Trumponomics is working

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Argonheart_Po
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Trumponomics is working

Post by Argonheart_Po » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:07 pm

As Donald Trump makes his State of the Union address this evening his many opponents have an increasingly large problem: the US economy.

Whatever else you might say about the President it is becoming impossible to deny that the economy has done extremely well in the year since he became president. Growth accelerated from 1.5 per cent in 2016 to 2.3 per cent in 2017. Most forecasts for 2018 – for what they are worth – see it leaping to around 3 per cent. This is the sort of growth the developed world had become used to prior to the 2008/09 crisis, but which had eluded it in the decade since. As for the stock market, the Dow Jones is up over 30 per cent

It is possible to argue that Trumponomics is favouring the already-wealthy more than it favours the poor – although the same could be said of the US economy ever since the US had an economy. It is not possible to argue, as many did after his election, that Trump would trash the economy. It is plain that he hasn’t. You can try to argue that the strong US economic performance would have happened anyway, and has little to do with Trump’s policies, but it is going to be somewhat unconvincing if you previously make it clear that you were going to blame the President for any downturn.

That is the position in which hapless Paul Krugman finds himself. Krugman has a Nobel Prize in economics to his name, but he would be better rewarded with the prize for hubris. In the hours after Trump’s election in November 2016, as world markets did see a brief plunge, he commented in the New York Times: ‘If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.’ He added: ‘Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.’

The first pass answer as to when markets would recover, as it turned out, was a few hours after Krugman wrote these words, very soon after Wall Street opened. Still, Krugman hasn’t given up his attack on Trump’s economic policies. In December 2017 he tried to claim in an interview that US markets were simply echoing global ones, and Trump could take no credit from it. So his position was this: if markets fell it would have been Trump’s fault. Instead, they rose, but the President has nothing to do with it.

This is the whole basis of the Trump phenomenon: while people can see that Trump is a complete arse, he has the remarkable ability to taunt his opponents into making even bigger arses of themselves. If Krugman or anyone else really thinks that cutting corporation tax from 35 per cent to 21 per cent isn’t going to boost stock prices they have a very poor understanding of investors’ reasoning. It really is very simple: lower taxes make for greater profits.

What lower tax rates will do for tax revenue and the US deficit won’t become clear for some time. The British experience, though, provides an encouraging sign: George Osborne’s cuts to corporation tax have increased tax take. It may be that the victims of Trump’s tax cuts turn out to be tax havens, in whose jurisdictions corporations now have less incentive to base their activities. That might end up going down rather well with liberal-thinking people.

Of course it is possible that the stock market has over-reacted to the tax cuts and faces a correction. If it does, some shine will come off Donald Trump’s economic record, although it needn’t affect economic growth. For now, and for as long into the future as anyone can tell, the strong US economy is going to make it difficult for Trump’s opponents to wound him. On the basis of Bill Clinton’s motto – it’s the economy, stupid – we may well be heading for a Trump second term.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/01/t ... s-working/

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:22 pm

“Trumponomics is working, but I can’t argue that it is other than posting someone else’s words. Ask me and I’ll change the subject.”

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:39 pm

working for whom?

It’s no surprise that with the promise and the delivery of a massive corporate tax cut that the stock market is doing well and growth has picked up due to reinvestment of much of those tax cuts. It was predictable and the rally helped push through the tax cut.

But that deficit, the restructuring of the balance sheets, shit is going to hurt when it comes due

Personally, I don’t like the structure and that massive amount of new debt we taken on and given to corporations in a communist style wealth redistribution scheme while weakening the fundamentals. It seems like a bridge ready to be set on fire. I’ve yet to see a tax cut on this scale ever pay off the way they were promised. I predict this will be the great looting and leave the varmints and middle class worse off in the coming years

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by 5waldos » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:55 pm

Actually for many of the economic figures he is actually doing worse than Obama. For example, number of jobs created were higher with Obama. But those are actual facts so let's not worry about them.

However I will admit (grudgingly I suppose) that yes, I did worry that the economy and the stock market would tank if Trump was elected. I wasn't thinking straight- I forgot that Trump would get rid of all those annoying rules and regulations that had been put in place to protect consumers. And that tax cuts would favor businesses. In retrospect, I (and others like me) should have been smarter in my thinking.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:58 pm

2.3% is higher than the rate of growth the previous year, but lower than the rate of growth in each of the two years before that.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:06 pm

VinnyD wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:58 pm
2.3% is higher than the rate of growth the previous year, but lower than the rate of growth in each of the two years before that.
Could it be a cycle that has little to do with the president?

Note he promised 4% growth and 25 million new jobs on the campaign trail.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:10 pm

Not surprinsingly, the blogger doesn't say that Krugman apologized the next day for his first assessment of Trumpiedoodle. I guess they don't proof blogs at the spectator, whatever that is.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by VinnyD » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:10 pm

I think the president does have some influence on the economy, but not a measurable amount in the first twelve to eighteen months.

The Obama stimulus package is one example that comes to mind. Britain met the GEC with austerity and fared much worse than we did.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:13 pm

You snowflakes need to make up your mind. Was Obama better, or does the president have nothing to do with the economy?

LOL!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:15 pm

eric84 wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:10 pm
Not surprinsingly, the blogger doesn't say that Krugman apologized the next day for his first assessment of Trumpiedoodle. I guess they don't proof blogs at the spectator, whatever that is.
Apologized?

I don't know if he "apologized."

What he did do was take it back ... as the stock market already started to soar at that point. LOL!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:18 pm

It's a classic Trumpiedoodle 'achievement' in that's really just an attack on someone else without any real facts. I'm sure Anno and Argie will now debate this point very directly!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:23 pm

Facts? I gave you facts.

He retracted when he saw how badly he was already wrong just hours after his great pronouncement.

How embarrassing is that? ... Nobel Prize winner. LOL!
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:30 pm

Yet, his low approval rating is staggering, and people actually have existential fears for the future of the nation.

It’s unprecedented.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:31 pm

Right, this article is about Krugman not Trumponomics.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by 5waldos » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:40 pm

And if you look at the stock market over the past couple of years it has a pretty solid upward march- no big jumps for Trump. It just continues on.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Annotated » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:48 pm

5waldos wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:40 pm
no big jumps for Trump
Would you like to take that back?

I'll give you 5 minutes.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:57 pm

VinnyD wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:10 pm
I think the president does have some influence on the economy, but not a measurable amount in the first twelve to eighteen months.

The Obama stimulus package is one example that comes to mind. Britain met the GEC with austerity and fared much worse than we did.
I agree with that I also expect cycles
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by northern_goddess » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:06 pm

How many times are you going to do this, Po?

http://www.politicalstew.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=179977
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Argonheart_Po » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:11 am

Responses here. Like little boys, whistling in the dark, to keep your spririts up.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BeatRaven » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:17 am

They taught me in Eco class that you pay down debt in the up cycle and run deficits in the down cycle; that you fix the roof while the sun is shining.

Trump is doing the opposite. Has Trump trumped Keynes?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:43 am

Shrub didn’t so why would trumpiedoodle?
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BeatRaven » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:45 am

Shrub had interest rates that could be lowered.

Next down cycle (and it's a very old recovery), we're outa bullets.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:51 am

Trump is there to hand over money to the very wealthy and that's it. It's pure corporate kleptocracy.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by korgy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:08 am

5waldos wrote:
Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:40 pm
And if you look at the stock market over the past couple of years it has a pretty solid upward march- no big jumps for Trump. It just continues on.
past couple of years? it has been rising steadily since 2009.
"the rise of Kim Crow"

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:09 am

Interest rates were already near zero in 2008. Thank Greenspan for that.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BeatRaven » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:11 am

Yeah, true, whatever.

But as Elmer Fudd used to say, no more bu-wits.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:21 am

Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:11 am
Responses here. Like little boys, whistling in the dark, to keep your spririts up.
As opposed to cutting and pasting something about a topic you know nothing about.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BulletPark » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:45 am

Ooooooooooooooooooooooh, it's The Spectator...

Say no more.

The only magazine to get America wronger than the average Australian journalist.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Argonheart_Po » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:52 am

Citizen Baba wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:21 am
Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:11 am
Responses here. Like little boys, whistling in the dark, to keep your spririts up.
As opposed to cutting and pasting something about a topic you know nothing about.
I’m inside you like a Guinea worm. How does it feel?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Argonheart_Po » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:53 am

BulletPark wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:45 am
Ooooooooooooooooooooooh, it's The Spectator...

Say no more.

The only magazine to get America wronger than the average Australian journalist.
Trumponomics isn’t working?

What makes you say that? Or you don’t know. You just said it. And you don’t know why.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:54 am

Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:52 am
Citizen Baba wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:21 am
Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:11 am
Responses here. Like little boys, whistling in the dark, to keep your spririts up.
As opposed to cutting and pasting something about a topic you know nothing about.
I’m inside you like a Guinea worm. How does it feel?
“Trumponomics is working, but I can’t argue that it is other than posting someone else’s words. Ask me and I’ll change the subject.”

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BulletPark » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:05 am

Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:53 am
BulletPark wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:45 am
Ooooooooooooooooooooooh, it's The Spectator...

Say no more.

The only magazine to get America wronger than the average Australian journalist.
Trumponomics isn’t working?

What makes you say that? Or you don’t know. You just said it. And you don’t know why.
Because unless you are enough of a dumb twat (and really, you are) to think the stock market is the economy, things are more complex than what is being presented in this article that was published on a blog associated with people so clueless about America they probably think we shit on the other side of the toilet seat.

I live here.

You live in Wooloomooloomooloomooloomooloo.

I have a sizable interest in the US stock market. What my advisors are telling me is to prepare for a slowdown.

You don't.

I have worked with real estate professionals for the past five years int he luxury NYC market

You haven't.

I know what I'm talking about.

You have no fucking idea.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Godjira » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:38 am

Now, you know that working class folks in the Rust Belt will be averaging down on their blue chip stocks when a correction comes along.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Argonheart_Po » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:59 am

BulletPark wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:05 am
Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:53 am
BulletPark wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:45 am
Ooooooooooooooooooooooh, it's The Spectator...

Say no more.

The only magazine to get America wronger than the average Australian journalist.
Trumponomics isn’t working?

What makes you say that? Or you don’t know. You just said it. And you don’t know why.
Because unless you are enough of a dumb twat (and really, you are) to think the stock market is the economy, things are more complex than what is being presented in this article that was published on a blog associated with people so clueless about America they probably think we shit on the other side of the toilet seat.

I live here.

You live in Wooloomooloomooloomooloomooloo.

I have a sizable interest in the US stock market. What my advisors are telling me is to prepare for a slowdown.

You don't.

I have worked with real estate professionals for the past five years int he luxury NYC market

You haven't.

I know what I'm talking about.

You have no fucking idea.
Tell us about your friends in the “luxury NYC market”. What do they have to say?

How are you preparing for the “slowdown”. When. trump was elected what did your “advisors” tell you to do?

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:39 am

“Trump hasn’t been a disaster." "Krugman got it wrong." Who cares? Americans can’t pay the mortgage with Krugman Was Wrong Dollars, after all. Negative partisanship may be tasty, but it doesn’t pay the bills. Is Trumponomics working?

The theory doesn't offer any specifics about how or why the economy is doing better under Trump, which makes it conveniently hard to pin down a measure of Trump's success his backers can't dodge. Which parts of the economy changed? The stock market? How? Policy change usually results in winners and losers, so what sector of the American economy is hurt by Trump’s policies? Is there evidence of that? Since the “theory” Argon posed is really just “Trump is doing well for ‘the economy,’” the best we can do is look for correlations in macro-economic data. At some point after Trump became President, we should see a break in macro-economic indicators from Obama’s time in office. If Trump’s policies (or politics) are to credit, we should see the trend begin after he takes office (or at least after his election).

Do we?

Both unemployment and job volume appear on trend from the Obama years:

Image

Image

As do trends of major stock indexes:

Image

Image

GDP growth is within variation of the last two years:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Wage growth appears flat from three years ago:

Image

This probably shouldn’t be surprising, since Trump hasn’t passed a great deal of important economic legislation. The tax cuts might produce measurable response on some indicators, but it hasn’t been much time yet, and there's nothing in the post about what we should expect to "work" about this cut, specifically.

So far, if Trumponomics is working, it's not doing better than Obamanomics, which leaves open the distinct possibility that Trump is riding an Obama wave. It would be interesting to have a precise view of what Trump supporters think Trump is changing, and how, so we can look for specific evidence. Until then, it's just gibberish, like most of political stew.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BulletPark » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:42 pm

Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:59 am
BulletPark wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:05 am
Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:53 am


Trumponomics isn’t working?

What makes you say that? Or you don’t know. You just said it. And you don’t know why.
Because unless you are enough of a dumb twat (and really, you are) to think the stock market is the economy, things are more complex than what is being presented in this article that was published on a blog associated with people so clueless about America they probably think we shit on the other side of the toilet seat.

I live here.

You live in Wooloomooloomooloomooloomooloo.

I have a sizable interest in the US stock market. What my advisors are telling me is to prepare for a slowdown.

You don't.

I have worked with real estate professionals for the past five years int he luxury NYC market

You haven't.

I know what I'm talking about.

You have no fucking idea.
Tell us about your friends in the “luxury NYC market”. What do they have to say?

How are you preparing for the “slowdown”. When. trump was elected what did your “advisors” tell you to do?

Sure thing, you dumb cunt.

My contacts in real estate have told me the luxury market has taken a plunge. The general market has seen a high range downturn across the board with the partial exception of Lower Manhattan. Billionaire's Row is sputtering to a halt. Sales farther afield are also slowing. Feel free to read The Real Deal or any other US trade paper for more info if you have a spare moment between slurping koala dicks.

My financial advisors have informed our family council that we should diversify a long-held stock (three generations) that currently makes up a majority of our margin as the stock is currently overvalued at the current rate and may see a drastic downturn by year's end along with an expected slowdown in general. We have a meeting with them the first full work week of February to discuss a restructuring plan.

Since wunnering hoo awl dees peeples is is not a business model, I won't bother to ask you for tips.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by strife » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:44 pm

thegreenlantern wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:39 am
Wow, welcome back. Stick around.

/Felix
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BulletPark » Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:45 pm

strife wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:44 pm
thegreenlantern wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:39 am
Wow, welcome back. Stick around.

/Felix
Seconded.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:03 pm

strife wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:44 pm
thegreenlantern wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:39 am
Wow, welcome back. Stick around.

/Felix
Agreed.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:12 pm

So far, if Trumponomics is working, it's not doing better than Obamanomics, which leaves open the distinct possibility that Trump is riding an Obama wave. It would be interesting to have a precise view of what Trump supporters think Trump is changing, and how, so we can look for specific evidence. Until then, it's just gibberish, like most of political stew.
Yes, I'm very sure the stew's modern right cognoscenti will provide more details on how exactly Trumponomics is working exactly.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Electrolyte » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:37 pm

The genius of Trump was to do nothing and let the Obama economy continue its momentum.

It's not surprising that a huge tax cut didn't stop that momentum. But let's see what happens in a couple of years when the bill comes due. How idiotic to introduce a huge expensive stimulus into the economy when unemplyment is below 5 percent.

Trumps approval ratings are dismal even when the economy is booming. Wait until it tanks!

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by cowtown » Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:48 pm

Citizen Baba wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:03 pm
strife wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 1:44 pm
thegreenlantern wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 8:39 am
Wow, welcome back. Stick around.

/Felix
Agreed.
I’ll join in the gangbang


I’ll be very interested in the plight of the varmint during the next election cycle, curious if they finally got jobs and what sort of jobs. Not that it will matter in how they cast their vote
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:38 pm

Oh, yeah, sorry. Hi everyone. Hope the last four years have been nice to y'all, etc.

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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by eric84 » Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:08 pm

I'm just impressed you remembered your password. Welcome back.
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:51 am

cowtown wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:48 pm
I’ll be very interested in the plight of the varmint during the next election cycle, curious if they finally got jobs and what sort of jobs.
Well regardless I doubt the working class varmints are going to flock to your person next election unless you and the rest of the partisan puppets can swallow your disgust and distain for them & their trailer parks and minimum wage jobs.

How a bunch of left wing liberals lost the working class welfare minimum wage varmint voters who should be natural left leaning voters still amazes me.
cowtown wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 3:48 pm
Not that it will matter in how they cast their vote
A classic example of the liberal elite attitude toward the working class varmints that put Trump the clown boy into the White House last American presidential election.

You morons were beaten by a reality TV show host and unless you adjust your "losing" game and reach out to the working class varmints you will lose again.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
Last edited by Smoker on Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:06 am, edited 2 times in total.
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

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Smoker
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Smoker » Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:01 am

Argonheart_Po wrote:
Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:53 am
Trumponomics is working.................Trumponomics isn’t working?
Whether you think Trumponomics is working or not depends on cognitive bias.

The three people I know in Abu Dhabi that voted for Trump think the US economy is doing well and things are peachy.

Everyone that is still crying over their person losing to Trump the clown boy would sooner cut off their right arm than admit the USA didn't slide into the sea the day after a reality TV show host walked into the White House.

If something good happens then your person even if they aren't in office is magically given credit for it and if something bad happens then automatically that other guy is responsible for it.

I do like on this thread how so many people still haven't realized that the US president doesn't have mystical powers over the stock market.

Warmest Regards, Smoker
ben_hanscombe wrote:You're such a fucking cunt, Smoker. A really revolting piece of shit.

VinnyD wrote:She was over nine, she was a very mature nine-year-old

Godjira wrote:You're a filthy, vile idiot.

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incognita
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by incognita » Thu Feb 01, 2018 1:11 pm

Fuck those varmints, they will never leave the party. They are the buggy makers of the 21st century and they will never change. It's a waste of time to pursue those votes.
As an adult, the beer aisle at the grocery makes me feel exactly like the cereal aisle made me feel as a kid.

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Citizen Baba
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by Citizen Baba » Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:23 pm

"Employers added an average of 171,000 jobs a month in 2017, down from 187,000 the year before...A big surprise last year was that wage gains softened after gaining traction in 2015 and 2016, despite low and falling unemployment. "

thegreenlantern
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by thegreenlantern » Thu Feb 01, 2018 10:32 pm

"Whether you think Trumponomics is working or not depends on cognitive bias."

Sure, if you fail to define what it means for an economic strategy to "work". If you choose some indicators, you can stop relying on cognitive bias and present actual data.

If by "working" you mean "providing better results on unemployment, GDP growth, or wages than his immediate predecessor," then the answer is "no," as demonstrated by the data I presented above.

BulletPark
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Re: Trumponomics is working

Post by BulletPark » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:37 pm

I notice that Argo has not commented since I politely answered his request for more information and Greenlantern even more politely provided a comprehensive data sweep.

Doubtless there is a surfeit of marsupial dong to service.

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