Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin? Or Paul-Hulka?
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Postby QPR_Paul » Mon Nov 03, 2008 4:45 pm

Obama 319

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Postby i_have_shiny_shoes » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:12 pm

538 now puts Obama's win percentage at 98.1%
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

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Postby Byrdfelt » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:42 pm


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Postby blueeyes_austin » Mon Nov 03, 2008 11:43 pm

Contest is locked down.

Good luck everyone!
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Postby judik » Tue Nov 04, 2008 1:35 am

Image
Rove's map
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Tue Nov 04, 2008 1:58 am

338 was my guess way back when!
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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:05 am

Oct 2
blueeyes_austin Obama 338
i_have_shiny_shoes Obama 309
AntiEverything Obama 313
Felix Obama 310
AnnieOakley Obama 303
foolsprogress Obama 283
Vince Obama 336
section8 Obama 307
joeyramone Obama 320
Godjira Obama 300
DeSelby Obama 375
avalon_ Obama 330

Oct 3
korgy Obama 348
[strike]Sonora Obama 309 [/strike]
judik Obama 291
pezworld McCain 280

Oct 4
salmonid Obama 291
Citizen Baba Obama 325

Oct 5
Lost Soul McCain 290
RandomThoughts McCain 277
equus Obama 270
UrbanII Obama 302

Oct 6
Redsales McCain 273

Oct 9
eric84 Obama 364

Oct 15
LuZbelito Obama 315

Oct 16
Espina Obama 287

Oct 20
cuchulainn Obama 333

Oct 21
tph24601 Obama 278
Collateral Knowledge Obama 294
SeanMMM Obama 538

Oct 23
Ryan Obama 296

Oct 24
Argonheart_Po McCain 274

Oct 25
Electrolyte Obama 400

Oct 28
coffeeguy Obama 360
Sonora Obama 340

Oct 31
Wellpisser Obama 335

Nov 1
Northof49 Obama 311

Nov 2
Byrdfelt Obama 349

Nov 3

QPR_Paul Obama 319
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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:06 am

BEA may win his own contest...
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Postby Electrolyte » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:12 am


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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:26 am

interesting -- why not just post them all?

lection Night Predictions
November 02, 2008 9:36 AM

Mark Halperin, Time Magazine:
Electoral Vote -- 349 Obama
Senate -- 58 Democratic seats
House -- Democrats net 28 House seats

Matthew Dowd, former Republican strategist:
Electoral Vote -- 338 plus Obama
Senate -- 8 plus pick ups for Democrats
House -- 17 plus pick ups for Democrats

George Will, ABC News contributor:
Electoral Vote -- 378 Obama
Senate -- 8 pick ups for the Democrats
House -- 21 pick ups for the Democrats

Donna Brazile, former Democratic strategist:
Electoral Vote -- Obama 343
Senate - Democrats 59 plus runoff
House - Democrats pick up 29

Here are my predictions ...

George Stephanopoulos:
Electoral Vote -- 353 Obama
Senate -- 58 Democrats
House -- House Democrats pick up 28 seats
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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:29 am

i find it interesting that no one here on PS picked 353.
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Postby judik » Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:25 am

I don't care how many pundits call it for Obama
My stomach is still in knots
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Postby Sonora » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:20 pm

I wonder why the Rove map doesn't have any states as tossups. If you look at the percentages, it has Missouri at 0 (unless I just can't read it---it is kind of fuzzy on this computer) and a few others within 3.

What's the prize for BEA if he wins?

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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:24 pm

Sonora, i have a contest going also. scroll up for the prize...

mine is for the person who was within 4 points first.
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:28 pm

Sonora wrote:I wonder why the Rove map doesn't have any states as tossups. If you look at the percentages, it has Missouri at 0 (unless I just can't read it---it is kind of fuzzy on this computer) and a few others within 3.

What's the prize for BEA if he wins?


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Postby Sonora » Tue Nov 04, 2008 3:46 pm

blueeyes_austin wrote:
Sonora wrote:What's the prize for BEA if he wins?


My sig line for a week. And eternal glory, of course.


Yeah, but if you win, getting your own sig line (which you have already anyway) isn't much of a prize (except for the eternal glory). However, if you win your contest, you will also win Korgy's since you were the first to pick a number at all.

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Postby Ryan » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:26 pm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americ ... 693060.stm

Polling agency predictions on BBC online.
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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:30 pm

Sonora wrote:
blueeyes_austin wrote:
Sonora wrote:What's the prize for BEA if he wins?


My sig line for a week. And eternal glory, of course.


Yeah, but if you win, getting your own sig line (which you have already anyway) isn't much of a prize (except for the eternal glory). However, if you win your contest, you will also win Korgy's since you were the first to pick a number at all.


or, he can tell me not to post till December, or he can ask me to back him on a debate on this board.
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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 5:07 pm

does anyone else find something odd in fivethirtyeight's most recent likely electoral outcomes? the five most likely models range from 291 to 378.

isn't this a rather wide range? seems odd...

311, 338, 378, 353, 291.

i suppose if the races in the swing states having the highest numbers of electors are getting tighter, that would account for it...
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Postby CatScanMan » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:32 pm

Ralph Nader -- 357.

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Postby Vince » Tue Nov 04, 2008 8:46 pm

CatScanMan wrote:Ralph Nader -- 357.


You complete cunt. I've been sitting here for weeks waiting to find out who is officially "the worst pundit on the stew". I'm ignoring your contribution.
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Postby CatScanMan » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:03 pm

Hehe.

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Postby blueeyes_austin » Tue Nov 04, 2008 9:58 pm

Thanks, korgy, for keeping the running total.

We have 37 valid entries. The average predicted Obama electoral vote outcome was 312. The median was 308. The range was 248-400. The standard deviation was 35 electoral votes. Only five people predicted a McCain victory.
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Postby korgy » Tue Nov 04, 2008 11:59 pm

The standard deviation was 35 electoral votes


BEA, what does this mean?
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Wed Nov 05, 2008 12:04 am

korgy wrote:
The standard deviation was 35 electoral votes


BEA, what does this mean?


It is a statistic that measures the amount of spread from the average in a distribution. The more widely dispersed sample, the larger the standard deviation.
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Postby korgy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 6:30 am

thanks.

as i head for bed, fivethirtyeight is predicting Obama will win all four mainland states remaining to be counted -- which would result in 378. i'm not so optimistic, but i really hope he wins NC at least.
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Postby cuchulainn » Wed Nov 05, 2008 6:59 am

I was close, I guessed 333.

But the Book of Revelations, my lodestar and guide, failed me. :cry:

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Postby DeSelby » Wed Nov 05, 2008 8:11 am

He has NC and IN but not Montana - that gets him to 364. Missouri is the only outstanding, McCain is ahead by 6,000 votes at 99%. If that holds Coffeeguy has it with a 360 prediction. If Missouri flips then I get it with a 375.

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Postby CatScanMan » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:29 am

Nader's been robbed again.

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Postby i_have_shiny_shoes » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:58 am

Looks like at this stage Indiana and North Carolina are going Democrat, Missouri staying Republican. According to CNN:

Indiana has 99% of precincts reporting, Obama 1,352,356, McCain 1,329,370.
North Carolina has 100% of precincts reporting, Obama 2,101,986, McCain 2,089,826.
Missouri has 100% of precincts reporting, McCain 1,442,577, Obama 1,436,724.

That makes Obama 364 - McCain 174, right? If so, Eric gets it.
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Postby AnnieOakley » Wed Nov 05, 2008 1:24 pm

Sheese. Whupped by a hoser.
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Postby eric84 » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:01 pm

That makes Obama 364 - McCain 174, right? If so, Eric gets it.


Well, there's Georgia too.....600K votes still to count from advance voting apparently. Probably will impact the Senate race more. Anyways, I may have my own contest to pick the best sig line for BEA once it's official.
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Postby korgy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:09 pm

eric, if is indeed 364, you've won my contest also.

Annie, NC is now split by 12,000 votes -- must feel good to be on the right side of that razor.
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Postby Electrolyte » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:11 pm

Intrade says 364.

Can I challenge the result in Texas? If I am successful that would make 398 and I would be the winner. Rats! I was just one state away.

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Postby AnnieOakley » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:22 pm

korgy wrote:eric, if is indeed 364, you've won my contest also.

Annie, NC is now split by 12,000 votes -- must feel good to be on the right side of that razor.


We're all pretty happy, but the big buzz around here last night/this morning was the end of Lizzie Dole. The folks in this neck of the swamp are somewhat backward in many respects, but they are polite to a fault. When Dole got real nasty in the end, even some of the hardcore turned their backs on her.
The witch is dead.
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Postby korgy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:37 pm

Annie, that was some defeat!!!

groovy!!
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Postby blueeyes_austin » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:38 pm

Damn, just a few thousand votes in NC and IN separates me from victory!
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Postby eric84 » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:42 pm

When Dole got real nasty in the end, even some of the hardcore turned their backs on her.


Last night on CNN, it was pointed out too that Lizzie was a pretty ineffective Senator without any real influence (someone cited a ranking of Senators where she finished 93rd).
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Postby korgy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:44 pm

DeSelby deserves credit here - guessing 375 on Oct. 2nd, he's the first one to guess anywhere near the victory number, until eric did -- (not sure how you get to 375 though!)

maybe moe will come on and congratulate "ereich" for his foresight?
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Postby AnnieOakley » Wed Nov 05, 2008 3:51 pm

Senator Dole hasn't been in touch with her base in a long time, spending most of her time in DC. The "godless" ads were the straw.
She'll get a healthy 'chute from the Senate, to go with her package from 8 years with the Red Cross. Add talking head gigs and speaking dates, and she's set for life.
NC is changing. Lots of new people moving into the state. The dinosaur moves...
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Postby tph24601 » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:19 pm

Mrs Viagra was in charge of the Republican National Senate Election Committee in 2006, and we all know what happened there.....

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Postby AnnieOakley » Wed Nov 05, 2008 4:20 pm

Then, it was her time to go.
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Postby Sonora » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:20 pm

Right now CNN.com has Obama with 350, McCain with 162, and Missouri and North Carolina still too close to call. That means, if McCain wins both states, Obama has 350 EV and Byrdfelt wins BEA's contest (349) and Korgy wins his own contest (348 on October 2). If Obama wins Missouri and McCain wins North Carolina, he has 361, and Coffeeguy wins BEA's contest (360) but Eric wins Korgy's (364 on October 9). If Obama wins North Carolina but McCain wins Missouri, that will give OBama 365. In that case, Eric wins both contests with his 364 prediction. If Obama wins both states, that gives him 376, and DeSelby's 375 wins both contests.

Right now, every polling thing I have looked at shows McCain with a very slight lead in Missouri and Obama with a very slight lead in North Carolina. In Missouri, though, heavily democratic St Louis City had no precincts reporting, which could make a big difference.

Wow---I thought I was being overly optimistic with my 340 guess!

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Postby eric84 » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:26 pm

In Missouri, though, heavily democratic St Louis City had no precincts reporting, which could make a big difference.


Not according to the CNN map....it has all precincts reporting with McCain ahead by 6,000 votes. Oh, and Obama has 349 EVs right now.
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Postby korgy » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:29 pm

Sonora, CNN is showing Obama with 349, with Missouri and NC still in question.

McCain leads in MO, and Obama leads in NC. NC would give Obama 364.
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Postby Sonora » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:32 pm

Okay, that's changed in the last few hours then. The St Louis radio station said otherwise this morning.

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Postby Sonora » Wed Nov 05, 2008 5:39 pm

You're right---349, not 350. I stand corrected. I had a few open at the same time and I think I added the Omaha district onto the wrong one trying to reconcile them. Time for more caffiene then.

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Postby DeSelby » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:09 pm

DeSelby deserves credit here - guessing 375 on Oct. 2nd, he's the first one to guess anywhere near the victory number, until eric did -- (not sure how you get to 375 though!)


Sonora, CNN is showing Obama with 349, with Missouri and NC still in question.

McCain leads in MO, and Obama leads in NC. NC would give Obama 364.


If MO turned Obama, he would have 375. I listed the states he would win to get to 375 in original post (apart from the ones that were already in the bag), MO is the only one that did not pan out.

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Postby Lost Soul » Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:13 pm

I win the award for having the prediction furthest from the reality-based community.

I win!
IMPRISON BUSH!

INDICT HILLARY!

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