Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Obama-Biden or McCain-Palin? Or Paul-Hulka?
Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Election Prediction Thread--2008 US Presidential Election

Postby blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:22 pm

The Rules:
1) Choose your winner and predicted EVs.
2) Closest guess gets my sig for a whole week and eternal glory as a prognosticator
3) You can edit your choices after your initial post, however the edited date will count in the case of ties.

Edit: Mods, please make as a sticky.
Last edited by blueeyes_austin on Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Postby blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:23 pm

My guess:

Obama, 338 EV
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

playing outside
User avatar
Posts: 6170
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 11:36 am
Location: London, UK

Postby i_have_shiny_shoes » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:26 pm

Obama, 338 EV


I'll post mine in a little while, but which states are you thinking for it to be that size of victory?

ETA - Obama. CA, OR, WA, NM, CO, MN, IA, IL, WI, MI, PA, NY, VT, ME, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, VA, FL, HI. If my calculations are correct, that's 309. Thanks S8
Last edited by i_have_shiny_shoes on Fri Oct 03, 2008 9:21 am, edited 4 times in total.
we're discussing it, so it's not secret.

Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Postby blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:30 pm

i_have_shiny_shoes wrote:
Obama, 338 EV


I'll post mine in a little while, but which states are you thinking for it to be that size of victory?


I think Obama will clear out the west (NV/NM/CO), IA, OH, VA, and FL and not lose a single Kerry state.

At this point I should say that I think this is an optimistic outcome for McCain. It could be far worse.
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 4614
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:43 pm
Location: Way over the line

Postby AntiEverything » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:33 pm

Obama

313EV
Take note of the above comment. It may change your life.

arrogant Yankee cokehead
User avatar
Posts: 5945
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:30 pm

Postby Felix » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:34 pm

Osama 310.
Cherman humor: ha! because your father hates you, you have no one to fuck, you can't afford health care, you have nothing but this board, you pretend to have cancer, you are a racist pig, you are stupid, you are a bloody fuckface...

red fanged She-devil
User avatar
Posts: 19740
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 10:11 pm

Postby incognita » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:35 pm

Op stuck.
As an adult, the beer aisle at the grocery makes me feel exactly like the cereal aisle made me feel as a kid.

stewed
User avatar
Posts: 5563
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:54 pm
Location: Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA

Postby AnnieOakley » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:46 pm

Obama 303
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 15029
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2005 10:33 am
Location: Phnom Penh

Postby foolsprogress » Thu Oct 02, 2008 6:57 pm

Obama 283 EV
Let me live in a house by the side of the road...

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 13299
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2008 2:28 pm

Postby Vince » Thu Oct 02, 2008 7:51 pm

Obama: 336
"Do you ski?"
"Do I look like I can ski you fuckhead, I can barely walk."

the Secret Sauce
User avatar
Posts: 26089
Joined: Sun Jan 02, 2005 11:46 pm
Location: El Norte

Postby section8 » Thu Oct 02, 2008 7:54 pm

I think it'll be close, maybe a bit of a wider spread than Bush-Kerry.

IHSS, it looks like you forgot Hawaii's EVs.

EV=307
Last edited by section8 on Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
My revolutionary farmer friend once labeled me as "severely creative." Yes, yes, I like tall-bike building and riding, making fermented foods, wild-crafting and being silent in places where there are no human sounds.

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 3566
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 4:29 am
Location: Where 40 below keeps the riff raff out

Postby Sonora » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:15 pm

Obama by a narrow margin. You want me to edit this post to add an EV number or add a new reply, Blueeyes?

Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Postby blueeyes_austin » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:17 pm

Sonora wrote:Obama by a narrow margin. You want me to edit this post to add an EV number or add a new reply, Blueeyes?


If you want a shot at my sig line and immortal glory, yes.
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

stewed
User avatar
Posts: 5563
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:54 pm
Location: Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA

Postby AnnieOakley » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:38 pm

Screw the glory--gimmee dat sigline.
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 18460
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:43 pm
Location: The City Of Chicago, IL

Postby joeyramone » Thu Oct 02, 2008 9:54 pm

Obama 320.
"Your fairy tale would sound better if two elves came out and did the Safety Dance at the end." Logg to Zaffer

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 59945
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:52 pm
Location: 東京

Postby Godjira » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:27 am

Obama, 300
That's the kind of bold flavor they enjoy in Albuquerque!

Stew Ingredient
Posts: 244
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:11 am

Postby DeSelby » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:42 am

I am going to go with a rout: 375 Obama.

Obama wins CO, FL, IN, MO, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 22998
Joined: Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:26 am
Location: Abbityville

Postby avalon_ » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:48 am

Obama: 330 ev

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 1621
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2008 3:15 pm
Location: Well and truly inside Wellpisser's angry head.

Postby AussieBob » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:54 am

Osama (the evil back dude whose middle name sounds like osama - 336. Go Osama, er Obama I mean for those easily confused - paul?)
Collateral Knowledge: I hope you lose your legs in a car bomb.

Stew Ingredient
Posts: 6640
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:32 pm

Postby tph24601 » Fri Oct 03, 2008 12:55 am

isn't it a bit early for prediction with still a whole month to go?

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20786
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:21 pm
Location: Redmond,Wa

Postby judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 3:40 pm

Being someone who has voted for the losing team most of her life I have to agree with tph
Sorry BEA but your sigline isn't enough of a prize for me to go out on a limb
Show me the money!
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

Winston Churchill

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20938
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:55 am
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Postby korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:03 pm

Obama 348
"the rise of Kim Crow"

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 3566
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 4:29 am
Location: Where 40 below keeps the riff raff out

Postby Sonora » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:12 pm

blueeyes_austin wrote:
Sonora wrote:Obama by a narrow margin. You want me to edit this post to add an EV number or add a new reply, Blueeyes?


If you want a shot at my sig line and immortal glory, yes.


I meant that as an either/or question.

Okay, Obama with 309.

Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Postby blueeyes_austin » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:13 pm

judik wrote:Being someone who has voted for the losing team most of her life I have to agree with tph
Sorry BEA but your sigline isn't enough of a prize for me to go out on a limb
Show me the money!


Bwack, bwack, bwack, CHICKEN!
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20786
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:21 pm
Location: Redmond,Wa

Postby judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:15 pm

I never misunderestimate the ability of dems to shoot themselves in the foot!
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

Winston Churchill

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20786
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:21 pm
Location: Redmond,Wa

Postby judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:43 pm

OK 291

Can you change your sig line to something more interesting?

edited to add Obama in 291
Last edited by judik on Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

Winston Churchill

stewed
User avatar
Posts: 5563
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:54 pm
Location: Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA

Postby AnnieOakley » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:45 pm

I think the winner (me, in this case...) gets to choose BEA's sig for a week.
Think "Your message, his billboard".
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20938
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:55 am
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Postby korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 4:46 pm

judik wrote:I never misunderestimate the ability of dems to shoot themselves in the foot!


oh, c'mon, this is just a sillly little game - it's not like saying "Obama is toast. Only a bunch of looney lefties don't know it yet."

so far, everyone on this thread thinks Obama will win -- we're just throwing in our chips for fun!
"the rise of Kim Crow"

Sole Guardian of Truth and Sanity
User avatar
Posts: 8532
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 10:09 pm
Location: Washington DC

Postby Electrolyte » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:20 pm

blueeyes_austin wrote:My guess:

Obama, 338 EV

Same as Intrade.com

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20938
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:55 am
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Postby korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:25 pm

judik wrote:OK 291

Can you change your sig line to something more interesting?


judi, if i understand correctly, you get to post whatever you want in his sigline area...

correct?
"the rise of Kim Crow"

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20786
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:21 pm
Location: Redmond,Wa

Postby judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:31 pm

Duh
Need.More.coffee
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

Winston Churchill

Hamburglar
User avatar
Posts: 5934
Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 6:28 pm
Location: Northernmost Banana Republic

Postby salmonid » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:34 pm

When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20938
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:55 am
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Postby korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:01 pm

salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


yeah, but someone else might beat you to it.

QUESTION for BEA: what amount is considered winning "handily" against McCain? 300? 310?
"the rise of Kim Crow"

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20938
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:55 am
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Postby korgy » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:02 pm

judik wrote:Duh
Need.More.coffee


i didn't get it at first also. wasn't that clear.
"the rise of Kim Crow"

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 3566
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 4:29 am
Location: Where 40 below keeps the riff raff out

Postby Sonora » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:23 pm

salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


:lol:

Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Postby blueeyes_austin » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:43 pm

korgy wrote:
salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


yeah, but someone else might beat you to it.

QUESTION for BEA: what amount is considered winning "handily" against McCain? 300? 310?


I'd argue that winning handily would be a scenario where flipping a major state doesn't change the outcome. E.g., Obama wins with Ohio or without Ohio.
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20786
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:21 pm
Location: Redmond,Wa

Postby judik » Fri Oct 03, 2008 6:54 pm

My 291 is based on not winning Ohio
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.

Winston Churchill

Admin's Concubine
User avatar
Posts: 30599
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 7:00 pm

Postby pezworld » Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:43 pm

Am I reading this correctly?

So is I post something like McCain, 280, I win no matter what he gets if he wins?

I mean, I'm still not over Bush's re-election, and I'm a raging pessimist.

Put me down for that. I'm sure I'll change it.
Jesus, you turn your back for one second and the next thing you know, everyone's going all fucking kumbaya and shit around this dump - Moe

Blue Eyed Devil
User avatar
Posts: 3244
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:13 am

Postby blueeyes_austin » Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:48 pm

pezworld wrote:Am I reading this correctly?

So is I post something like McCain, 280, I win no matter what he gets if he wins?

I mean, I'm still not over Bush's re-election, and I'm a raging pessimist.

Put me down for that. I'm sure I'll change it.


Ah, someone who learned her lesson on The Price is Right!
"We shall cause a distortionary response in US fiscal policy! God is great! God is great!"--Electrolyte channeling the 9/11 hijackers

Admin's Concubine
User avatar
Posts: 30599
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 7:00 pm

Postby pezworld » Fri Oct 03, 2008 7:59 pm

Ya never know. I could just forget to change my vote and nobody else would weigh in... then on election day, Obama's found to have fathered Ann Coulter's secret love child, and this place will go nuts, while I accidentally un-sticky the thread. I'll be depressed as hell, but at least I'll get your sigline! :D
Jesus, you turn your back for one second and the next thing you know, everyone's going all fucking kumbaya and shit around this dump - Moe

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20248
Joined: Tue Jan 04, 2005 12:50 am
Location: Seattle

Postby muthafunky » Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:20 pm

Ah, someone who learned her lesson on The Price is Right!


McCain, 1 EV

Admin's Concubine
User avatar
Posts: 30599
Joined: Fri Jan 28, 2005 7:00 pm

Postby pezworld » Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:26 pm

Nice try, mutha. Not a valid choice though. You pick the winner and how many votes he gets. Has to be above the threshhold.
Jesus, you turn your back for one second and the next thing you know, everyone's going all fucking kumbaya and shit around this dump - Moe

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 3566
Joined: Sun Jan 23, 2005 4:29 am
Location: Where 40 below keeps the riff raff out

Postby Sonora » Fri Oct 03, 2008 8:41 pm

korgy wrote:
salmonid wrote:When's the deadline? I'm not going to blow my 375 EV load before the 2nd debate if I don't have to.


yeah, but someone else might beat you to it.


DeSelby already did.

Stew Ingredient
Posts: 2062
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2006 2:23 pm

Postby Cisco » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:09 am

Deadline?

A month to go and this is still way too difficult to call.

Obama surged when the economic crisis took over the news and people wrongly, but naturally, associated it with the current administration. Palin fumbled her initial interviews and put doubts in peoples' minds about the strength of the Republican ticket.

But now we have a bail out package approved and ready to implement. The economy should stabilize and everyone's fears should be calmed. In a week or two, things may look quite different on the economic front.

Palin seems a viable and competent and personable VP candidate again thereby strengthening the McCain/Palin ticket.

And then there's the Bradley Effect. Will there actually be one, or have we moved beyond it?

Too much time and too many variables.

special sauce
Posts: 5195
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:21 am
Location: two one sic

Postby justinian » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:14 am

Obama, 666.
The HOFF, people! Knight Fuckin' RIDER right in the reclining chair section!! -- nettie

Stew Ingredient
Posts: 2062
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2006 2:23 pm

Postby Cisco » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:15 am

justinian wrote:Obama, 666.



:lol: :lol: :lol:

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 13299
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2008 2:28 pm

Postby Vince » Sat Oct 04, 2008 9:03 am

Cisco wrote:Palin seems a viable and competent and personable VP candidate again thereby strengthening the McCain/Palin ticket.


Good one! keep them coming.
"Do you ski?"
"Do I look like I can ski you fuckhead, I can barely walk."

Stew Ingredient
User avatar
Posts: 20938
Joined: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:55 am
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Postby korgy » Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:20 pm

Cisco wrote:Too much time and too many variables.


according BEA's rules, you're welcome to change your number at any time, but only the last one counts.

c'mon, let us know what you're REALLY thinking...(despite all the spin)
"the rise of Kim Crow"

stewed
User avatar
Posts: 5563
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:54 pm
Location: Outer Banks, North Carolina, USA

Postby AnnieOakley » Sat Oct 04, 2008 3:43 pm

eYe degree. Get in the game, Cisco.
You meet the same folks on the way up as you do on the way down.

Stew Ingredient
Posts: 2062
Joined: Wed Apr 19, 2006 2:23 pm

Postby Cisco » Sat Oct 04, 2008 5:20 pm

AnnieOakley wrote:eYe degree. Get in the game, Cisco.


I will, but not quite yet.

Obama definitely has the edge right now, but in politics a month can be an eternity.

Too much potential volatility to waste time doing the math today.

Next

Return to US Presidential Election 2008

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest