Another Ford

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Homerj
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:37 pm

Good for you SG...best of luck to your candidate...I assume you live in the 416 so your candidate has a good chance of winning?

Eric, most of my contribution comes in the form of organizing events and driving folks places.
I'm the guy they send out to venues where the candidates do meet and greets.
Get a place to agree, set up a timetable take pics of the locations, make sure there is ample space for media and attendees etc. etc.
Basically use my sales background.

Also sometimes I'm simply a driver taking people/signs/things from one place to another.
I'm going to the back seat of my car, with the woman I love, and I won't be back for ten minutes!

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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:51 pm

Homerj wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 3:37 pm
Good for you SG...best of luck to your candidate...I assume you live in the 416 so your candidate has a good chance of winning?

Eric, most of my contribution comes in the form of organizing events and driving folks places.
I'm the guy they send out to venues where the candidates do meet and greets.
Get a place to agree, set up a timetable take pics of the locations, make sure there is ample space for media and attendees etc. etc.
Basically use my sales background.

Also sometimes I'm simply a driver taking people/signs/things from one place to another.
Cool. That reminds me of one of my most favourite campaign gaffs. Stewart Murray, pc leader, was doing an announcement at the polo park mall parking lot. Didn’t have permission or a permit and they got kicked off by security. And this was a guy who ran rock group tours
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Re: Another Ford

Post by RainbowFrizz » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:18 pm

So what are everybody's predictions for tonight? I'm guessing a PC minority.
"Ominous Spiritus" - Gowan

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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:38 pm

No guesses....if Andrea gets out the vote its a race...if voter turn-out is low then a PC majority.
That metric will be more telling than anything.
If news reports show big lines then I'd say the 'dippers have a real chance.
Our forecast is showing 68-70 seats but our forecast was off during the federal election.
I personally know some PC'ers who just refuse to vote for Ford, but they seem to be a very small majority.
It seems to be more of an anti-NDP vote than a pro-Ford vote (but once again that may just be my bias as I am not a big supporter of Mr. Ford).
Honestly I am just as interested to see if Ms. Wynne holds on to her seat and if the Libs retain official party status.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:52 pm

Tories will get 70 seats, 50 NDP, 3 Lib, 1 Green. Wynne loses and the Libs don't have party status.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:59 pm

Our projections are pretty similar Eric.
So many incumbent Libs bailed and didn't run in this election, so in many cases the riding is Liberal but there ins't an incumbent.
Doesn't CG have Wynne as his MP....I'd be interested on whether he thinks she will be re-elected, or if this is her Kim Campbell day.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:10 pm

PC majority, liberals do better than expected at expense of the NDP in popular vote, but essentially only save a couple of seats against the vast majority that they are projected to lose, in some of the northern Toronto ridings that don't vote NDP and dislike Ford.

PC - 64
NDP - 48
Liberal - 12

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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:11 pm

So does Wynne retain her seat CG (correct me but I thought she was in your riding)?
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:16 pm

Homerj wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:59 pm
Our projections are pretty similar Eric.
So many incumbent Libs bailed and didn't run in this election, so in many cases the riding is Liberal but there ins't an incumbent.
Doesn't CG have Wynne as his MP....I'd be interested on whether he thinks she will be re-elected, or if this is her Kim Campbell day.
I used to but I moved to the riding next door a couple of years ago. I see Wynne re-elected, she is very much the retail politician and personally popular in the riding - she's been at every single school function of my kids' since she was elected, and stays for the entire event. People are pretty impressed with a Premier that shows up and sits through 2 hours of your kids' elementary school Xmas concert. I admire all these types of politicans of any political persuasion - they're on duty 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year - I couldn't do it.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:26 pm

I remember you saying you thought she was a good MPP.

I'm not BS'ing I actually do hope SG's candidate wins.
It's a good feeling when someone you've worked for pulls out the victory.
Unfortunately I haven't had many of those in the past 4-5 years.
I remember there was the dude who used to post here named Barry who was from Ottawa.
At first we butted heads cuz he was a 'dipper and I'm a Con, but over time we both realized we had the same level of commitment, just to different parties.

My best case scenario is if Dougie wins it doesn't turn into a circus sideshow, however I am not holding my breath.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:31 pm

Homerj wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:26 pm
I remember you saying you thought she was a good MPP.

I'm not BS'ing I actually do hope SG's candidate wins.
It's a good feeling when someone you've worked for pulls out the victory.
Unfortunately I haven't had many of those in the past 4-5 years.
I remember there was the dude who used to post here named Barry who was from Ottawa.
At first we butted heads cuz he was a 'dipper and I'm a Con, but over time we both realized we had the same level of commitment, just to different parties.

My best case scenario is if Dougie wins it doesn't turn into a circus sideshow, however I am not holding my breath.
Yeah, we really need someone to do a clean up of the spending/regulation mess. I'm just not holding my breath. Instead of getting good sound budgets and policies that roll back the paperpushers, slow the growth in Hydro and healthcare costs, and business investment growing again, I'm worried it will be 4 years of the Toronto city hall Ford gong show part 2 and buck a beer. Well we'll soon find out.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by snowgirl » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:32 pm

I've always been impressed by your commitment to your party, Homes. I've never been that interested in scrutineering or anything as I think politicians are generally scumbags with a few dedicated souls among them.

The NDP candidate in my riding is the incumbent and should get in again easily. But overall I'm really worried. A PC win will majorly fuck with my field. There's literally nothing left to cut and someone campaigning on lowering taxes and cutting services is exactly the worst thing for people already really desperate. I don't think most people know or understand the level of poverty and desperation people are already dealing with. It's already massively fucked and a PC win will make it literally untenable. I don't know what we'll do.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:41 pm

Frankly, it would be easier for Wynne if she lost. There's no way she could or would want to hang on as Liberal leader. Save the province some money and put her out of her misery.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:43 pm

I can tell you one thing SG, as a party we always have to pander to the So-Cons, in order to secure their votes.
But when it comes down to implementing so-con policy, it either never comes to the floor, or in the most pandering way...it is allowed to come to the floor and members are allowed a "free vote"....thus they don't have to vote along party lines.
So when Stevie was in power he allowed the odd anti-abortion bill to be tabled, however once it was it got creamed on the floor as all NDP and Lib voted against it as well as many Cons.
Bill stays dead but we can go back to the base and say "hey we tried!".
My gut feeling is that will be the case with your safe injection sites.
However I will say that i have no doubt services will be cut, but sorry i blame the Liberals and their ballooning of the debt for that. Our credit rating as a province has dropped 3 times under their governance, thus more $ spent on interest and less on programs. They are also the WORLD's biggest non national government debtor.
However there are so many other more pressing issues that the types of cuts you speak will not happen soon.
Also laying off that many people doesn't exactly give a guy who's running as a job creator the employment numbers he needs to brag.
I guess what i am saying is, I don't think it's as bad as you think it will be and I think some off your blame/anger is misguided.
The Liberals put us in this dire economic situation, we are just stuck with being the party that has to make the cuts, but we have a massive civil service in this province and making big cuts would be as harmful to the economy as the big loss in manufacturing jobs we are already suffering from.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:55 pm

eric84 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:41 pm
Frankly, it would be easier for Wynne if she lost. There's no way she could or would want to hang on as Liberal leader. Save the province some money and put her out of her misery.
I suspect she will hang on for a year or so and then run for the feds in 2020. Or some social agency will pick her up as CEO.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:59 pm

C'mon, she is done in politics. I mean, I think she's unfairly criticized and she did do a lot but she has no political future. A role in an NGO or think tank would make sense.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:04 pm

eric84 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:59 pm
C'mon, she is done in politics. I mean, I think she's unfairly criticized and she did do a lot but she has no political future. A role in an NGO or think tank would make sense.
She's a politician's politician and loves the policy game. I could easily see her running for the feds. But perhaps your right and she's too much baggage - she'll land running one of the big social services agencies.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:16 pm

More importantly ...if Horwath does lose....is it three strikes your out?
I think so even if she does well, but loses.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:16 pm

She may want to run federally but there is really no way Trudeau would allow it. He already needs to be defensive in BC and the West generally the next election. No point in giving the Tories a gift of Wynne as a target.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:18 pm

eric84 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:16 pm
She may want to run federally but there is really no way Trudeau would allow it. He already needs to be defensive in BC and the West generally the next election. No point in giving the Tories a gift of Wynne as a target.
Agree.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:18 pm

Then again, Bob Rae eventually ran federally so I guess it's not completely out of the question.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:35 pm

eric84 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:16 pm
She may want to run federally but there is really no way Trudeau would allow it. He already needs to be defensive in BC and the West generally the next election. No point in giving the Tories a gift of Wynne as a target.
No one is going to give a shit if Wynne runs for MP in some riding in suburban Toronto. Its not like she's running for PM. If that's the best Sheer has got to bark about after 4 years of the Libs in power, he and the cons have got serious problems. As you said, Rae did, and his govt was 10 times the disaster of Wynnes. Made zero difference to the Liberals winning when he ran as MP.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by Bosworth » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:01 pm

Homerj wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:26 pm

I remember there was the dude who used to post here named Barry who was from Ottawa.
At first we butted heads cuz he was a 'dipper and I'm a Con, but over time we both realized we had the same level of commitment, just to different parties.
Barry only posted on YC never here. He actually ran for the NDP in Alberta yrs ago. Be nice to see him show up here but I don't think it is going to happen.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:18 pm

OK that's the guy...really nice fellow...I'd like to see him posting here as well.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Bosworth » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:51 pm

I'm choosing butter tarts.

Image
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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:20 am

CBC has called it for Doug, just not sure if it will be a Minority or Majority.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:21 am

Though it looks like it will be a Majority.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by RainbowFrizz » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:22 am

CTV is calling a majority for him. I'm not sure how they do that when the polls just closed 20 minutes ago.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:23 am

And just as I posted that, the CBC just called it a majority.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:26 am

Whoohooo, buck a beer

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Re: Another Ford

Post by RainbowFrizz » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:40 am

It looks like Guelph is going Green.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:44 am

Wake up call for the liberals. If your policies are the same as the NDP, then voters will decide why not vote NDP

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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:45 am

Nah, 15 years of governing meant losing was inevitable. Wynne should have realized that and left.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by coffeeguy » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:50 am

They ran a terrible campaign. They went hard to the left to try and force the NDP out. Instead, people decided wha the hell of I’m voting for NPD type policies, might as well vote NDP. They only tried to deal with the NDP threat the last couple of weeks, way too late.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:52 am

What I'm about to write is classless and wrong in this day and age...

but damn does Rosie Barton have big knockers.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:53 am

And since there is no more drama in the election, time to turn back to Game 5.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by RainbowFrizz » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:02 am

Liberals have elected 3 and are leading 6 - Just enough to maintain official party status.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by northern_goddess » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:24 am

Good fucking luck, Ontario

The votes have been counted, and you don’t want me in office anymore. I get it. And you know what? Good. You want Doug Ford in office? Well, good luck with that, assholes!

I’m sick and tired of dealing with your bad fucking attitude. All your whining and your judgement and your opinions about my haircut. You have no idea how much work I did for you. I gave you a $15 minimum wage. I gave you job growth. I gave you a competent sexual education curriculum in the hopes that the next generation will be able to competently operate their genitals. You’d think that would be enough for you Ontario, but nooooo.

It was never enough for you. I just tried to make things better, but I see now that that was my mistake. You don’t want things to be better. You want the moral high ground. You would rather live in a garbage fire of a province over your one dollar beers. I fucking get it. I hope you’re fucking happy now. Admit it. You don’t actually want Doug Ford. You just want to teach me a lesson for trying too hard, and for making changes, and for being a woman. No matter what Doug Ford does wrong, he’ll still manage to convince you it was my fault, and they’re just cleaning up my mess. And you’ll believe him. Why? Because you’re the mess, Ontario. You’re the fucking mess.

But you know what? Who cares? Not me. From now on, Kathleen Wynne is the premier of nobody but Kathleen Wynne.

I’m free. I can finally, stop wearing these goddamn pantsuits. I’m going to dust off my leather jacket. I can finally be a raging queer without worrying what Ted the conservative in Sudbury thinks. Screw you, Ted. It was never about hydro prices, was it? You just hate the idea that I have sex with women. Well I do, Ted. Lots of it. And I’m goddamn good at it too.

Good Luck, Doug Ford. You won. You may think it will be different for you. I’m sure it will be, for a little while. Enjoy it while you can. Eventually they’ll forget about hating me, and then you’ll be eaten alive. They will bully you to within an inch of your sanity, and you’ll still have to get up and do a press conference with a smile on your face. Enjoy it, sucker. I’m done smiling.

If you need me, I’m going to go sit in my backyard, crack open a good bottle of shiraz and scream along to “Jagged Little Pill”.

For those that voted for me: thank you for your support. For those that didn’t, good fucking luck.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:06 pm

A good day but not the point I want to make.
I think Andrea Horwath should resign as leader.
3 kicks at the can, and she is given this golden opportunity.
A decimated Liberal party....and Doug Ford to run against.
The confluence of these two gifts not seen before in Ontario politics yet she still manages only 40 seats.
I realize her candidates were a shit-show of lefty radicals...but come on.
Even I didn't expect this big of a majority.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:10 pm

They've been a 3rd party for over 20 years. They weren't a government in waiting and if the whole meltdown of the PC party hadn't happened, they likely would have been the 3rd place party again. So, being the official opposition is an achievement. Yes, they missed an opportunity there but they peaked too soon and let the Tories and Liberals have a run at them so not surprised that happened. Plus, I don't think they had the ground game to compete because I don't think they had the resources to win close ridings. That said, they have a chance in 4 years to be the alternative and keep the Liberals a 3rd party.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:30 pm

But do you elect a leader for that purpose?
My expectation is the leader will form govt.
That doesn't mean it always happens of course, but do you constantly re-elect someone because you hope they finish a strong second?
Look I thought AW ran a good campaign, but with all the ducks in a row she could still only manage 40 seats.

Another little aside...do the 'dippers give the Libs official party status?
Turns out the 'dippers have twice not gotten enuf seats to be an official party.
The Cons gave them accreditation in the 90's but the Libs denied them it in the 80's.
I'm not sure what the protocol is but I think it has to have all parties support.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:31 pm

Also kudos to the Green Party guy!
His riding was seriously up for grabs to all 3 of the other parties and he pulls out a win.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:35 pm

Homerj wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:30 pm
But do you elect a leader for that purpose?
My expectation is the leader will form govt.
That doesn't mean it always happens of course, but do you constantly re-elect someone because you hope they finish a strong second?
Look I thought AW ran a good campaign, but with all the ducks in a row she could still only manage 40 seats.

Another little aside...do the 'dippers give the Libs official party status?
Turns out the 'dippers have twice not gotten enuf seats to be an official party.
The Cons gave them accreditation in the 90's but the Libs denied them it in the 80's.
I'm not sure what the protocol is but I think it has to have all parties support.
The NDP is different because many don't expect them to form government. I think some even prefer that they don't. Yes, I think it's a decision made by the legislature. Having party status doesn't seem all that important to me. Who watches question period anyway?
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:35 pm

eric84 wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:35 pm
Homerj wrote:
Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:30 pm
But do you elect a leader for that purpose?
My expectation is the leader will form govt.
That doesn't mean it always happens of course, but do you constantly re-elect someone because you hope they finish a strong second?
Look I thought AW ran a good campaign, but with all the ducks in a row she could still only manage 40 seats.

Another little aside...do the 'dippers give the Libs official party status?
Turns out the 'dippers have twice not gotten enuf seats to be an official party.
The Cons gave them accreditation in the 90's but the Libs denied them it in the 80's.
I'm not sure what the protocol is but I think it has to have all parties support.
The NDP is different because many don't expect them to form government. I think some even prefer that they don't. Yes, I think it's a decision made by the legislature. Having party status doesn't seem all that important to me. Who watches question period anyway?
There is extra funding involved as well Eric...i think thats as important as QP.
However maybe you are right about the NDP....sorry as a Con I do not think in any other terms than win/lose.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:40 pm

Right, you get a few bucks to hire researchers. I don't see that as particularly important. The NDP may not feel all that charitable towards the Liberals.
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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:47 pm

I have the same feeling Eric.
I'm going to the back seat of my car, with the woman I love, and I won't be back for ten minutes!

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eric84
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Re: Another Ford

Post by eric84 » Fri Jun 08, 2018 6:59 pm

This is funny: Wynne claimed the Liberals gave the NDP official party status in 2003 even though they only had 7 seats. Fact check: Not true. The Liberals refused to and the NDP had to win a by-election to get to party status.

I say fuck those guys and make the Liberals starve. They are awful, craven, hypocrites.
Love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by Homerj » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:31 pm

This may also be Horwaths opportunity to be the default party of the left for Ontario.
The only problem is the Ont. Libs and Fed Libs go hand in hand....many who worked on KW's 2014 election also worked on Trudeau's 2015.
My guess is the Fed party will come to their rescue.
However the real hypocrisy is the screams on the left for proportional representation instead of first past the post.
All these a-holes on twitter where losing their shit so I asked a couple of them to please post their 2014 tweets of them wanting the same thing when KW won her majority with only 38% of the popular vote.
Surprise, no one could/would.
I'm going to the back seat of my car, with the woman I love, and I won't be back for ten minutes!

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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:36 pm

And just like you probably bitched back in the late '90's and early 2000's when the conservative vote was split between the PC's and the Canadian Alliance.
Everyone is a victim to a social worker.

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Re: Another Ford

Post by sodelicious » Fri Jun 08, 2018 7:39 pm

I'm not against FPTP per say, but I don't see what's wrong with trying out some sort of Proportional Representation system either, and if it doesn't work go back to FPTP. I'm looking fwd to the referendum in BC about changing the electoral system.

I think the run off system would work, if no candidate gets 50% then the top two face a run off around 2 weeks later.
Everyone is a victim to a social worker.

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