than the incumbent). I think the Democrats might do even more than 75% better per year than the Republicans.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by jedgarandclyde » Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:23 am

Some pundits think there may be a bloodbath soon for investors in Bitcoin, if it happens, will be because of President Trump?

Or that nasty Hillary?

Or the terrible Obama?

Or that communist JFK?

Or that Jap lover FDR?
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Sun Feb 04, 2018 6:41 am

The marvelous and beautiful scientific method (nice diagram, btw) requires a certain amount of control over the variables of a system in order to draw conclusions from experiment or observations. To draw solid conclusions about any President's success in improving the economy would require being able to separate the things that the President can influence (government fiscal policy to some extent, government monetary policy to a lesser extent) from things the President doesn't influence much (if at all), e.g. demographic trends, shortages and surpluses of commodities, the competitiveness of other countries, technological breakthroughs, etc.
Sure. You'd need to be able to provide statistical controls for a number of alternative independent variables, and a measure of a dependent variable that was linked to the IVs under Presidential control that could be precisely measured. But that burden is on the claimant. If Po thinks Trumponomics is working, we should be able to find some evidence supporting the claim. (And thanks, I got the diagram from The Internet.)

But we can do this. In fact, economists make some pretty specific claims to be able to measure contingent and interaction effects of specific federal policies:
...the effects of foreign demand shocks on the home country are greatly amplified if the home economy is constrained by the zero lower bound for policy interest rates. This result applies even to countries that are relatively closed to trade such as the United States. The duration of the liquidity trap is determined endogenously. Adverse foreign shocks can extend the duration of the liquidity trap, implying more contractionary effects for the home country; conversely, large positive shocks can prompt an early exit, implying effects that are closer to those when the zero bound constraint is not binding.
Bodenstein, M., Erceg, C. J., & Guerrieri, L. (2017). The effects of foreign shocks when interest rates are at zero. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 50(3), 660-684.

Tests of these claims are not always perfect, and obviously lack a lot of the control you get in experimental settings, but enough clever people have measured enough clever hypotheses enough ways in full view of their peers that economists probably get to say that they know a little more than you're giving them credit for.

In light of this, it's pretty shit posting for Argon or Smoker throw their hands in the air and claim that the social world is too complicated to test like it's a lab. That's a defensible position, but then it's a little mystifying that they post half a dozen times a day to a website that's supposed to be about debating politics.

If you don't want to discuss evidence of political theories, what's the point in being here? Posters like Argon make vague claims they can't defend, then switch the goalposts all day whenever anyone makes a good-faith effort to interpret their theories and provide some evidence to evaluate them.

Maybe one of the reasons this board has been dying a slow death for a decade is the willingness to replace evidence with snark, and to go all post-modern, "it's all perception" whenever someone demands or provides it.
I think Smoker's point is that compared to these kinds of variables, tax rates and Fed rates are pretty small in their influence.
I don't agree with your summary of Smoker's argument, but this is an empirical claim, as well. In order to provide evidence for this claim, Smoker would have to find a test like you describe above and demonstrate that the marginal effect of changes in presidential policies on central macro-economic indicators is small compared to those of other theorized causes. (Most analysis of federal economic policy disagrees; lots of studies demonstrate that in most economic circumstances, federal policy has important short- and long-term influence on the macro-economic indicators that Argon's loose claim seems to imply).

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by andybox » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:13 am

Welcome back Green Lantern.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Chi_Rup » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:20 am

Yep, this GreenLantern is empirically awesome.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by incognita » Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:09 pm

My mistake. Still, Trump was elected by approx. 1/4 of the voting population.

And swoon. Welcome back GL.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by strife » Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:30 pm

I'm glad I don't have to go to Battlestations against GL.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:40 pm

Correction.
I would like to see charts that attributed the first year of a president's term to the previous president (who I think has more influence in that period than the incumbent). I think the Democrats might do even more than 75% better per year than the Republicans.
The annual increase was 133% better under Democrats than Republicans (7% compared to 3%). I misremembered the Republican increase as 4% and didn't bother to check even with the chart right in front of me. It wouldn't surprise me if it were 8% compared to 2.5% if you did my reattribution of the first year to the previous president.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by jedgarandclyde » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:36 pm

Does Trump get credit for this if it happens?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-04/w ... on/9387374

If the Bitcoin causes a bloodbath on the stock market. i do wonder will he get credit for that also?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Wellpisser » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:02 pm


Any claim regarding the President's power over the economy is testable. If a person claims "Trumponomics is working," they should be able to explain what economic variables presidential policy can affect and provide evidence that Trump's policies have made them better.
Not at all-in the words of Ludwig Erhard enocomics is 60% sentiment, the very act of Trump not being Obama is enough to unleash Keynesian animal forces from those who distrusted Obamas handling of the economy. (I think that Erhard was light on at 60% but these were pre-Kahnemann times)

The legislative stasis is actually good for the economy in the short term as businesses thrive on stability and certainty-it is notablke that for 50 years after WW2 Italy had a new Government nearly every year (often 2 in 1 year) with no Government able to implement serious policies to reform Italy's enocomy and Italy enjoyed significant enocomic expansion-once it had Governments lasting more than a few years things started to sour and its GDP is now lower than it was in 2000, quite an achievement. The very act of there not being a Government to regularly interfere allowed Italian busineeses to succeed.

There is no data that Trumponomics is succeeding or failing, it has only been a year but there is every bit of evidence that Trumps promises on taxation have thrilled the US business and investment community and that this is feeding through from Wall St to Main St. Personally I think that it is all a bit premature and that it is doomed to failure but then again I'm not much of a success so my opinion doesn't amount to much.
Even your own seeming claim, that the President has no control over economic outcomes, is testable. You should be able to present evidence that federal policy changes under the President's power are not correlated with later economic indicators once the effect of non-Presidential inputs are controlled for.
Of course a President can have some control over enocomic outcomes in the broadest sense as Roosevelt, Reagan and Obama demonstrated.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Wellpisser » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:34 pm

strife wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:30 pm
I'm glad I don't have to go to Battlestations against GL.
Why-any economist trying to stay objective could rip it apart in about 15 seconds, he essentially tried to compare a physical science with a social science. There is a reason that they are considered different.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:39 am

vanceen wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 9:05 pm
To draw solid conclusions about any President's success in improving the economy would require being able to separate the things that the President can influence (government fiscal policy to some extent, government monetary policy to a lesser extent) from things the President doesn't influence much (if at all), e.g. demographic trends, shortages and surpluses of commodities, the competitiveness of other countries, technological breakthroughs, etc. I think Smoker's point is that compared to these kinds of variables, tax rates and Fed rates are pretty small in their influence.
Pretty good summation.

Probably the single most important economic driver is something no one including US presidents have control over which is above "technological breakthroughs".

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:47 am

Not at all-in the words of Ludwig Erhard enocomics is 60% sentiment, the very act of Trump not being Obama is enough to unleash Keynesian animal forces from those who distrusted Obamas handling of the economy. (I think that Erhard was light on at 60% but these were pre-Kahnemann times)
The "animal spirits" argument is plainly testable by the same logic. If "Trumponimics works" simply means "the people trust Trump more," we should still be able to observe changes in some economic indicators that demonstrate the effect of some actors in the economy trusting Trump more. By "specificity," I didn't mean that the theory needed to link a policy to an outcome, necessarily, but rather that some independent variable's relationship to an observable change is described.


Why-any economist trying to stay objective could rip it apart in about 15 seconds, he essentially tried to compare a physical science with a social science. There is a reason that they are considered different.
I'm shocked to read this for a couple of reasons. First, I argued myself that the specifics of natural and social science methods are quite different, even of the goal of deriving hypotheses from theories and testing them is the same:
Tests of these claims are not always perfect, and obviously lack a lot of the control you get in experimental settings, but enough clever people have measured enough clever hypotheses enough ways in full view of their peers that economists probably get to say that they know a little more than you're giving them credit for.
Given that, the causal identification fetish has existed in economics for twenty years. Every graduate-level methods book, and almost every peer reviewed article on econometric methodology, is written from the perspective that economics and political science (as practiced in the US) are tasked with theory-testing through hypotheses. There are entire journals dedicated to measurement and testing models that rely on the shared belief among academic economists, at least, that tests of theory-derived hypotheses provide confirming or disconfirming evidence of those theories. If the purpose of econometric methods isn't causal identification for the purpose of testing hypotheses, what is it?

Further, 90% of what gets published in AER or APSR test hypotheses linking independent variables to dependent variables, and employing controls as a way to estimate the effects of the chosen IV. I could link dozens of examples of methods texts that teach students of economics to test hypotheses using a scientific method adapted for social science, and hundreds or thousands that claim to use these methods to provide evidence about economic theory.

In the six or so years since I posted here frequently, I changed careers and now teach university courses in both undergraduate social science and at our graduate policy school. I must watch my economist colleagues give six or eight presentations on new research a month, and they all use the language of the scientific method. I can't imagine a single one of them disagreeing that hypothesis testing is a central aim of academic economics.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:01 am

Probably the single most important economic driver is something no one including US presidents have control over which is above "technological breakthroughs".
1) Federal policy on research granting and regulation, university funding, and patent law might count as policy areas that establish some control over technological breakthroughs. It should be possible to test this theory by checking whether federal policy changes in these areas have an effect on R&D output.

2) We can also attempt to measure R&D output in a number of ways, or use statistical tools to chunk runs of years together. Where a number of papers looking at the effects of the same policy all confirm that the policy has an effect despite controls for technological growth, we might start to agree that the policy has a verifiable effect.

3) If you really think we can't prove anything about the political world, why do you bother posting on a politics board? Doesn't it get boring or discouraging to think that you waste half an hour a day disagreeing with people whose cognitive biases will never match yours?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:03 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:02 pm

It is common and not all that hard to put together 1) an argument about what Presidents can and should do to manage the economy and 2) look for evidence about the effectiveness of economic policies across several presidencies. Even your own seeming claim, that the President has no control over economic outcomes, is testable. You should be able to present evidence that federal policy changes under the President's power are not correlated with later economic indicators once the effect of non-Presidential inputs are controlled for.
You make the same mistake all economists do when they try to pretend economics is a hard science rather than an wishy washy social science which is confuse correlation with causation.

However that said thank Allah for cognitive bias since a big chunk of my trading methodology consists of being a physicist in a market filled with economists.

Probably the most consistent and persistent "trading edge" in the markets is fading economists emotionally tied to the "predictions" of their "school of economics".

Warmest Regards, Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:11 am

Smoker wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:03 am
thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:02 pm

It is common and not all that hard to put together 1) an argument about what Presidents can and should do to manage the economy and 2) look for evidence about the effectiveness of economic policies across several presidencies. Even your own seeming claim, that the President has no control over economic outcomes, is testable. You should be able to present evidence that federal policy changes under the President's power are not correlated with later economic indicators once the effect of non-Presidential inputs are controlled for.
You make the same mistake all economists do when they try to pretend economics is a hard science rather than an wishy washy social science which is confuse correlation with causation.

However that said thank Allah for cognitive bias since a big chunk of my trading methodology consists of being a physicist in a market filled with economists.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
I do understand the difference between a hard science and a social science. I simply disagree that the difference renders the social world completely unknowable. Typically when I run across someone who harps over and over again, without any specific argument, that hard and social sciences are different, I find that they are doing so because they don't understand social scientific methods or claims very well, but whatever.

If it's cognitive bias all the way down, why post on a politics board? Wouldn't almost anything be a better use of your time?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:42 am

I think WP's posts nicely illustrate the thing that's so maddening about this site:
There is no data that Trumponomics is succeeding or failing, it has only been a year but there is every bit of evidence that Trumps promises on taxation have thrilled the US business and investment community and that this is feeding through from Wall St to Main St.
WP plainly has a theory that an independent variable (promises of certain tax policies) has an effect on a dependent variable (business and investment attitudes), and even claims to see evidence (hypothetical observations the theory predicts) that the theory is true.

He uses a lazy version of the scientific method to justify his argument about Trump's short-run effect on business climate, then in the next post:
any economist trying to stay objective could rip it apart in about 15 seconds, he essentially tried to compare a physical science with a social science. There is a reason that they are considered different.
...claims that his own method of argument is improper.

It's political stew in a nutshell. Half the posts make some claim of a relationship between phenomena in the political world. But the second you try to break down exactly what causes and effects people are talking about, or try to lay out arguments about what evidence is and is not relevant, they treat an investigation of causation like it's witchcraft.

It's not that these people really disbelieve that a scientific method can be tailored for the social world, it's that their defense mechanism for getting called on a shitty version of it is to claim that all versions are equally shitty. They chide people who make more precise claims for not being precise enough, then go back to debating the vaguest thing possible.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:51 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:47 am
I must watch my economist colleagues give six or eight presentations on new research a month, and they all use the language of the scientific method.
It is easy to use the language of the scientific method; what is difficult is applying the scientific method to a wishy washy social science like economics. If it was easy there would be a lot more economists that were also successful proprietary traders.

BTW if your "economist colleagues" giving these brilliant presentations to you on their "so called research" actually discovered anything persistent and effective they would be proprietary trading with it rather than showing you pretty power point slides.

One of a main reasons economists lose so much money "when they try to show they are right" is they have a tendency to fall in love with their "predictions" and when it all goes south then hang on to the bitter end because my "economic beliefs" are right and it is the market that is wrong.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:56 am

Why would they want to do “proprietary trading” when they can teach at a university?
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:14 am

BTW if your "economist colleagues" giving these brilliant presentations to you on their "so called research" actually discovered anything persistent and effective they would be proprietary trading with it rather than showing you pretty power point slides.
Says the guy who spends an hour a day posting his "wisdom" here completely for free. Apparently, the failings of social science aren't quite as deep as the failings of yelling about cognitive bias on the internet.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:45 am

thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:14 am
BTW if your "economist colleagues" giving these brilliant presentations to you on their "so called research" actually discovered anything persistent and effective they would be proprietary trading with it rather than showing you pretty power point slides.
Says the guy who spends an hour a day posting his "wisdom" here completely for free. Apparently, the failings of social science aren't quite as deep as the failings of yelling about cognitive bias on the internet.
Ok sorry about your hurt feelings but the truth is the truth and that is why hard Science wins and not Social Science.

For an economist putting their money where their mouth is regarding their particular "school of economics" prediction of whatever is like what physics did with the large hadron collider confirming the "higgs boson" of the "standard model of particle physics".

The markets show an economist if they are right or wrong but they don't give you points or tenure for a pretty power point presentation.

And once again I am sorry your person lost to a reality TV show host.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by vanceen » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:09 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:02 pm


Any claim regarding the President's power over the economy is testable. ...
Here's where we fundamentally disagree. Not all hypotheses are practically falsifiable. The factors affecting economic changes are so varied and often so poorly understood, and so many things are covariant, that it is very difficult to control for all the independent variables. Economics has a dismal record with regard to prediction.

A good case in point is the 1970's inflation. It was widely assumed at the time that the underlying problem was high demand and high money supply, so interest rates were cranked up to bring these under control. This had worked in previous inflationary times, so it must work now, right? But very late in the day it was realized that the 1970's inflation was due to supply shortages , e.g. the oil shocks and bad agricultural harvests. So the cure made matters worse and produced "stagflation". No one was even looking at the main factor at the time.

I did not say that Presidents can have no influence on the economy. Of course they can. But I think it's very bold to claim that they can control or take credit for a good outcome, especially in the short term.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by vanceen » Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:14 pm

VinnyD wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:40 pm
Correction.
I would like to see charts that attributed the first year of a president's term to the previous president (who I think has more influence in that period than the incumbent). I think the Democrats might do even more than 75% better per year than the Republicans.
The annual increase was 133% better under Democrats than Republicans (7% compared to 3%). I misremembered the Republican increase as 4% and didn't bother to check even with the chart right in front of me. It wouldn't surprise me if it were 8% compared to 2.5% if you did my reattribution of the first year to the previous president.
To attach any significance to that difference in averages, you would need to calculate the standard deviation for the whole body of data and compare that to the differences between the means using a F test or s test. I'm away from my home computer at the moment, but I may do that later.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:36 pm

Here's where we fundamentally disagree. Not all hypotheses are practically falsifiable. The factors affecting economic changes are so varied and often so poorly understood, and so many things are covariant, that it is very difficult to control for all the independent variables. Economics has a dismal record with regard to prediction.
I'm plainly a little more optimistic than you, but I completely agree with this in principal.

Look, I'm not suggesting that the stew should become some econometrics work-house that revolutionizes social science. I just find it a little mystifying that Argon can shit-post the DOW index four times a week as a validation of every conservative impulse, but the "economics can't make casual claims" argument only emerges when someone checks the plausibility of his argument with anything approaching transparent evidence. The shit-posters fall back on these arguments about what social science can't do as proof that every Brietbart commenter has an opinion as valid as Thomas Sargent.

Debate here and debate among professional social scientists doesn't get better by helplessly assuming that we're never going to control for everything. It gets better when we talk through clever attempts to draw inference on competing theories from evidence that does appear relevant. Your promise to f-test Vinny's stats are maybe over the top geeky to most, but it's the type of thing that might convince me (and maybe therefore some others) to come back more often.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:41 pm

just find it a little mystifying that Argon can shit-post the DOW index four times a week as a validation of every conservative impulse, but the "economics can't make casual claims" argument only emerges when someone checks the plausibility of his argument with anything approaching transparent evidence.
It's the anti-anti Trump passive aggressiveness at play there. While a few are stupidly and lazily pro Trump, most choose instead to attack those who go after ridiculous pro-Trump claims like he had anything to do with the stock market.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:42 pm

Fuck me, this thread is ridiculous.

Libtards are still trying to claim that the stock market hasn't shot up since Trump was elected?

In a little more than one year (since Trump's election - not just his inauguration, because that's when it really started ), the S&P, for example, has more than DOUBLED what it had done the previous THREE YEARS combined.

How is more than doubling in one year what it previously took three years to achieve not a vast improvement?

I know you libtards love to read fake news. And that's fine. But you shouldn't actually believe it.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:07 pm

Of course, Anno sidesteps the issue discussed because it is beyond him.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:37 pm

As an example, consider work the connection between diversity and public goods provision. In the 1990s and 2000s, at least a dozen papers in top econ or polisci journals have tested theoretical mechanisms suggesting that diversity would reduce the amount of public goods provided by the state. The papers generated a number of different ways to measure social and economic diversity (like ELF, gini-based measures, and measures of inequality between groups; one paper even looked at age diversity at the American county level) and a number of ways to measure service provision (GDP growth, surveys that measure service completion, satellite pictures of lights at night), and employed a diverse variety of controls.

Basically every cross-national paper found the same thing: diversity and service provision were negatively correlated. But some people got suspicious. All the regressions were cross national, and the tests were unable to falsify a number more specific theories. Gibson and Hoffman decided to test the theory using local data from Zambia, and found a positive correlation between diversity and services, even controlling for some obvious confounds like population density. A bunch of new papers established that autocratic countries were responsible for most of the negative correlation. Regression of democracies produce positive correlations between diversity and services; regression of autocracies produce negative correlations. The evidence holds in studies within a number countries. Results from Bolivia, Botswana, Vietnam, and a number of other countries show that there is a diversity dividend in democracies and a diversity deficit in autocracies.

A new generation of studies is taking advantage of variation in the rules of municipal governments within democracies like Bolivia and South Africa. If different rules of vote aggregation correlate to different regression coefficients between services and diversity, it will yield new insights on potential institutional fixes to mitigate the damage caused by diversity elsewhere.

This literature is obviously not perfect and no one really argues that it has nailed causation in any precise way. But a number of theories about diversity and public goods have been conclusively falsified in the minds of everyone that contributes to the literature, and the new questions seem to be progressively narrowing the mechanisms that seem plausible. The robustness of the findings and the narrowing of the plausible questions strike me as obvious progress.

Some cross-national papers

Ajilore, O. & Smith, J. (2011). Ethnic Fragmentation and Police Spending. Applied Economics Letters, 18(4): 329–32.

Alesina, A., Baqir, R., & Easterly, W. (1997). Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions. NBER Working Paper #6009.

Alesina, A., Michalopoulos, S., & Papaioannou, E. (2015). Ethnic inequality. Journal of Political Economy, 123(3), 547-724.

Baldwin, K., & Huber, J. (2010). Economic Versus Cultural Differences: Forms of Ethnic Diversity and Public Goods Provision. American Political Science Review, 104(04): 644–62.

Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997). Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(4): 1203–50.

Poterba, J. (1997). Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 16(1): 48–66.


Some within-country papers

Gibson, C., & Hoffman, B. 2013. Coalitions Not Conflicts: Ethnicity, Political Institutions, and Expenditure in Africa. Comparative Politics, 45(3): 273–90.


Gibson, C., Ferree, K., & Hoffman, B. (2016). Social Diversity Meets Electoral Institutions in Africa: Testing the Interactive Hypothesis at the Subnational Level in South Africa and Ghana. Working Paper.

Gisselquist, R., Leiderer, S., & Niño-Zarazúa, R. (2016). “Ethnic Heterogeneity and Public Goods Provision in Zambia: Evidence of a Subnational ‘Diversity Dividend’.” World Development, 78: 308–23.


Gisselquist, R. (2013). Ethnic Divisions and Public Goods Provision, Revisited.” Ethnic and Racial Studies, 37(9): 1605–27.

Habyarimana, J., Humphreys, M., Posner, D., & Weinstein, J. (2007). Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision? American Political Science Review, 101(4): 709–25.

Huber, J. (2012). Measuring Ethnic Voting: Do Proportional Electoral Laws Politicize Ethnicity? American Journal of Political Science, 56(4): 986–1001.

Khwaja, A. I. (2009). Can Good Projects Succeed in Bad Communities? Journal of Public Economics, 93(7-8): 899– 916.

Miguel, E., & Gugerty, M. (2005). Ethnic Diversity, Social Sanctions, and Public Goods in Kenya. Journal of Public Economics, 89(11-12): 2325–68.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:41 pm

" the S&P, for example, has more than DOUBLED what it had done the previous THREE YEARS combined."

I literally provided a historical S&P graph in my first post. We're obviously aware.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by shunter » Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:58 pm

Smoker wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:32 am
thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm
"Whether you think Trumponomics is working or not depends on cognitive bias."
No that is exactly right. If you voted for Trump you think he is doing a good job and good things immediately get credited to him and bad things get blamed on his predecessor.

And if your person didn't win against Trump you fool yourself in the same way the other side does due to your own cognitive bias.
thegreenlantern wrote:
Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm
than his immediate predecessor," then the answer is "no," as demonstrated by the data I presented above.
Wrong you are making the mistake amateurs make regarding a presidents power over the stock market and economy etc.

You are kind of like a bronze age priest pointing at an eclipse and saying MY GOD is responsible for that so bow down to MY GOD the only TRUE GOD.

The fact is your God didn't have a lot to do with making a "good times" economy and/or stock market that is due to free enterprise capitalism and Adam Smith's invisible hand.

However a president and/or government can screw things up so the smart play as a government and/or president is stay out of the economy and let the invisible hand & free enterprise do its thing but take credit for the good things and blame the bad things on your predecessor.

Similar to how that bronze age priest claims natures powerful events are due to MY GOD. If they are good that is because you are listening to your priest and if they are bad it is because you are sinner against your priest and MY GOD.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Complete twaddle; you have a child’s understanding of economics. The world economy would have collapsed if it weren’t for intervention after GFC

I do however like the way you start with “no, that’s right” - a nice illustration of your general confusion
1988: "We have a climate in Britain in which business wants to succeed and can succeed." Margaret Thatcher, speech to launch the European Single Market

2018: "Fuck business." Boris Johnson

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:22 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:41 pm
" the S&P, for example, has more than DOUBLED what it had done the previous THREE YEARS combined."

I literally provided a historical S&P graph in my first post. We're obviously aware.
Yes, you did. But you argued that it was "on trend from the Obama years."

If doubling the previous 3-year performance in one year is "on trend," then I'd love to see what isn't "on trend."

"Going up" and "going through the fucking roof" are slightly different things.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:35 pm

Annotated wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:22 pm
thegreenlantern wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:41 pm
" the S&P, for example, has more than DOUBLED what it had done the previous THREE YEARS combined."

I literally provided a historical S&P graph in my first post. We're obviously aware.
Yes, you did. But you argued that it was "on trend from the Obama years."

If doubling the previous 3-year performance in one year is "on trend," then I'd love to see what isn't "on trend."

"Going up" and "going through the fucking roof" are slightly different things.
1) The average S&P annual return under Obama was 16.5% (235% over his term), compared to Trump's 21% this past year. The uptick you're describing started before the election, and there are Obama years around 21%. If Trump faces the same variation during his presidency as Obama did, his S&P performance will be pretty similar to Obama's. It's a big "if," but one that could frankly go either way (the DOW is down 1000 points over the last two days). It's totally reasonable to look for deeper evidence that any expectation about Trump or his actual policies are responsible for the past year's rally, even if it's unlikely that the evidence appear in the near future. It is completely plausible to argue that the Trump rally depends in large part on fundamentals Obama is responsible for.

2) The OP claims that "Trumponomics is working." Cool to choose the single indicator best suited to claim Trump is doing well, but "the economy" is a bit wider claim than "one stock index". DOW returns, unemployment, and wages are even closer to Obama's trend.

I really don't think Trump supporters would face such skepticism from liberals if instead of saying "Trump rulez!" and pointing to a cherry-picked stock result, they said "anticipation of Trump's deregulation and tax cuts generated a short-run increase in stock markets that were already doing quite well".

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by polardude1 » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:36 pm

If doubling the previous 3-year performance in one year is "on trend," then I'd love to see what isn't "on trend."
it's called an over inflated market that does not reflect economic conditions. If you haven't noticed, the DOQW has lost over 1000 points in the past week. That's called a correction
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by sodelicious » Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:40 pm

The Dow is taking another tumble today.
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