Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin? Or Paul-Hulka?
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Postby salmonid » Sat Oct 04, 2008 10:27 pm

Screw it, c'mon Cisco:

Obama 291

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Postby AnnieOakley » Sat Oct 04, 2008 10:30 pm

Cisco wrote:
AnnieOakley wrote:eYe degree. Get in the game, Cisco.


I will, but not quite yet.

Obama definitely has the edge right now, but in politics a month can be an eternity.

Too much potential volatility to waste time doing the math today.


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Postby judik » Sun Oct 05, 2008 12:45 am

Screw it, c'mon Cisco:

Obama 291

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Postby Citizen Baba » Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:02 am

Obama 325

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Postby Godjira » Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:22 am

would "Bush suspends democratic elections indefinitely" be an acceptable bet??
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Postby Lost Soul » Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:40 am

McBane 290.

The Dumbocrats found another way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Idiots all.

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Postby RandomThoughts » Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:12 pm

McCain 277
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Postby equus » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:07 am

Obama 270
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Postby UrbanII » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:10 am

Obama 302
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Postby Piel! » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:28 am

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Postby Redsales » Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:06 am

McCain 273

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Postby korgy » Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:09 pm

i've been thinking about this contest.

i think there should be some relationship between how early someone posts their bet, and winning. in other words, if someone [hypothetically]posted "McCain 292" the day before the election, and someone posted "McCain 291" one month before the election, and McCain won at 292, the person who posted one month in advance really had the better foresight.

so, since BEA has already made the rules, i say there should be two prizes: one for the person who gets it closest the farthest out from the election, and one who gets it closest at any time. can't think of an easy way to do that...

so, i say the person who gets it closest, who has posted before tonight's debate (10/7), is the other winner.

any other ideas?

not sure what the other prize should be --i'm not really willing to give up my sigline yet (!)
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Postby Vince » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:19 pm

korgy wrote:i've been thinking about this contest.

i think there should be some relationship between how early someone posts their bet, and winning. in other words, if someone [hypothetically]posted "McCain 292" the day before the election, and someone posted "McCain 291" one month before the election, and McCain won at 292, the person who posted one month in advance really had the better foresight.

so, since BEA has already made the rules, i say there should be two prizes: one for the person who gets it closest the farthest out from the election, and one who gets it closest at any time. can't think of an easy way to do that...

so, i say the person who gets it closest, who has posted before tonight's debate (10/7), is the other winner.

any other ideas?

not sure what the other prize should be --i'm not really willing to give up my sigline yet (!)


Should be weighted relative to how near you are to the poll. If you said a month ago McCain 292 when the poll was Obama 336 then you are proved right while someon else picked McCain 292 when the poll was predicting the same................then

Too complicated. Place your bets the day before and closest wins.
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Postby AnnieOakley » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:10 pm

BEA? It's your fiesta, dude.
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:15 pm

Weighting, feh, too much work. Closest guess wins and tie breaker is date of entry/last edit. That's an incentive for people to put their chips down and not sandbag until the end.
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Postby UrbanII » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:47 am

Have a cut off date.
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Postby korgy » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:55 am

i like Urban's idea. we already have a lot of contestants - give 'em another week - before the last debate.
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Postby pezworld » Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:57 am

Or right after?
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Postby korgy » Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:32 pm

without a deadline, this thread is kind of silly. some people will do what they've always done: make bad predictions and then change them at the last minute after all the evidence is in.

i say whoever above has already made a prediction by this date, today, and has not changed it -- and is closest -- is MY winner.
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:34 pm

korgy wrote:without a deadline, this thread is kind of silly. some people will do what they've always done: make bad predictions and then change them at the last minute after all the evidence is in.

i say whoever above has already made a prediction by this date, today, and has not changed it -- and is closest -- is MY winner.


Why today? That's silly. In 2004, even though I closed guesses the day before the election, no one got the right number of EVs out of 80 guesses!
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Postby korgy » Wed Oct 08, 2008 7:45 pm

no specific reason for today exactly. maybe before the next debate. i was saying MY winner anyway (not yours).

i'm more interested in who has the best foresight rather than who wins a guessing game...it's really a different contest.
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Postby AntiEverything » Wed Oct 08, 2008 8:32 pm

Face it guys - i've won
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Postby eric84 » Thu Oct 09, 2008 4:25 pm

364 EVs for Obama.
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Postby korgy » Wed Oct 15, 2008 2:47 am

looks like no one yet has changed their bid for any reason.

so, in the interest of seeing who wins the korgy contest -- who had the best longshot estimate -- here are the numbers as they stand the night before the last debate:

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
Sonora Obama 309
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

(corrected)
Last edited by korgy on Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby korgy » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:04 am

btw, i am rather fond of the newly-created nom-de-politico
"Cirizen Baba Obama"
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Postby Piel! » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:22 am

korgy wrote:looks like no one yet has changed their bid for any reason.

so, in the interest of seeing who wins the korgy contest -- who had the best longshot estimate -- here are the numbers as they stand the night before the last debate:

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
Sonora Obama 309
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364


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Postby korgy » Fri Oct 17, 2008 2:43 am

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315
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Postby Espina » Fri Oct 17, 2008 5:13 am

...give the early predictors a (+ or -) of EVs equivalent to how many days before the election they predicted. Cut it in 1/2 if 60 EV's is too wide of target range.

EspinaObama 287 Oct.16th
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Mon Oct 20, 2008 6:57 pm

Come on, fraidy cats! We need more predictions!
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Postby cuchulainn » Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:11 pm

Obama 333.


1/2 of the number of the beast.

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Postby foolsprogress » Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:24 pm

From a quick glance, it looks like it's mostly the right that's hesitant to put their predictions in writing.
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Postby judik » Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:26 pm

Heh,cuch
Wouldn't it be grand if that happened???????
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Postby cuchulainn » Mon Oct 20, 2008 7:49 pm

Team Jesus would be apoplectic.

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Postby korgy » Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:34 pm

foolsprogress wrote:From a quick glance, it looks like it's mostly the right that's hesitant to put their predictions in writing.


i can understand that. if i were rooting for a baseball team i wouldn't want to put place my bid on the opposing team to win just because it was ahead.

on the other hand, a few Obama supporters (one?) have bid on McCain.
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Postby judik » Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:05 pm

I reluctantly put up a number.Still not sure it's a done deal
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Postby i_have_shiny_shoes » Tue Oct 21, 2008 4:29 pm

Oh, Korgy, you missed my 309 from 2 October (CA, OR, WA, NM, CO, MN, IA, IL, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, FL, HI)
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

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Postby korgy » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:19 pm

IHSS, sorry! will edit above, and re-post all below..
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Postby korgy » Tue Oct 21, 2008 6:25 pm

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
Sonora Obama 309
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333
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Postby tph24601 » Tue Oct 21, 2008 8:51 pm

Obama 278

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Postby mali » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:09 pm

McCain - landslide.
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Postby korgy » Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:52 pm

no number?
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Postby Collateral Knowledge » Tue Oct 21, 2008 10:32 pm

I don't even know what total it's out of, but I think Obama will win by a small amount. Does 294 sound right for that?

Anyway, I think he will get 294 points and win. If 294 is too small a number, then obviously he will lose.
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Postby SeanMMM » Tue Oct 21, 2008 11:27 pm

Obama- 538 EV's, bitches. What's my prize gonna be?

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Postby q5q » Wed Oct 22, 2008 1:48 am

Collateral Knowledge wrote:I don't even know what total it's out of, but I think Obama will win by a small amount. Does 294 sound right for that?

Anyway, I think he will get 294 points and win. If 294 is too small a number, then obviously he will lose.


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Postby Collateral Knowledge » Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:00 am

Okay, well I think he'll clearly win, but not by all that much, so i'll stick with my prediction. I hope it's a big margin but I doubt it will be.
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Postby equus » Wed Oct 22, 2008 7:21 am

q5q wrote:
Collateral Knowledge wrote:I don't even know what total it's out of, but I think Obama will win by a small amount. Does 294 sound right for that?

Anyway, I think he will get 294 points and win. If 294 is too small a number, then obviously he will lose.


270 is the number of the best.


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Postby Collateral Knowledge » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:02 am

And you probably put time and effort and analysis of polls and voting patterns into your estimation - whereas I just used near total ignorance and numerology. Let's see which one of us is actually correct.
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Postby foolsprogress » Wed Oct 22, 2008 10:21 am

Collateral Knowledge wrote:And you probably put time and effort and analysis of polls and voting patterns into your estimation - whereas I just used near total ignorance and numerology. Let's see which one of us is actually correct.

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Postby BulletPark » Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:39 pm

McCain.

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